A conceptual health state diagram for modelling the transmission of a (re)emerging infectious respiratory disease in a human population.

IF 3.4 3区 医学 Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES BMC Infectious Diseases Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI:10.1186/s12879-024-10017-8
Marc Avramov, Vanessa Gabriele-Rivet, Rachael M Milwid, Victoria Ng, Nicholas H Ogden, Valerie Hongoh
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Abstract

Mathematical modelling of (re)emerging infectious respiratory diseases among humans poses multiple challenges for modellers, which can arise as a result of limited data and surveillance, uncertainty in the natural history of the disease, as well as public health and individual responses to outbreaks. Here, we propose a COVID-19-inspired health state diagram (HSD) to serve as a foundational framework for conceptualising the modelling process for (re)emerging respiratory diseases, and public health responses, in the early stages of their emergence. The HSD aims to serve as a starting point for reflection on the structure and parameterisation of a transmission model to assess the impact of the (re)emerging disease and the capacity of public health interventions to control transmission. We also explore the adaptability of the HSD to different (re)emerging diseases using the characteristics of three respiratory diseases of historical public health importance. We outline key questions to contemplate when applying and adapting this HSD to (re)emerging infectious diseases and provide reflections on adapting the framework for public health-related interventions.

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用于模拟(再)出现的呼吸道传染病在人群中传播的概念健康状态图。
由于数据和监测有限、疾病自然史的不确定性以及公共卫生和个人对疾病爆发的反应,对人类(再)新发传染性呼吸道疾病的数学建模给建模者带来了多重挑战。在此,我们提出了一个受 COVID-19 启发的健康状态图(HSD),作为一个基础框架,用于概念化(再)新发呼吸道疾病的建模过程,以及在其出现的早期阶段的公共卫生应对措施。HSD 旨在作为思考传播模型结构和参数化的起点,以评估(再)新出现疾病的影响和公共卫生干预措施控制传播的能力。我们还利用历史上对公共卫生具有重要意义的三种呼吸道疾病的特点,探讨了 HSD 对不同(再)新出现疾病的适应性。我们概述了在将(再)新出现的传染病应用和调整 HSD 时需要考虑的关键问题,并对调整该框架用于公共卫生相关干预措施进行了思考。
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来源期刊
BMC Infectious Diseases
BMC Infectious Diseases 医学-传染病学
CiteScore
6.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
860
审稿时长
3.3 months
期刊介绍: BMC Infectious Diseases is an open access, peer-reviewed journal that considers articles on all aspects of the prevention, diagnosis and management of infectious and sexually transmitted diseases in humans, as well as related molecular genetics, pathophysiology, and epidemiology.
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