{"title":"From COVID-19 to monkeypox: a novel predictive model for emerging infectious diseases.","authors":"Deren Xu, Weng Howe Chan, Habibollah Haron, Hui Wen Nies, Kohbalan Moorthy","doi":"10.1186/s13040-024-00396-8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The outbreak of emerging infectious diseases poses significant challenges to global public health. Accurate early forecasting is crucial for effective resource allocation and emergency response planning. This study aims to develop a comprehensive predictive model for emerging infectious diseases, integrating the blending framework, transfer learning, incremental learning, and the biological feature Rt to increase prediction accuracy and practicality. By transferring features from a COVID-19 dataset to a monkeypox dataset and introducing dynamically updated incremental learning techniques, the model's predictive capability in data-scarce scenarios was significantly improved. The research findings demonstrate that the blending framework performs exceptionally well in short-term (7-day) predictions. Furthermore, the combination of transfer learning and incremental learning techniques significantly enhanced the adaptability and precision, with a 91.41% improvement in the RMSE and an 89.13% improvement in the MAE. In particular, the inclusion of the Rt feature enabled the model to more accurately reflect the dynamics of disease spread, further improving the RMSE by 1.91% and the MAE by 2.17%. This study underscores the significant application potential of multimodel fusion and real-time data updates in infectious disease prediction, offering new theoretical perspectives and technical support. This research not only enriches the theoretical foundation of infectious disease prediction models but also provides reliable technical support for public health emergency responses. Future research should continue to explore integrating data from multiple sources and enhancing model generalization capabilities to further enhance the practicality and reliability of predictive tools.</p>","PeriodicalId":48947,"journal":{"name":"Biodata Mining","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11494870/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Biodata Mining","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13040-024-00396-8","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The outbreak of emerging infectious diseases poses significant challenges to global public health. Accurate early forecasting is crucial for effective resource allocation and emergency response planning. This study aims to develop a comprehensive predictive model for emerging infectious diseases, integrating the blending framework, transfer learning, incremental learning, and the biological feature Rt to increase prediction accuracy and practicality. By transferring features from a COVID-19 dataset to a monkeypox dataset and introducing dynamically updated incremental learning techniques, the model's predictive capability in data-scarce scenarios was significantly improved. The research findings demonstrate that the blending framework performs exceptionally well in short-term (7-day) predictions. Furthermore, the combination of transfer learning and incremental learning techniques significantly enhanced the adaptability and precision, with a 91.41% improvement in the RMSE and an 89.13% improvement in the MAE. In particular, the inclusion of the Rt feature enabled the model to more accurately reflect the dynamics of disease spread, further improving the RMSE by 1.91% and the MAE by 2.17%. This study underscores the significant application potential of multimodel fusion and real-time data updates in infectious disease prediction, offering new theoretical perspectives and technical support. This research not only enriches the theoretical foundation of infectious disease prediction models but also provides reliable technical support for public health emergency responses. Future research should continue to explore integrating data from multiple sources and enhancing model generalization capabilities to further enhance the practicality and reliability of predictive tools.
期刊介绍:
BioData Mining is an open access, open peer-reviewed journal encompassing research on all aspects of data mining applied to high-dimensional biological and biomedical data, focusing on computational aspects of knowledge discovery from large-scale genetic, transcriptomic, genomic, proteomic, and metabolomic data.
Topical areas include, but are not limited to:
-Development, evaluation, and application of novel data mining and machine learning algorithms.
-Adaptation, evaluation, and application of traditional data mining and machine learning algorithms.
-Open-source software for the application of data mining and machine learning algorithms.
-Design, development and integration of databases, software and web services for the storage, management, retrieval, and analysis of data from large scale studies.
-Pre-processing, post-processing, modeling, and interpretation of data mining and machine learning results for biological interpretation and knowledge discovery.