Association of Involuntary Displacement of People Experiencing Homelessness and Crime in Denver, CO: A Spatiotemporal Analysis.

Abstract

In 2022, approximately 580,000 people experienced homelessness in the United States. In response, many cities have implemented "camping ban" policies enforced by involuntary displacement of homeless encampments. Displacement has been cited as a strategy to protect public health and safety. However, there is mixed evidence that displacement is effective in reducing crime, while it is associated with other adverse health outcomes. To evaluate the neighborhood-level association between displacement and crime, we performed a retrospective (November 2019 to July 2023) pre-post spatiotemporal analysis using administrative data from Denver, CO. We used the Knox test statistic to detect excess clustering and change in total crime, as well as crime stratified by the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) category, within spatiotemporal proximity to displacement events. We found that, on average, clustering of crime is high both before and after displacement. Within a 0.25-mile radius, displacement is associated with a statistically significant but modest decrease in crime, between - 9.3% within 7 days (p < 0.001) and - 3.9% within 21 days (p = 0.002). We found no consistent change in composite crime at a 0.5- or 0.75-mile radius. Hyperlocal decreases were driven by significant decreases in public disorder and auto theft, while crimes against persons increased and displayed high clustering post-displacement. There were no changes in any other offense type. Involuntary displacement is not consistently associated with changes in clustering of crime and may exacerbate violence in nearby areas.