Autocorrelations of the Wolf Number Cycle Fragments and Solar Half-Cycle Forecast

IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Geomagnetism and Aeronomy Pub Date : 2024-10-27 DOI:10.1134/S0016793224600577
S. V. Yakovleva, S. V. Starchenko
{"title":"Autocorrelations of the Wolf Number Cycle Fragments and Solar Half-Cycle Forecast","authors":"S. V. Yakovleva,&nbsp;S. V. Starchenko","doi":"10.1134/S0016793224600577","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Autocorrelations of fragments of the Wolf number series (<i>V</i>2) are considered for 6-year forecasting (solar half-cycle). For physical and optimal reasons, fragments similar to one and half cycles are used. Testing is successfully performed on sufficiently reliable pairs of fragments of the series consisting of a fixed and a time-shifted fragment. A pair is selected for testing if the correlation coefficient is 0.91 or more when its components are combined. The original modification of the fixed fragment and the parts of the series following it are used. Similarly, 6-year forecasts after 2023 are produced from the fragment (2008.5–2023.5), which has correlation coefficients from 0.81 to 0.96 with fragments (1978.5–1993.5), (1901.5–1916.5), (1922.5–1937.5), (1964.5–1979.5), and (1985.5–2000.5). The maximum Wolf number (161 ± 30) is expected in mid-2024.</p>","PeriodicalId":55597,"journal":{"name":"Geomagnetism and Aeronomy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geomagnetism and Aeronomy","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1134/S0016793224600577","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Autocorrelations of fragments of the Wolf number series (V2) are considered for 6-year forecasting (solar half-cycle). For physical and optimal reasons, fragments similar to one and half cycles are used. Testing is successfully performed on sufficiently reliable pairs of fragments of the series consisting of a fixed and a time-shifted fragment. A pair is selected for testing if the correlation coefficient is 0.91 or more when its components are combined. The original modification of the fixed fragment and the parts of the series following it are used. Similarly, 6-year forecasts after 2023 are produced from the fragment (2008.5–2023.5), which has correlation coefficients from 0.81 to 0.96 with fragments (1978.5–1993.5), (1901.5–1916.5), (1922.5–1937.5), (1964.5–1979.5), and (1985.5–2000.5). The maximum Wolf number (161 ± 30) is expected in mid-2024.

Abstract Image

查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
狼数周期片段的自相关性与太阳半周期预测
考虑了沃尔夫数列(V2)片段的自相关性,用于 6 年预报(太阳半周期)。由于物理和优化原因,使用了类似于一个周期和半个周期的片段。测试在由固定片段和时移片段组成的足够可靠的序列片段对上成功进行。如果一对片段的相关系数大于或等于 0.91,则可以对其进行测试。使用固定片段的原始修改和其后的序列部分。同样,2023 年之后的 6 年预测由片段 (2008.5-2023.5) 生成,该片段与片段 (1978.5-1993.5)、(1901.5-1916.5)、(1922.5-1937.5)、(1964.5-1979.5) 和 (1985.5-2000.5) 的相关系数为 0.81 至 0.96。狼的最大数量(161 ± 30)预计将出现在 2024 年中期。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 去求助
来源期刊
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy Earth and Planetary Sciences-Space and Planetary Science
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
33.30%
发文量
65
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Geomagnetism and Aeronomy is a bimonthly periodical that covers the fields of interplanetary space; geoeffective solar events; the magnetosphere; the ionosphere; the upper and middle atmosphere; the action of solar variability and activity on atmospheric parameters and climate; the main magnetic field and its secular variations, excursion, and inversion; and other related topics.
期刊最新文献
Calculation of Geomagnetic Cutoff Rigidity Using Tracing Based on the Buneman–Boris Method Evaluation of Dynamic Attributes and Variability of Ionospheric Slant Total Electron Content Using NavIC Satellite System Predicting the Unpredictable: Advancements in Earthquake Forecasting Using Artificial Intelligence and LSTM Networks Ionospheric Whispers of the Earth’s Tremors: Decoding TEC Mysteries in the East Anatolian Fault Zone On the Possible Relationship of a Set of Statistically Revealed Quasi-Linear Local Trends of Variations in the Magnetic Field Parameters Prior to Earthquakes in Seismically Active Zones of the Black Sea, Caucasus, and Western Asia
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1