{"title":"Estimation of VaR with jump process: Application in corn and soybean markets","authors":"Minglian Lin, Indranil SenGupta, William Wilson","doi":"10.1002/asmb.2880","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Value at risk (VaR) is a quantitative measure used to evaluate the risk linked to the potential loss of investment or capital. Estimation of the VaR entails the quantification of prospective losses in a portfolio of investments, using a certain likelihood, under normal market conditions within a specific time period. The objective of this article is to construct a model and estimate the VaR for a diversified portfolio consisting of multiple cash commodity positions driven by standard Brownian motions and jump processes. Subsequently, a thorough analytical estimation of the VaR is conducted for the proposed model. The results are then applied to two distinct commodities—corn and soybean—enabling a comprehensive comparison of the VaR values in the presence and absence of jumps.</p>","PeriodicalId":55495,"journal":{"name":"Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asmb.2880","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Value at risk (VaR) is a quantitative measure used to evaluate the risk linked to the potential loss of investment or capital. Estimation of the VaR entails the quantification of prospective losses in a portfolio of investments, using a certain likelihood, under normal market conditions within a specific time period. The objective of this article is to construct a model and estimate the VaR for a diversified portfolio consisting of multiple cash commodity positions driven by standard Brownian motions and jump processes. Subsequently, a thorough analytical estimation of the VaR is conducted for the proposed model. The results are then applied to two distinct commodities—corn and soybean—enabling a comprehensive comparison of the VaR values in the presence and absence of jumps.
期刊介绍：
ASMBI - Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry (formerly Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis) was first published in 1985, publishing contributions in the interface between stochastic modelling, data analysis and their applications in business, finance, insurance, management and production. In 2007 ASMBI became the official journal of the International Society for Business and Industrial Statistics (www.isbis.org). The main objective is to publish papers, both technical and practical, presenting new results which solve real-life problems or have great potential in doing so. Mathematical rigour, innovative stochastic modelling and sound applications are the key ingredients of papers to be published, after a very selective review process.
The journal is very open to new ideas, like Data Science and Big Data stemming from problems in business and industry or uncertainty quantification in engineering, as well as more traditional ones, like reliability, quality control, design of experiments, managerial processes, supply chains and inventories, insurance, econometrics, financial modelling (provided the papers are related to real problems). The journal is interested also in papers addressing the effects of business and industrial decisions on the environment, healthcare, social life. State-of-the art computational methods are very welcome as well, when combined with sound applications and innovative models.
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