Assessing the evolution of Public Transportation demand over time based on real data through survival analysis in Bologna, Italy

IF 3.5 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Transportation Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI:10.1007/s11116-024-10541-1

Alessandro Nalin, Claudio Lantieri, Valeria Vignali, Andrea Simone

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Abstract

Public Transportation (PT) is a universal service in most countries, and it is acknowledged for its social and environmental role in enhancing accessibility and promoting a sustainable transport system. However, when disruptions alter the service, the level of service (LoS) can be massively affected. Consequently, the perceived quality can be influenced, and users can be encouraged (or forced) to modify their subsequent modal choice, in accordance with the users’ socioeconomic profile. A survival analysis, namely a Cox proportional hazards model, was tested in Bologna, Italy, using real data provided by TPER S.p.A, specifically Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) and Automatic Passenger Counter (APC). This analysis aimed to assess the variations in demand over time taking into account variables related to the socioeconomic characteristics of the demand and several service attributes. The results contribute to the literature in several ways. Firstly, they confirm the predominant role of PT in the modal alternative spectrum of disadvantaged users. Secondly, they provide insights into the perception of quality service among different user categories, including commuters and non-frequent users.

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通过生存分析评估意大利博洛尼亚公共交通需求随时间变化的真实数据

公共交通（PT）在大多数国家都是一项普遍服务，它在提高可达性和促进可持续交通系统方面发挥着公认的社会和环境作用。然而，当服务中断时，服务水平（LoS）会受到巨大影响。因此，用户的感知质量可能会受到影响，从而鼓励（或迫使）用户根据其社会经济状况改变其随后的交通方式选择。在意大利博洛尼亚，利用 TPER S.p.A 提供的真实数据，特别是车辆自动定位（AVL）和乘客自动计数器（APC），对生存分析（即 Cox 比例危险模型）进行了测试。该分析旨在评估需求随时间的变化，同时考虑到与需求的社会经济特征和若干服务属性相关的变量。分析结果在多个方面对相关文献做出了贡献。首先，它们证实了公共交通在弱势用户的模式选择范围中占据主导地位。其次，研究还深入分析了不同用户类别（包括通勤者和非经常使用者）对优质服务的看法。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transportation 工程技术-工程：土木

CiteScore

10.70

自引率

4.70%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： In our first issue, published in 1972, we explained that this Journal is intended to promote the free and vigorous exchange of ideas and experience among the worldwide community actively concerned with transportation policy, planning and practice. That continues to be our mission, with a clear focus on topics concerned with research and practice in transportation policy and planning, around the world. These four words, policy and planning, research and practice are our key words. While we have a particular focus on transportation policy analysis and travel behaviour in the context of ground transportation, we willingly consider all good quality papers that are highly relevant to transportation policy, planning and practice with a clear focus on innovation, on extending the international pool of knowledge and understanding. Our interest is not only with transportation policies - and systems and services – but also with their social, economic and environmental impacts, However, papers about the application of established procedures to, or the development of plans or policies for, specific locations are unlikely to prove acceptable unless they report experience which will be of real benefit those working elsewhere. Papers concerned with the engineering, safety and operational management of transportation systems are outside our scope.