An index-based multi-hazard risk assessment method for prioritisation of existing bridge portfolios

IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104895
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Abstract

In recent years, several catastrophic collapses of existing bridges have highlighted the need for rapid risk analysis methods aimed at supporting infrastructure managers in the prioritisation of detailed assessments and, if any, risk mitigation actions. A large percentage of existing road bridges were built between the 1960s and 1980s, having thus already reached or even exceeded their design lifetime. Several studies have also shown that bridges often collapse due to either natural or human-related events, such as floods, collisions or overloading that, in addition to earthquakes, should be duly considered in risk assessment. This calls for multi-hazard approaches that provide an integrated perspective of the risk of bridge portfolios, to identify critical structures to support decision-makers. This study proposes a multi-hazard risk-based prioritisation methodology for application to a large number of bridges under limited level of knowledge. Specifically, the risk level is quantified through indices, accounting for uncertainties, that are used for comparative purposes among bridges. The methodology is applied to a highway bridge portfolio located in northern Italy, producing a risk-based ranking that is critically discussed. Analysis results are then compared with the outcome of the current Italian guidelines for safety assessment and maintenance of existing bridges.
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基于指数的多灾害风险评估方法,用于确定现有桥梁组合的优先次序
近年来,现有桥梁发生的几起灾难性坍塌事故凸显了对快速风险分析方法的需求,这些方法旨在支持基础设施管理者确定详细评估的优先次序,并在必要时采取风险缓解行动。很大一部分现有公路桥梁建于 20 世纪 60 年代至 80 年代,因此已经达到甚至超过了设计使用寿命。一些研究还表明,桥梁倒塌往往是由于自然或人为事件造成的,如洪水、碰撞或超载,除地震外,这些事件也应在风险评估中予以适当考虑。这就需要采用多灾害方法,对桥梁组合的风险进行综合分析,以确定关键结构,为决策者提供支持。本研究提出了一种基于多种灾害风险的优先级排序方法,适用于知识水平有限的大量桥梁。具体来说,风险水平通过指数进行量化,并考虑不确定性,用于桥梁之间的比较。该方法适用于位于意大利北部的公路桥梁组合,产生了一个基于风险的排名,并对其进行了批判性讨论。然后将分析结果与意大利现行的现有桥梁安全评估和维护指南的结果进行比较。
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来源期刊
International journal of disaster risk reduction
International journal of disaster risk reduction GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARYMETEOROLOGY-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
18.00%
发文量
688
审稿时长
79 days
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international. Key topics:- -multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters -the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques -discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels -disasters associated with climate change -vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends -emerging risks -resilience against disasters. The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.
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