{"title":"Is a Driver's history of drunk driving and other traffic offenses linked to subsequent drunk driving and traffic crashes? A case study of Taiwan.","authors":"Kun-Feng (Ken) Wu, Yu-Jun Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.09.004","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Crashes involving alcohol-impaired driving or driving under influence (DUI) are more likely to increase crash probability and severity. Many countries have adopted increasingly stringent policies in curbing DUI. Nevertheless, more and more studies show that while the total number of DUIs has reduced as a whole, DUI recidivism remains challenging. As such, this study seeks to research into whether it is possible to identify frequent DUI recidivists based on their traffic offense history, so that effective countermeasure could be put in place and in time. This study proposes using the drivers' traffic offense history and length of duration between two DUIs, the duration of re-offending, to identify frequent DUI recidivists. This approach is not only widely adopted in public health, but is also flexible in accommodating many modeling issues such as data censoring, recurrent events, and the inclusion of time-varying covariates to address questions like whether the probability of recidivism increases or decreases with subsequent DUI offenses or other traffic offenses or violations. Our major results show that: (1) For all drivers caught for a DUI, 10 % of them would be caught for another DUI within a year; (2) In contrast, the same one-year recidivism probability for those who accumulated two DUIs and two run-the-red-light could be as high as 17 %; (3) Each subsequent DUI increased the probability of a further DUI offense by 57 %; and (4) Each additional DUI offense was associated with 45 % increase in probability of being involved in a crash involving DUI. Overall, there are clear links between a driver's history of traffic offenses, DUI recidivism, and crash involvement, which could provide valuable information for authorities to profile potential recidivists and apply preventative measures in advance to reduce DUI-related crashes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47059,"journal":{"name":"IATSS Research","volume":"48 4","pages":"Pages 487-495"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"IATSS Research","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0386111224000475","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"TRANSPORTATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Crashes involving alcohol-impaired driving or driving under influence (DUI) are more likely to increase crash probability and severity. Many countries have adopted increasingly stringent policies in curbing DUI. Nevertheless, more and more studies show that while the total number of DUIs has reduced as a whole, DUI recidivism remains challenging. As such, this study seeks to research into whether it is possible to identify frequent DUI recidivists based on their traffic offense history, so that effective countermeasure could be put in place and in time. This study proposes using the drivers' traffic offense history and length of duration between two DUIs, the duration of re-offending, to identify frequent DUI recidivists. This approach is not only widely adopted in public health, but is also flexible in accommodating many modeling issues such as data censoring, recurrent events, and the inclusion of time-varying covariates to address questions like whether the probability of recidivism increases or decreases with subsequent DUI offenses or other traffic offenses or violations. Our major results show that: (1) For all drivers caught for a DUI, 10 % of them would be caught for another DUI within a year; (2) In contrast, the same one-year recidivism probability for those who accumulated two DUIs and two run-the-red-light could be as high as 17 %; (3) Each subsequent DUI increased the probability of a further DUI offense by 57 %; and (4) Each additional DUI offense was associated with 45 % increase in probability of being involved in a crash involving DUI. Overall, there are clear links between a driver's history of traffic offenses, DUI recidivism, and crash involvement, which could provide valuable information for authorities to profile potential recidivists and apply preventative measures in advance to reduce DUI-related crashes.
期刊介绍:
First published in 1977 as an international journal sponsored by the International Association of Traffic and Safety Sciences, IATSS Research has contributed to the dissemination of interdisciplinary wisdom on ideal mobility, particularly in Asia. IATSS Research is an international refereed journal providing a platform for the exchange of scientific findings on transportation and safety across a wide range of academic fields, with particular emphasis on the links between scientific findings and practice in society and cultural contexts. IATSS Research welcomes submission of original research articles and reviews that satisfy the following conditions: 1.Relevant to transportation and safety, and the multiple impacts of transportation systems on security, human health, and the environment. 2.Contains important policy and practical implications based on scientific evidence in the applicable academic field. In addition to welcoming general submissions, IATSS Research occasionally plans and publishes special feature sections and special issues composed of invited articles addressing specific topics.