{"title":"The energy system transition pathway towards carbon reduction using a model-coupling approach","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102945","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The energy system transition is widely regarded as an important strategy to achieve carbon reduction and is aligned with China's commitment to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030. Unfortunately, most modelling approaches in the existing literature do not pay sufficient attention to inter-sectoral dynamics. By using a model-coupling approach, this paper aims to study inter-sectoral energy consumption flows from 2000 to 2021 and to explore energy system transition pathways at the national and city levels. The results show that historically heavy industries have consistently maintained a high share of energy consumption and emissions accounting for 49.9 % and 60.7 % respectively by 2021, mainly caused by direct energy-resource inputs rather than post-processing inputs. In the scenario analyses, compared to the baseline scenario, the national EES scenario can reduce energy consumption by 6.7 % and emissions by 24.6 % in 2030, while the EES_CCS scenario can further reduce emissions by 48.4 %. Furthermore, the energy consumption and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions across cities are influenced by the industrial structure, the degree of electrification, and the amount of new energy installed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Global Environmental Change","FirstCategoryId":"6","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378024001493","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The energy system transition is widely regarded as an important strategy to achieve carbon reduction and is aligned with China's commitment to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030. Unfortunately, most modelling approaches in the existing literature do not pay sufficient attention to inter-sectoral dynamics. By using a model-coupling approach, this paper aims to study inter-sectoral energy consumption flows from 2000 to 2021 and to explore energy system transition pathways at the national and city levels. The results show that historically heavy industries have consistently maintained a high share of energy consumption and emissions accounting for 49.9 % and 60.7 % respectively by 2021, mainly caused by direct energy-resource inputs rather than post-processing inputs. In the scenario analyses, compared to the baseline scenario, the national EES scenario can reduce energy consumption by 6.7 % and emissions by 24.6 % in 2030, while the EES_CCS scenario can further reduce emissions by 48.4 %. Furthermore, the energy consumption and CO2 emissions across cities are influenced by the industrial structure, the degree of electrification, and the amount of new energy installed.
期刊介绍:
Global Environmental Change is a prestigious international journal that publishes articles of high quality, both theoretically and empirically rigorous. The journal aims to contribute to the understanding of global environmental change from the perspectives of human and policy dimensions. Specifically, it considers global environmental change as the result of processes occurring at the local level, but with wide-ranging impacts on various spatial, temporal, and socio-political scales.
In terms of content, the journal seeks articles with a strong social science component. This includes research that examines the societal drivers and consequences of environmental change, as well as social and policy processes that aim to address these challenges. While the journal covers a broad range of topics, including biodiversity and ecosystem services, climate, coasts, food systems, land use and land cover, oceans, urban areas, and water resources, it also welcomes contributions that investigate the drivers, consequences, and management of other areas affected by environmental change.
Overall, Global Environmental Change encourages research that deepens our understanding of the complex interactions between human activities and the environment, with the goal of informing policy and decision-making.