A Synoptic Scale Perspective of Solar Forcing on Extreme Precipitation and Floods Over Europe During Summer

Abstract

The relationship between total solar irradiance (TSI) forcing and summer extreme precipitation and flood frequency over western Europe is investigated from a synoptic-scale perspective, with a focus on the role of Rossby wave packets (RWPs). Utilizing observational, model, and proxy data, we reveal a significant increase in RWP frequency along a zonal band centered around 50°N, extending from North America to western Europe, during periods of low TSI. This anomaly in RWP frequency is consistent with a significant increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events recorded over western Europe. Sensitivity experiments conducted with a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model corroborate our findings based on observational data. Additionally, a flood record from western Europe demonstrates a significant increase in flood frequency during low TSI years, a relationship that persists across timescales. We argue that the frequency patterns associated with TSI forcing presented in this study are robust and, therefore, valuable for estimating the frequency of extreme precipitation events over western Europe under various solar irradiance scenarios. Moreover, our findings indicate that the North Atlantic sector is more responsive to changes in solar forcing during the boreal summer than previously thought, with this effect manifesting primarily on synoptic timescales rather than the long-term climatological mean.