{"title":"Bayesian intelligence for medical diagnosis: a pilot study on patient disposition for emergency medicine chest pain.","authors":"Mark W Perlin, Yves-Dany Accilien","doi":"10.1515/dx-2024-0049","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>Clinicians can rapidly and accurately diagnose disease, learn from experience, and explain their reasoning. Computational Bayesian medical decision-making might replicate this expertise. This paper assesses a computer system for diagnosing cardiac chest pain in the emergency department (ED) that decides whether to admit or discharge a patient.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The system can learn likelihood functions by counting data frequency. The computer compares patient and disease data profiles using likelihood. It calculates a Bayesian probabilistic diagnosis and explains its reasoning. A utility function applies the probabilistic diagnosis to produce a numerical BAYES score for making a medical decision.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We conducted a pilot study to assess BAYES efficacy in ED chest pain patient disposition. Binary BAYES decisions eliminated patient observation. We compared BAYES to the HEART score. On 100 patients, BAYES reduced HEART's false positive rate 18-fold from 58.7 to 3.3 %, and improved ROC AUC accuracy from 0.928 to 1.0.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The pilot study results were encouraging. The data-driven BAYES score approach could learn from frequency counting, make fast and accurate decisions, and explain its reasoning. The computer replicated these aspects of diagnostic expertise. More research is needed to reproduce and extend these finding to larger diverse patient populations.</p>","PeriodicalId":11273,"journal":{"name":"Diagnosis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Diagnosis","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1515/dx-2024-0049","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Objectives: Clinicians can rapidly and accurately diagnose disease, learn from experience, and explain their reasoning. Computational Bayesian medical decision-making might replicate this expertise. This paper assesses a computer system for diagnosing cardiac chest pain in the emergency department (ED) that decides whether to admit or discharge a patient.
Methods: The system can learn likelihood functions by counting data frequency. The computer compares patient and disease data profiles using likelihood. It calculates a Bayesian probabilistic diagnosis and explains its reasoning. A utility function applies the probabilistic diagnosis to produce a numerical BAYES score for making a medical decision.
Results: We conducted a pilot study to assess BAYES efficacy in ED chest pain patient disposition. Binary BAYES decisions eliminated patient observation. We compared BAYES to the HEART score. On 100 patients, BAYES reduced HEART's false positive rate 18-fold from 58.7 to 3.3 %, and improved ROC AUC accuracy from 0.928 to 1.0.
Conclusions: The pilot study results were encouraging. The data-driven BAYES score approach could learn from frequency counting, make fast and accurate decisions, and explain its reasoning. The computer replicated these aspects of diagnostic expertise. More research is needed to reproduce and extend these finding to larger diverse patient populations.
期刊介绍:
Diagnosis focuses on how diagnosis can be advanced, how it is taught, and how and why it can fail, leading to diagnostic errors. The journal welcomes both fundamental and applied works, improvement initiatives, opinions, and debates to encourage new thinking on improving this critical aspect of healthcare quality. Topics: -Factors that promote diagnostic quality and safety -Clinical reasoning -Diagnostic errors in medicine -The factors that contribute to diagnostic error: human factors, cognitive issues, and system-related breakdowns -Improving the value of diagnosis – eliminating waste and unnecessary testing -How culture and removing blame promote awareness of diagnostic errors -Training and education related to clinical reasoning and diagnostic skills -Advances in laboratory testing and imaging that improve diagnostic capability -Local, national and international initiatives to reduce diagnostic error