The transition to direct mayoral elections in clientelistic environments: Causal public spending and service delivery effects

IF 5.1 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Journal of Development Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103380
Blane D. Lewis, Sarah Dong
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Abstract

We examine the impact of the transition to direct mayoral elections on district spending and household public service access in Indonesia during a period of momentous national democratic reform. We leverage the arguably exogenous timing of direct local elections to specify a staggered difference-in-differences model, which we estimate using the latest methods to plausibly identify causal effects. We find that the transition to direct elections led to a consistent and large decline in capital spending in both pre- and post-election years. We also determine that the transition resulted in a moderate decrease in household service access in the post-election period. Pre-election capital spending impacts are a function of both general disruptions associated with the transition and emerging clientelism. Service access effects are completely explained by the relative extent of clientelism across districts. We conclude that the local democratic transition in Indonesia had a mostly negative impact on key spending and service outcomes, at least in the short-run and for those districts in which clientelistic practices were especially pronounced.
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在客户至上的环境中向市长直选过渡:公共开支和服务提供的因果效应
我们研究了印度尼西亚在国家民主改革的重要时期,过渡到市长直选对地区支出和家庭公共服务获取的影响。我们利用地方直选这一可以说是外生的时机,指定了一个交错差分模型,并使用最新方法对该模型进行了估计,以合理确定因果效应。我们发现,向直选过渡导致资本支出在选举前和选举后都持续大幅下降。我们还确定,过渡导致家庭服务在选举后阶段适度减少。选举前的资本支出影响是与过渡时期相关的总体干扰和新出现的 "客户主义 "共同作用的结果。服务获取的影响完全可以用各地区 "裙带关系 "的相对程度来解释。我们的结论是,印尼的地方民主转型对主要支出和服务结果大多产生了负面影响,至少在短期内是如此,而且对那些贿选行为特别明显的地区也是如此。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.30
自引率
4.00%
发文量
126
审稿时长
72 days
期刊介绍: The Journal of Development Economics publishes papers relating to all aspects of economic development - from immediate policy concerns to structural problems of underdevelopment. The emphasis is on quantitative or analytical work, which is relevant as well as intellectually stimulating.
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