Application of meta-heuristic hybrid models in estimating the average air temperature of Caspian sea coast of Iran

Abstract

The rise of industrial societies leads to higher greenhouse gas emissions, profoundly affecting the climate in coastal regions. Consequently, air temperature readings from standard meteorological stations are key indicators of the Earth's environmental condition. Therefore, accurate estimation of daily temperature in each region is one of the important prerequisites for agricultural planning as well as water resources management and drought prevention, which can be done in different ways such as experimental, semi-experimental and intelligent models. In this research, WSVR, AIG-SVR, GWO-SVR and BAT-SVR hybrid models were investigated and evaluated in order to estimate the average daily air temperature on the shores of the Caspian Sea located in the north of Iran. For modeling, weather station data from Babolsar meteorological station located in Mazandaran province were used. During the water year from 2012 to 2022, daily parameters including relative humidity, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, wind speed, and evaporation were selected as network inputs, with the average daily air temperature as the network output. To assess and compare model performances, several criteria were employed including correlation coefficient, root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and percentage bias. Comparative analysis revealed that the WSVR model surpassed other models, demonstrating the highest correlation coefficient (0.992), lowest RMSE (0.096), and lowest MAE (0.042). The highest Nash Sutcliffe criterion (0.996) and bias percentage (0.001) were prioritized in the validation stage.