When conflict becomes calamity: Understanding the role of armed conflict dynamics in natural disasters

Abstract

Can armed conflict amplify the societal impacts and humanitarian consequences of natural hazards? Given that these hazards affect millions of people worldwide and that climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, it is paramount that we advance our understanding of what makes societies vulnerable to these hazards. Existing research has focused mainly on political violence as a consequence of natural hazard-related disasters but has neglected that conflict can also be an underlying factor that shapes the impact of these events. Consequently, we know little about whether and how exposure to violent armed conflict increases vulnerability to natural hazards. This study argues that the local dynamics of conflict can have a significant effect on vulnerability and empirically investigates how periods of high-intensity conflict can affect the humanitarian consequences of natural hazards in the context of tropical cyclones in the Philippines. By combining data on physical storm exposure with highly detailed subnational data on disaster fatalities and conflict events, the empirical analysis allows the identification of the independent effect of conflict on hazard impacts. Results show that local periods of high-intensity conflict significantly increase the humanitarian consequences of natural hazards. These results have important implications for research investigating the impacts of disasters on peace and conflict, as they show that the consequences of natural disasters depend fundamentally on pre-existing conflict dynamics.