Grey models for data analysis and decision-making in uncertainty during pandemics

IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104881
R. Rajesh
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Abstract

We analyse in this study quite a few uncertain decision-making situations concomitant to a pandemic spread and some of the models using grey theory to deal with such situations. We present four stylised models to tackle different decision support situations at the time of any pandemic crisis, such as COVID-19. Eight diverse problems or situations of risk mitigation and decision-making under uncertainties are proposed in this research and the methodologies employing grey incidence analysis, grey clustering, grey prediction, and grey programming models are offered. Numerical illustrations of the applications of these methodologies are also typified in this paper for future development. A practical application of the widely used grey prediction model is also demonstrated in this study to predict the number of COVID-19 infections and fatalities of five Indian states during a considered period of study. The implications of the study are for data scientists, decision-makers, and practitioners to use the benefits of grey theory in dealing with various situations of uncertainty, such as a spread of a pandemic.

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用于大流行病期间不确定性数据分析和决策的灰色模型
在本研究中,我们分析了与大流行病传播相关的一些不确定决策情况,以及利用灰色理论处理此类情况的一些模型。我们提出了四种风格化模型,以应对任何大流行病危机(如 COVID-19)发生时的不同决策支持情况。本研究提出了八种不同的问题或不确定情况下的风险缓解和决策情况,并提供了采用灰色发生率分析、灰色聚类、灰色预测和灰色编程模型的方法。本文还对这些方法的应用进行了典型的数值说明,以供未来发展参考。本研究还展示了广泛使用的灰色预测模型的实际应用,以预测印度五个邦在研究期间的 COVID-19 感染和死亡人数。本研究的意义在于,数据科学家、决策者和从业人员可以利用灰色理论的优势来处理各种不确定情况,如大流行病的传播。
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来源期刊
International journal of disaster risk reduction
International journal of disaster risk reduction GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARYMETEOROLOGY-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
18.00%
发文量
688
审稿时长
79 days
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international. Key topics:- -multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters -the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques -discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels -disasters associated with climate change -vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends -emerging risks -resilience against disasters. The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.
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