Estimation of VaR with jump process: Application in corn and soybean markets

IF 1.3 4区 数学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry Pub Date : 2024-06-15 DOI:10.1002/asmb.2880
Minglian Lin, Indranil SenGupta, William Wilson
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Abstract

Value at risk (VaR) is a quantitative measure used to evaluate the risk linked to the potential loss of investment or capital. Estimation of the VaR entails the quantification of prospective losses in a portfolio of investments, using a certain likelihood, under normal market conditions within a specific time period. The objective of this article is to construct a model and estimate the VaR for a diversified portfolio consisting of multiple cash commodity positions driven by standard Brownian motions and jump processes. Subsequently, a thorough analytical estimation of the VaR is conducted for the proposed model. The results are then applied to two distinct commodities—corn and soybean—enabling a comprehensive comparison of the VaR values in the presence and absence of jumps.

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利用跳跃过程估算 VaR:在玉米和大豆市场中的应用
风险价值(VaR)是一种量化指标,用于评估与投资或资本潜在损失相关的风险。估算风险价值需要在特定时间段内的正常市场条件下,利用某种可能性对投资组合的预期损失进行量化。本文的目的是构建一个模型,并估算由标准布朗运动和跃迁过程驱动的多种现货商品仓位组成的多元化投资组合的风险价值。随后,对所提出的模型进行了全面的风险价值分析估算。然后将结果应用于两种不同的商品--玉米和大豆--对存在和不存在跳跃时的风险价值进行全面比较。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
67
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: ASMBI - Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry (formerly Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis) was first published in 1985, publishing contributions in the interface between stochastic modelling, data analysis and their applications in business, finance, insurance, management and production. In 2007 ASMBI became the official journal of the International Society for Business and Industrial Statistics (www.isbis.org). The main objective is to publish papers, both technical and practical, presenting new results which solve real-life problems or have great potential in doing so. Mathematical rigour, innovative stochastic modelling and sound applications are the key ingredients of papers to be published, after a very selective review process. The journal is very open to new ideas, like Data Science and Big Data stemming from problems in business and industry or uncertainty quantification in engineering, as well as more traditional ones, like reliability, quality control, design of experiments, managerial processes, supply chains and inventories, insurance, econometrics, financial modelling (provided the papers are related to real problems). The journal is interested also in papers addressing the effects of business and industrial decisions on the environment, healthcare, social life. State-of-the art computational methods are very welcome as well, when combined with sound applications and innovative models.
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