Offshore carbon storage from power plants based on real option and multi‐period source‐sink matching: A case study in the eastern coastal China

Abstract

Carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) emerges as a pivotal strategy for CO₂ reduction in the power sector, particularly focusing on the overlooked domain of offshore storage along China's east coast. In spite of the potential high costs, irreversible investments, and lengthy development, offshore storage can still be prospective. Considering autonomous decision-making among emission sources, this study pioneers a CO₂ offshore storage investment decision model tailored for coal-fired and gas-fired power plants. Innovating an offshore storage source-sink matching model with a real options model and introducing a pipeline network optimization model allows a realistic source-sink matching strategy to be explored under optimal investment timing. According to the results, among 154 large stationary emission sources in Zhejiang Province, offshore storage could reduce CO₂ emissions by 4.59 Gt, utilizing the Qiantang, Minjiang, and Fuzhou depressions. It is economically feasible to implement offshore storage with a whole-process unit cost of 368.8 CNY/t_CO2, mainly dominated by capture costs. A hybrid carbon tax-subsidy policy promotes carbon reduction and economic benefits, offering a more effective incentive for emission sources to invest in offshore storage than a single policy. At a hybrid policy price of 250 CNY/t_CO2, all 27 selected emission sources are projected to invest in offshore storage by 2048, with a preference for the Qiantang depression as the storage site. Practically, this study provides important technical support and guidance for the large-scale deployment of offshore storage.