Seismic risk estimates for reinforced concrete structures with incorporation of corrosion and aftershock

IF 9.4 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2024.110585
Zhou Zhou , Xiaohui Yu , Paolo Gardoni , Kun Ji , Dagang Lu
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Abstract

Numerous reinforced concrete (RC) structures are exposed to aggressive environments, such as chloride, mainshock and aftershock. These environmental and extreme loads have the potential to increase the seismic risks during structure's service life. This study introduces a practical probabilistic methodology to estimate the seismic risk of corroded RC frame subjected to mainshock-aftershock sequences. In this methodology, a time-variant modeling strategy is used to simulate the geometrical and mechanical properties of structural degraded materials. The Bayesian updating theorem is employed to calibrate the demand models, which are then used to estimate the fragilities and confidence intervals considering the model uncertainties. A Copula-based approach is conducted to generate joint probability of mainshock and aftershock intensities and the seismic hazard of the mainshock-aftershock scenario. Finally, the seismic risk and associated confidence intervals are estimated by integrating over all mainshock and aftershock intensities levels. A typical corroded RC frame structure is used to illustrate the proposed methodology. The results show that the contribution of corrosion and aftershock would lead a 10 times higher seismic risks compared to scenarios considering only mainshock damage. It is necessary to account for the influence of both corrosion and aftershock in seismic design.
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考虑腐蚀和余震因素的钢筋混凝土结构地震风险估算
许多钢筋混凝土(RC)结构都暴露在腐蚀性环境中,如氯化物、主震和余震。这些环境荷载和极端荷载有可能增加结构在使用寿命期间的地震风险。本研究介绍了一种实用的概率方法,用于估算受主震-余震序列影响的腐蚀 RC 框架的地震风险。该方法采用时变建模策略来模拟结构退化材料的几何和力学性能。贝叶斯更新定理用于校准需求模型,然后用于估计脆性和考虑模型不确定性的置信区间。采用基于 Copula 的方法生成主震和余震强度的联合概率,以及主震-余震情况下的地震危害。最后,通过对所有主震和余震烈度水平进行积分,估算出地震风险和相关置信区间。一个典型的腐蚀 RC 框架结构被用来说明所提出的方法。结果表明,与只考虑主震破坏的情况相比,腐蚀和余震的影响会导致地震风险增加 10 倍。有必要在抗震设计中考虑腐蚀和余震的影响。
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来源期刊
Reliability Engineering & System Safety
Reliability Engineering & System Safety 管理科学-工程:工业
CiteScore
15.20
自引率
39.50%
发文量
621
审稿时长
67 days
期刊介绍: Elsevier publishes Reliability Engineering & System Safety in association with the European Safety and Reliability Association and the Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis Division. The international journal is devoted to developing and applying methods to enhance the safety and reliability of complex technological systems, like nuclear power plants, chemical plants, hazardous waste facilities, space systems, offshore and maritime systems, transportation systems, constructed infrastructure, and manufacturing plants. The journal normally publishes only articles that involve the analysis of substantive problems related to the reliability of complex systems or present techniques and/or theoretical results that have a discernable relationship to the solution of such problems. An important aim is to balance academic material and practical applications.
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