The neglect of the change in inundation area leads to overestimation of carbon emission in cascade reservoirs.

Abstract

Reservoir carbon emissions reflect greenhouse gases emitted by flooded land post-construction. However, pre-construction flooded land has been overlooked in previous assessments. Utilizing annual land cover data from 1990 to 2022 and pertinent parameters of cascade reservoirs in the Lancang River (LCR), we calculated the actual flooded areas of these reservoirs. Subsequently, the Tier1 model was employed to estimate the carbon emissions during the reservoir's life cycle and the annual carbon emissions from newly flooded land during construction. Our findings indicate that the LCR cascade reservoir's carbon emission throughout its life cycle is 4.324Tg CO_2eq (1.818-8.879Tg CO_2eq). When compared with previous results, our estimated figures (0.496-2.106 g CO_2eq/(kw·h)) fall below the global hydroelectric carbon footprint's average threshold range (IPCC: 4-14 g CO_2eq/(kW·h)). This implies that the previously estimated carbon emissions from the reservoir may be inflated due to the flooded land prior to reservoir construction. Notably, the nutrient state of the water body predominantly governs reservoir carbon emissions. This research sheds light on the intricacies of carbon emissions from cascade reservoirs and underscores the importance of accurately delineating reservoir boundaries and managing nutrient inputs to mitigate carbon emissions.