Eastern Tropical Pacific atmospheric and oceanic projected changes based on CMIP6 models

Abstract

Atmosphere and ocean dynamics and their projections for the 21st century are assessed in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, using an ensemble of 17 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – CMIP6, under two radiative scenarios. Projections in the Panama Bight (PB) and Equatorial Pacific cold tongue (CT) are studied in more detail. In the 2071–2100 period and SSP5-8.5 scenario, referenced to the 1985–2014 period, air temperature (sea surface temperature) is expected to rise ∼3.5 °C (∼3 °C). Precipitation is projected to increase > 3 mm day⁻¹ in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and decrease toward the north. A similar meridional pattern is projected in sea level atmospheric pressure and sea surface salinity (SSS) with negative anomalies toward the south. Large seasonal variations, which dominate the region, are projected to remain similar for the rest of the century. However, in January-April a weakening in the Panama wind jet and intensification of surface wind in the CT is expected, while in the June-November season, a weakening of the Choco wind jet will affect both sub-regions. Mean sea surface height (SSH) is expected to decrease, probably dominated by barotropic wind effects over SSS reduction effect on SSH. However, sterodynamic sea level (SDSL) is projected to rise (∼21 cm) driven by the global mean thermosteric contribution. For the end of the century, a mean sea level rise of ∼69 cm is estimated in the ETP, with SDSL being about half the barystatic contribution. These projections should be used with caution, as climate models have shown limitation reproducing atmospheric and ocean observations in the tropical Pacific Ocean during the last decades, due to large internal variability and systematic biases.