North Dakota corn efficiency frontier: Stochastic frontier analysis

Abstract

According to climate studies in North Dakota, the state's crop-growing season has been extended. In addition, many studies have shown technological advances in crop production. However, the state has not addressed how crop yield has been affected by weather changes. Thus, this paper investigates the state's corn (Zea mays) yield potential and efficiency measures based on agricultural input use and weather variables from 1994 to 2018. We found that the effects of temperature and precipitation on the state's corn yield frontier (potential) were greater than those of changing agricultural input variables. The stochastic frontier model indicates that the proportion of the total variance attributable to inefficiencies or unexpected shifts in the corn yield frontier were primarily (81%) caused by favorable or unfavorable temperature and precipitation variations each year. At least half of the corn-producing districts were technically efficient, reaching at least 85% of yield potential from 1994 to 2018. Thus, better interannual weather forecasting and input use management taking weather risk management into account will bring higher corn yields for North Dakota farmers.