Meteorological factors associated with dry thunderstorms and simultaneous lightning-ignited wildfires: The 15 June 2022 outbreak in Catalonia

Abstract

Summer heatwaves and extended dry spells create optimal meteorological conditions for occasional dry thunderstorms to produce simultaneous lightning-ignited wildfires (LIW). Concurrent ignitions put a significant burden on the firefighting's initial attack, potentially allowing incipient LIWs to escape and grow into large fires. While we can reasonably forecast lightning activity, predicting dry thunderstorm conditions and potential LIW outbreaks remains challenging. In the present study, we analyze the meteorological factors associated with a LIW outbreak that took place in Catalonia on 15 June 2022, with 22 LIW reported in three consecutive days. The fire hazard was high, but not different from past LIW episodes. ERA5-derived indices related to low-level moisture showed extreme values compared to previous studies. Atmospheric conditions with an elevated lifting condensation level coupled with the synoptic framework were set for the formation of dry thunderstorms. Radar reflectivity profiles revealed sub-cloud evaporation, and rain-gauge records corroborated the occurrence of dry lightning. In the context of global warming, we expect an increase in the frequency of LIW outbreaks in the European Mediterranean region due to an increase in lightning-ignition efficiency, which refers to the average chance of fire per lightning stroke.