Interpreting and evaluating digital soil mapping prediction uncertainty: A case study using texture from SoilGrids

Abstract

Soil information is critical for a wide range of land resource and environmental decisions. These decisions will be compromised when the soil information quality is unsatisfactory. Thus, users of soil information need to understand and consider the uncertainty of the available soil information and be able to judge whether it is fit for purpose. The uncertainty information provided with the SoilGrids 2.0 product was examined in a case study. We hypothesised that the soil property predictions for the Netherlands (NL) might be less uncertain than those of New Zealand (NZ) because there were more relevant training data for NL than for NZ. The study objectives were to: 1) understand whether the provided uncertainty information is correct for both countries; 2) explore spatial patterns and relationships in the prediction error and uncertainty information using quantitative tools and new graphical analyses; 3) analyse whether these patterns and relations can be explained; and 4) explore how the uncertainty information and insights derived from graphical analyses might assist an end user to determine whether a map is suitable for their purpose. The study focused on soil texture.

Independent datasets showed that the SoilGrids 2.0 uncertainty information was too optimistic for sand and too pessimistic for clay for both countries. The graphical analyses confirmed the initial assumption that NL predictions were more accurate than those for NZ, but they also indicated that some locations in NL have high uncertainty. The graphical analyses allowed only a limited identification of the four sources of uncertainty in digital soil maps, but were quite insightful in helping us to better understand the reliability of the information. A set of recommendations was developed for both producers and consumers of digital soil mapping (DSM) products. This includes the provision of a summary map of accuracy classes. We suggest that more research and educational effort is needed to ensure that digital soil maps are used appropriately.