Water Budget Input Linked to Atmospheric Rivers in British Columbia's Nechako River Basin

Abstract

This study explores the contribution of atmospheric rivers (ARs) to the water budget input of the Nechako River Basin (NRB) in British Columbia (BC), western Canada. The study quantifies the fraction of precipitation, rainfall, snowfall, and snow water equivalent (SWE) associated with ARs at multiple scales and tests for trends using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test. AR-related totals for 1950–2021 were created by linking AR events to water budget input variables of the ERA5-Land reanalysis product on a daily scale. Associations with different phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern and AR-related contributions to the NRB are also investigated. Results indicate an increasing fractional contribution of rain in ARs landfalling in the NRB in the last two decades (2000–2019). Moreover, 21% of the total annual precipitation in the NRB is associated with ARs, with decreasing contributions from west to east. October has higher AR-related total precipitation than other months, while March, May and June are the least affected. ARs contribute disproportionately more to mid- and high-intensity daily precipitation totals, and provide up to 45% and 24% of the seasonal rainfall and snowfall, respectively. AR-related SWE is relatively higher in autumn due to the increased frequency and intensity of ARs, resulting in a greater fractional contribution of ARs to the snowpack compared to winter. ARs influence snowpack accumulation during fall (18%) and winter (13%) but also increase the risk of natural hazards. The MK test for AR-related water budget variables on the annual scale identified no significant trends. However, AR-related snowfall shows decreasing trends in the NRB, more specifically in the Upper Nechako, Lower Nechako and Stellako sub-basins during the summer. Over the study period, ARs consistently contribute up to one-fifth of the annual input to the NRB's water budget. This study provides the first quantitative assessment and trend analyses of AR contributions to the water budget input of a reservoir-regulated watershed in north-central BC, yielding valuable information for hydropower production, ecological flows, irrigation, domestic and industrial water use.