Ewan Carr, Marcella Rietschel, Ole Mors, Neven Henigsberg, Katherine J Aitchison, Wolfgang Maier, Rudolf Uher, Anne Farmer, Peter McGuffin, Raquel Iniesta
{"title":"Optimizing the Prediction of Depression Remission: A Longitudinal Machine Learning Approach.","authors":"Ewan Carr, Marcella Rietschel, Ole Mors, Neven Henigsberg, Katherine J Aitchison, Wolfgang Maier, Rudolf Uher, Anne Farmer, Peter McGuffin, Raquel Iniesta","doi":"10.1002/ajmg.b.33014","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Decisions about when to change antidepressant treatment are complex and benefit from accurate prediction of treatment outcome. Prognostic accuracy can be enhanced by incorporating repeated assessments of symptom severity collected during treatment. Participants (n = 714) from the Genome-Based Therapeutic Drugs for Depression study received escitalopram or nortriptyline over 12 weeks. Remission was defined as scoring ≤ 7 on the Hamilton Rating Scale. Predictors included demographic, clinical, and genetic variables (at 0 weeks) and measures of symptom severity (at 0, 2, 4, and 6 weeks). Longitudinal descriptors extracted with growth curves and topological data analysis were used to inform prediction of remission. Repeated assessments produced gradual and drug-specific improvements in predictive performance. By Week 4, models' discrimination in all samples reached levels that might usefully inform treatment decisions (area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) = 0.777 for nortriptyline; AUC = 0.807 for escitalopram; AUC = 0.794 for combined sample). Decisions around switching or modifying treatments for depression can be informed by repeated symptom assessments collected during treatment, but not until 4 weeks after the start of treatment.</p>","PeriodicalId":7673,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Medical Genetics Part B: Neuropsychiatric Genetics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"American Journal of Medical Genetics Part B: Neuropsychiatric Genetics","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ajmg.b.33014","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"GENETICS & HEREDITY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Decisions about when to change antidepressant treatment are complex and benefit from accurate prediction of treatment outcome. Prognostic accuracy can be enhanced by incorporating repeated assessments of symptom severity collected during treatment. Participants (n = 714) from the Genome-Based Therapeutic Drugs for Depression study received escitalopram or nortriptyline over 12 weeks. Remission was defined as scoring ≤ 7 on the Hamilton Rating Scale. Predictors included demographic, clinical, and genetic variables (at 0 weeks) and measures of symptom severity (at 0, 2, 4, and 6 weeks). Longitudinal descriptors extracted with growth curves and topological data analysis were used to inform prediction of remission. Repeated assessments produced gradual and drug-specific improvements in predictive performance. By Week 4, models' discrimination in all samples reached levels that might usefully inform treatment decisions (area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) = 0.777 for nortriptyline; AUC = 0.807 for escitalopram; AUC = 0.794 for combined sample). Decisions around switching or modifying treatments for depression can be informed by repeated symptom assessments collected during treatment, but not until 4 weeks after the start of treatment.
期刊介绍:
Neuropsychiatric Genetics, Part B of the American Journal of Medical Genetics (AJMG) , provides a forum for experimental and clinical investigations of the genetic mechanisms underlying neurologic and psychiatric disorders. It is a resource for novel genetics studies of the heritable nature of psychiatric and other nervous system disorders, characterized at the molecular, cellular or behavior levels. Neuropsychiatric Genetics publishes eight times per year.