Holding on until the barrel is empty? Algeria's bumpy trajectory towards a post-rentier state

Abstract

Rentier states are under increasing pressure to move towards a post-rentier state model as peak oil demand is approaching. However, it remains unclear if or how a rentier state can make this transition. To answer this, I developed an analytical framework including the mechanisms from the rentier state theory that need to be present to move towards a post-rentier state. This analytical framework is hypothetical, as up to now, no rentier state has been able to transition to a post-rentier state. Using Algeria as a case study, this novel framework is used to analyse the incremental evolution Algeria has made towards a post-rentier state since the year 2000. I argue that Algeria experienced several internal as well as external opportunities and threats and was influenced by its history on how it responded. Although Algeria fulfilled several steps of the framework, it failed to fulfil necessary sustainability aspects to become a post-rentier state.