The energy system transition pathway towards carbon reduction using a model-coupling approach

IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Global Environmental Change Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102945
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Abstract

The energy system transition is widely regarded as an important strategy to achieve carbon reduction and is aligned with China's commitment to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030. Unfortunately, most modelling approaches in the existing literature do not pay sufficient attention to inter-sectoral dynamics. By using a model-coupling approach, this paper aims to study inter-sectoral energy consumption flows from 2000 to 2021 and to explore energy system transition pathways at the national and city levels. The results show that historically heavy industries have consistently maintained a high share of energy consumption and emissions accounting for 49.9 % and 60.7 % respectively by 2021, mainly caused by direct energy-resource inputs rather than post-processing inputs. In the scenario analyses, compared to the baseline scenario, the national EES scenario can reduce energy consumption by 6.7 % and emissions by 24.6 % in 2030, while the EES_CCS scenario can further reduce emissions by 48.4 %. Furthermore, the energy consumption and CO2 emissions across cities are influenced by the industrial structure, the degree of electrification, and the amount of new energy installed.
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利用模型耦合方法实现能源系统向碳减排过渡的途径
能源系统转型被广泛认为是实现碳减排的重要战略,与中国到 2030 年达到碳排放峰值的承诺相一致。遗憾的是,现有文献中的大多数建模方法并未充分关注部门间的动态变化。本文采用模型耦合方法,旨在研究 2000 年至 2021 年的部门间能源消费流,并探索国家和城市层面的能源系统转型路径。结果表明,历史上重工业一直保持着较高的能源消耗和排放份额,到 2021 年分别占 49.9% 和 60.7%,这主要是由直接的能源资源投入而不是后处理投入造成的。在情景分析中,与基准情景相比,国家 EES 情景在 2030 年可减少 6.7% 的能耗和 24.6% 的排放,而 EES_CCS 情景可进一步减少 48.4% 的排放。此外,各城市的能源消耗和二氧化碳排放量还受到产业结构、电气化程度和新能源装机量的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Global Environmental Change
Global Environmental Change 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
18.20
自引率
2.20%
发文量
146
审稿时长
12 months
期刊介绍: Global Environmental Change is a prestigious international journal that publishes articles of high quality, both theoretically and empirically rigorous. The journal aims to contribute to the understanding of global environmental change from the perspectives of human and policy dimensions. Specifically, it considers global environmental change as the result of processes occurring at the local level, but with wide-ranging impacts on various spatial, temporal, and socio-political scales. In terms of content, the journal seeks articles with a strong social science component. This includes research that examines the societal drivers and consequences of environmental change, as well as social and policy processes that aim to address these challenges. While the journal covers a broad range of topics, including biodiversity and ecosystem services, climate, coasts, food systems, land use and land cover, oceans, urban areas, and water resources, it also welcomes contributions that investigate the drivers, consequences, and management of other areas affected by environmental change. Overall, Global Environmental Change encourages research that deepens our understanding of the complex interactions between human activities and the environment, with the goal of informing policy and decision-making.
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