High-speed rail in shrinking cities: A weapon for downturn or a catalyst for change

Abstract

The approach to alleviating the recession by expanding of high-speed rail (HSR) network needs to be treated cautiously. The structural adjustment of shrinking cities provides a perspective to evaluate the broader impact of HSR. Comparing the change characteristics of population and industrial structure of HSR cities and non-HSR cities before and after HSR service, we analyze the effect of HSR on the industrial transformation of shrinking cities and its spatio-temporal differences in Northeast China. Findings show that HSR has a positive effect on decelerating population shrinkage and fostering manufacturing advancing at regional level. The specific patterns display heterogeneity: it has exacerbated the development gap between cities on the main lines versus other cities, but also meaningfully transformed the industrial structure of cities along the branch HSR lines; different HSR lines has promote their respective regions' development based on their existing advantages; the sources and types of industrial transfer played key roles in the divergence of HSR effects on shrinking cities. The paper argues that HSR is more effective in promoting development based on proactive transformation efforts and available industrial functions; otherwise, it may primarily serve as a new mode of transportation without fully acting as a driver of urban development.