TC-GEN: Data-Driven Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Using Machine Learning-Based High-Resolution Weather Model

Abstract

Synthetic downscaling of tropical cyclones (TCs) is critically important to estimate the long-term hazard of rare high-impact storm events. Existing downscaling approaches rely on statistical or statistical-deterministic models that are capable of generating large samples of synthetic storms with characteristics similar to observed storms. However, these models do not capture the complex two-way interactions between a storm and its environment. In addition, these approaches either necessitate a separate TC size model to simulate storm size or involve post-processing to capture the asymmetries in the simulated surface wind. In this study, we present an innovative data-driven approach for TC synthetic downscaling. Using a machine learning-based high-resolution global weather model (ML-GWM), our approach can simulate the full life cycle of a storm with asymmetric surface wind that accounts for the two-way interactions between the storm and its environment. This approach consists of multiple components: a data-driven model for generating synthetic TC seeds, a blending method that seamlessly integrates storm seeds into the surrounding while maintaining the seed structure, and a model based on a recurrent neural network to correct for biases in storm intensity. Compared to observations and synthetic storms simulated using existing statistical-deterministic and statistical downscaling approaches, our method shows the ability to effectively capture many aspects of TC statistics, including track density, landfall frequency, landfall intensity, and outermost wind extent. Leveraging the computational efficiency of ML-GWM, our approach shows substantial potential for TC regional hazard and risk assessment.