Associations between anthropometric indices as complementary predictors and incidence of type 2 diabetes; Panasonic Cohort Study 21

Abstract

Aims

To compare the predictive abilities of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-corrected BMI (wBMI), a body shape index (ABSI), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) for the incidence of type 2 diabetes and determine the practical cut-off values for the Japanese population.

Methods

This study used data from 155,623 participants who had medical checkups with Panasonic Corporation between 2008 and 2021. Predictive abilities of anthropometric indices were evaluated at 13 years using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses.

Results

8,800 developed type 2 diabetes during the study period. The area under the ROC curve for the WHtR was high (0.717, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.710–0.724), with cut-off value of 0.497 in men, while those for wBMI (0.829, 95 % CI: 0.808–0.848) and WHtR (0.826, 95 % CI: 0.806–0.845) were high in women, with cut-off values of 18.6 kg/m and 0.510, respectively. It was also showed WHtR was the most effective in men, while WHtR and wBMI outperformed WC and were comparable to BMI in women for predicting type 2 diabetes.

Conclusions

WHtR demonstrated superior effectiveness in predicting type 2 diabetes in men, while both WHtR and wBMI showed higher effectiveness than WC and were almost equivalent to BMI in women.