Is a Driver's history of drunk driving and other traffic offenses linked to subsequent drunk driving and traffic crashes? A case study of Taiwan.

IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION IATSS Research Pub Date : 2024-10-20 DOI:10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.09.004
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Abstract

Crashes involving alcohol-impaired driving or driving under influence (DUI) are more likely to increase crash probability and severity. Many countries have adopted increasingly stringent policies in curbing DUI. Nevertheless, more and more studies show that while the total number of DUIs has reduced as a whole, DUI recidivism remains challenging. As such, this study seeks to research into whether it is possible to identify frequent DUI recidivists based on their traffic offense history, so that effective countermeasure could be put in place and in time. This study proposes using the drivers' traffic offense history and length of duration between two DUIs, the duration of re-offending, to identify frequent DUI recidivists. This approach is not only widely adopted in public health, but is also flexible in accommodating many modeling issues such as data censoring, recurrent events, and the inclusion of time-varying covariates to address questions like whether the probability of recidivism increases or decreases with subsequent DUI offenses or other traffic offenses or violations. Our major results show that: (1) For all drivers caught for a DUI, 10 % of them would be caught for another DUI within a year; (2) In contrast, the same one-year recidivism probability for those who accumulated two DUIs and two run-the-red-light could be as high as 17 %; (3) Each subsequent DUI increased the probability of a further DUI offense by 57 %; and (4) Each additional DUI offense was associated with 45 % increase in probability of being involved in a crash involving DUI. Overall, there are clear links between a driver's history of traffic offenses, DUI recidivism, and crash involvement, which could provide valuable information for authorities to profile potential recidivists and apply preventative measures in advance to reduce DUI-related crashes.
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驾驶员的酒后驾驶和其他交通违法史是否与随后的酒后驾驶和交通事故有关?台湾案例研究。
涉及酒后驾驶或受影响驾驶(DUI)的撞车事故更有可能增加撞车概率和严重程度。许多国家在遏制酒后驾车方面采取了越来越严格的政策。然而,越来越多的研究表明,虽然酒后驾车的总数总体上有所减少,但酒后驾车的累犯率仍然很高。因此,本研究试图探讨是否有可能根据交通违法记录识别出经常酒驾的惯犯,以便及时采取有效的应对措施。本研究建议利用驾驶员的交通违法记录和两次酒驾之间的持续时间(即再犯时间)来识别酒驾惯犯。这种方法不仅在公共卫生领域被广泛采用,而且还能灵活地解决许多建模问题,如数据删减、重复事件以及纳入随时间变化的协变量等,以解决诸如再犯概率是随后续酒驾违法行为还是其他交通违法行为或违规行为的增加或减少而增加或减少等问题。我们的主要结果显示(1)对于所有因酒驾而被抓获的司机来说,10%的人会在一年内再次因酒驾而被抓获;(2)相比之下,对于那些累计两次酒驾和两次闯红灯的司机来说,同样的一年内再犯概率可高达 17%;(3)随后的每次酒驾都会使再次酒驾的概率增加 57%;(4)每次额外的酒驾都会使涉及酒驾的交通事故概率增加 45%。总之,驾驶员的交通违法史、酒驾累犯和涉及车祸之间存在明显的联系,这可以为当局提供宝贵的信息,以便对潜在的累犯进行剖析,并提前采取预防措施,减少与酒驾有关的车祸。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
IATSS Research
IATSS Research TRANSPORTATION-
CiteScore
6.40
自引率
6.20%
发文量
44
审稿时长
42 weeks
期刊介绍: First published in 1977 as an international journal sponsored by the International Association of Traffic and Safety Sciences, IATSS Research has contributed to the dissemination of interdisciplinary wisdom on ideal mobility, particularly in Asia. IATSS Research is an international refereed journal providing a platform for the exchange of scientific findings on transportation and safety across a wide range of academic fields, with particular emphasis on the links between scientific findings and practice in society and cultural contexts. IATSS Research welcomes submission of original research articles and reviews that satisfy the following conditions: 1.Relevant to transportation and safety, and the multiple impacts of transportation systems on security, human health, and the environment. 2.Contains important policy and practical implications based on scientific evidence in the applicable academic field. In addition to welcoming general submissions, IATSS Research occasionally plans and publishes special feature sections and special issues composed of invited articles addressing specific topics.
期刊最新文献
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