Updates to the wild bird abundance and movement models for the early warning system for avian influenza in the EU

Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses pose a significant threat to both poultry and wild bird populations. Migratory wild birds play a key role in the intercontinental spread of avian influenza (AI), introducing the virus into poultry populations. In response to frequent AI outbreaks in Europe, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), at the request of the European Commission (EC), produces quarterly and annual epidemiological reports to monitor and analyse AI trends. A key component of this surveillance includes the integration of outbreak data from Member States and contributions from non-governmental ornithological organisations like the European Bird Census Council (EBCC) and the European Union for Bird Ringing (EURING) together in a predictive spatio-temporal risk assessment model. Previous data integration and modelling efforts led to the development of an early warning system for predicting HPAI outbreaks accessible through a publicly available online user interface: the Bird Flu Radar. This report presents an improvement of the system by expanding the species coverage and refining the existing base models behind the epidemiological model. Specifically, this report details the exploration to incorporate 12 additional wild bird species into the models, and the changes made to the base models predicting the distribution and movements of wild birds. We demonstrate the improvements respecting the existing base models while at the same time enhancing the effectiveness in predicting HPAI outbreaks and possibly mitigating negative effects in Europe by providing more accurate predictions to different stakeholders.