Structural Uncertainty in the Sensitivity of Urban Temperatures to Anthropogenic Heat Flux

IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI:10.1029/2024MS004431
Dan Li, Ting Sun, Jiachuan Yang, Ning Zhang, Pouya Vahmani, Andrew Jones
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Abstract

One key source of uncertainty for weather and climate models is structural uncertainty arising from the fact that these models must simplify or approximate complex physical, chemical, and biological processes that occur in the real world. However, structural uncertainty is rarely examined in the context of simulated effects of anthropogenic heat flux in cities. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model, it is found that the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature to anthropogenic heat flux can differ by an order of magnitude depending on how anthropogenic heat flux is released to the urban environment. Moreover, varying model structures through changing the treatment of roof-air interaction and the parameterization of convective heat transfer between the canopy air and the atmosphere can affect the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature by a factor of 4. Urban surface temperature and 2-m air temperature are less sensitive to the methods of anthropogenic heat flux release and the examined model structural variants than urban canopy air temperature, but their sensitivities to anthropogenic heat flux can still vary by as much as a factor of 4 for surface temperature and 2 for 2-m air temperature. Our study recommends using temperature sensitivity instead of temperature response to understand how various physical processes (and their representations in numerical models) modulate the simulated effects of anthropogenic heat flux.

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城市温度对人为热通量敏感性的结构不确定性
天气和气候模式不确定性的一个主要来源是结构不确定性,因为这些模式必须简化或近似现实世界中发生的复杂物理、化学和生物过程。然而,结构不确定性很少在模拟城市人为热通量影响的背景下进行研究。利用天气研究与预报(WRF)模型和单层城市冠层模型,研究发现,城市冠层气温对人为热通量的敏感性可能相差一个数量级,这取决于人为热通量是如何释放到城市环境中的。此外,通过改变屋顶-空气相互作用的处理方法和冠层空气与大气之间对流换热的参数化来改变模型结构,可将城市冠层空气温度的敏感性提高 4 倍。 与城市冠层空气温度相比,城市地表温度和 2 米空气温度对人为热通量释放方法和所研究的模型结构变体的敏感性较低,但它们对人为热通量的敏感性仍然会有多达 4 倍的差异(地表温度)和 2 米空气温度的差异(2 倍)。我们的研究建议使用温度敏感性而不是温度响应来了解各种物理过程(及其在数值模式中的表现形式)如何调节人为热通量的模拟效应。
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来源期刊
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
11.40
自引率
11.80%
发文量
241
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (JAMES) is committed to advancing the science of Earth systems modeling by offering high-quality scientific research through online availability and open access licensing. JAMES invites authors and readers from the international Earth systems modeling community. Open access. Articles are available free of charge for everyone with Internet access to view and download. Formal peer review. Supplemental material, such as code samples, images, and visualizations, is published at no additional charge. No additional charge for color figures. Modest page charges to cover production costs. Articles published in high-quality full text PDF, HTML, and XML. Internal and external reference linking, DOI registration, and forward linking via CrossRef.
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