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Long-term monitoring, predicting and connection between built-up land and urban heat island patterns based on remote sensing data 基于遥感数据的长期监测、预测以及建筑用地与城市热岛模式之间的联系
Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.envc.2024.101036
The alterations observed in urbanized areas have given rise to urban climate change, contributing to the emergence of urban heat islands (UHIs). This study investigates changes and predicts the built-up land/UHIs in Rasht city from 1991 to 2031. Built-up lands were classified using the normalized built-up composite index (NBCI) and their prediction for 2031 was performed. Surface biophysical parameters were then derived for the prediction of land surface temperature (LST) for 2031 using multiple linear regression (MLR) and Markov chain-cellular automata (CA-Markov) modeling. Finally, alterations in both built-up land and UHI within the city were scrutinized across various geographical directions and temporal periods. The study's findings reveal commendable overall classification accuracy for NBCI (ranging from 87% to 91% across different years) and CA-Markov (89%) in 2021. The MLR analysis produced favorable results with a root mean square error of 1.33 K in predicting LST for 2021. The significant correlation (R = 0.89) between changes in built-up lands and UHI indicatesthat built-up land/UHI exhibit a notable degree of freedom and sprawl, resulting in a negative urban degree-of-goodness.These results demonstrate the direct effects of built-up lands on UHI changes. Therefore, by determining the appropriate pattern in the built-up lands, it is possible to control the pattern of UHI. These findings hold practical significance for urban planners, offering valuable insights to mitigate adverse impacts on the urban environment.
在城市化地区观察到的变化引起了城市气候变化,导致了城市热岛(UHIs)的出现。本研究调查并预测了拉什特市 1991 年至 2031 年建成区/UHIs 的变化。使用归一化建筑综合指数 (NBCI) 对建筑用地进行了分类,并对 2031 年的建筑用地进行了预测。然后,利用多元线性回归(MLR)和马尔可夫链-细胞自动机(CA-马尔可夫)建模,得出地表生物物理参数,用于预测 2031 年的地表温度(LST)。最后,在不同的地理方位和时间段内,对城市中的建筑用地和特高辐射的变化进行了仔细研究。研究结果表明,2021 年的 NBCI(不同年份的准确率从 87% 到 91%不等)和 CA-Markov (89%)的总体分类准确率值得称赞。MLR 分析结果良好,预测 2021 年 LST 的均方根误差为 1.33 K。建筑用地变化与 UHI 之间的显着相关性(R = 0.89)表明,建筑用地/UHI 表现出明显的自由度和无计划扩展,导致负的城市良好度。因此,通过确定建筑用地的适当模式,可以控制 UHI 的模式。这些研究结果对城市规划者具有实际意义,为减轻对城市环境的不利影响提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Overcoming barriers to proactive plastic recycling toward a sustainable future 克服障碍,积极主动地进行塑料回收,实现可持续发展的未来
Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.envc.2024.101040
The plastics sector, accounting for a significant portion of global emissions, presents a challenge and an opportunity in achieving carbon neutrality. Despite Japan's commendable polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottle recycling rates, most plastics are thermally recycled, creating environmental issues. This study proposes an evaluation framework to enhance recycling, aligned with end-user preferences and fostering a circular plastics economy. Employing a mixed-methods approach, this study conducts fieldwork including interviews with plastic recyclers and analysis of industry data. A weighted sum multicriteria analysis integrating end-user preferences, recycling effectiveness, and market dynamics is utilized. Systemic, process, and policy challenges were shown to hinder sustainable recycling practices, while varying willingness to pay, emission and cost reduction potentials, among acceptability and sectoral diversity informed priority plastic types for recycling. Multicriteria analysis showed that although PET is favored by end users, Polyoxymethylene (POM) emerges as a potential priority target for manufacturers and recyclers. Sensitivity analysis underscores the potential impact of establishing or enhancing willingness to pay (WTP) toward certain plastic types. Moreover, manufacturer and recycler evaluations suggest a broader willingness to recycle plastics than previously assumed. The proposed evaluation framework offers insights toward plastic recycling strategies. Policy interventions such as sustained subsidies for recyclers, market incentives leveraging WTP preferences, and technological advances, including chemical recycling and the broadening of plastic type recycling in line with user and manufacturer preferences, could all contribute to promoting sustainable plastic recycling practices.
塑料行业占全球排放量的很大一部分,它为实现碳中和带来了挑战和机遇。尽管日本的聚对苯二甲酸乙二酯(PET)瓶回收率值得称赞,但大多数塑料都是热回收,从而产生了环境问题。本研究提出了一个评估框架,以根据最终用户的偏好加强回收利用,促进塑料循环经济的发展。本研究采用混合方法进行实地考察,包括采访塑料回收商和分析行业数据。研究采用了加权和多标准分析法,综合考虑了最终用户偏好、回收效果和市场动态。结果表明,系统、流程和政策方面的挑战阻碍了可持续回收实践,而不同的支付意愿、减排和成本降低潜力、可接受性和行业多样性则为优先回收的塑料类型提供了依据。多标准分析表明,尽管 PET 受到最终用户的青睐,但聚甲醛(POM)成为制造商和回收商的潜在优先目标。敏感性分析强调了确定或提高对某些塑料类型的支付意愿(WTP)的潜在影响。此外,制造商和回收商的评估结果表明,回收塑料的意愿比之前假设的更广泛。建议的评估框架为塑料回收战略提供了启示。政策干预措施,如对回收者的持续补贴、利用 WTP 偏好的市场激励措施以及技术进步,包括化学回收以及根据用户和制造商的偏好扩大塑料类型的回收范围,都有助于促进可持续的塑料回收实践。
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引用次数: 0
Application of meta-heuristic hybrid models in estimating the average air temperature of Caspian sea coast of Iran 元启发式混合模型在估算伊朗里海沿岸平均气温中的应用
Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.envc.2024.101039
The rise of industrial societies leads to higher greenhouse gas emissions, profoundly affecting the climate in coastal regions. Consequently, air temperature readings from standard meteorological stations are key indicators of the Earth's environmental condition. Therefore, accurate estimation of daily temperature in each region is one of the important prerequisites for agricultural planning as well as water resources management and drought prevention, which can be done in different ways such as experimental, semi-experimental and intelligent models. In this research, WSVR, AIG-SVR, GWO-SVR and BAT-SVR hybrid models were investigated and evaluated in order to estimate the average daily air temperature on the shores of the Caspian Sea located in the north of Iran. For modeling, weather station data from Babolsar meteorological station located in Mazandaran province were used. During the water year from 2012 to 2022, daily parameters including relative humidity, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, wind speed, and evaporation were selected as network inputs, with the average daily air temperature as the network output. To assess and compare model performances, several criteria were employed including correlation coefficient, root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and percentage bias. Comparative analysis revealed that the WSVR model surpassed other models, demonstrating the highest correlation coefficient (0.992), lowest RMSE (0.096), and lowest MAE (0.042). The highest Nash Sutcliffe criterion (0.996) and bias percentage (0.001) were prioritized in the validation stage.
工业社会的兴起导致温室气体排放量增加,对沿海地区的气候产生了深远影响。因此,标准气象站的气温读数是地球环境状况的关键指标。因此,准确估算各地区的日气温是农业规划、水资源管理和干旱预防的重要前提条件之一。本研究对 WSVR、AIG-SVR、GWO-SVR 和 BAT-SVR 混合模型进行了研究和评估,以估算伊朗北部里海沿岸的日平均气温。建模时使用了马赞达兰省巴布萨尔气象站的气象站数据。在 2012 至 2022 水年期间,选择相对湿度、最高温度、最低温度、风速和蒸发量等日参数作为网络输入,并以日平均气温作为网络输出。为评估和比较模型性能,采用了多项标准,包括相关系数、均方根误差、平均绝对误差、纳什-苏特克利夫效率和偏差百分比。对比分析表明,WSVR 模型超越了其他模型,显示出最高的相关系数(0.992)、最低的均方根误差(0.096)和最低的平均绝对误差(0.042)。在验证阶段,最高的纳什-苏特克里夫标准(0.996)和偏差百分比(0.001)被优先考虑。
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引用次数: 0
Development of a brand value measurement model with a corporate social responsibility perspective. A comparative analysis of consumer perception of energy providers in Spain and Colombia 从企业社会责任角度开发品牌价值衡量模型。西班牙和哥伦比亚消费者对能源供应商看法的比较分析
Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.envc.2024.101032
Sustainable development of companies and their products involves the integration of multiple dimensions, including economic, ethical, social, and environmental considerations, all of which are increasingly important to consumers. The present study identified key variables that define brand value in the context of Corporate Social-Environmental Responsibility (CSR), comparing two companies in the energy sector in Spain and Colombia (Naturgy and Ecopetrol S.A.). Among the factors that contribute to brand success, this study evaluated three variables: Visibility, Loyalty and Experience as perceived by consumers. Data measuring brand value were collected through an online survey of 640 respondents in Spain and Colombia, assessing their response to company logos and corporate messaging regarding environmental sustainability of their operations. Structural equation models (SEM) were then used to measure brand value based on latent variables and compared to survey data. Our results show that company visibility had a positive impact on brand loyalty and consumer experience, which ultimately increases brand value. Conversely, an improved consumer experience can also enhance brand loyalty and visibility. Our findings represent a framework to quantify brand value within the energy sector that is based on integrating multiple indicators of brand equity (BE) using the analysis of company logos, while simultaneously considering CSR, greenwashing and other forms of company messaging. This integration is a significant departure from traditional approaches and offers a new and novel perspective when developing a comprehensive corporate model. Our study suggests that implicit and explicit allusion to corporate environmental-social responsibility has a profound influence on brand recognition and brand acceptance by customers, due to the positive responses it elicits. The current study's findings support incorporating references to CSR in sustainable branding in its broadest spectrum and definition and offer a procedure to quantify and measure brand value, which can help company managers make effective branding decisions.
公司及其产品的可持续发展涉及多个方面的整合,包括经济、道德、社会和环境因素,所有这些因素对消费者来说都越来越重要。本研究通过比较西班牙和哥伦比亚能源行业的两家公司(Naturgy 和 Ecopetrol S.A.),确定了在企业社会环境责任(CSR)背景下定义品牌价值的关键变量。在有助于品牌成功的因素中,本研究评估了三个变量:消费者眼中的知名度、忠诚度和体验。通过对西班牙和哥伦比亚的 640 名受访者进行在线调查,收集了衡量品牌价值的数据,评估了他们对公司徽标和公司运营环境可持续性信息的反应。然后使用结构方程模型(SEM)根据潜在变量衡量品牌价值,并与调查数据进行比较。我们的结果表明,公司知名度对品牌忠诚度和消费者体验有积极影响,最终会提升品牌价值。相反,改善消费者体验也能提高品牌忠诚度和知名度。我们的研究结果代表了一种量化能源行业品牌价值的框架,其基础是利用对公司标识的分析来整合品牌资产(BE)的多个指标,同时考虑企业社会责任、绿色洗涤和其他形式的公司信息。这种整合与传统方法大相径庭,为建立全面的企业模型提供了新颖的视角。我们的研究表明,企业环境-社会责任的隐性和显性暗示对客户的品牌认知度和品牌接受度有着深远的影响,因为它会引起积极的反应。目前的研究结果支持在可持续品牌建设中最广泛地引用企业环境与社会责任,并提供了量化和衡量品牌价值的程序,有助于公司管理者做出有效的品牌建设决策。
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引用次数: 0
Global change drives potential niche contraction and range shift of globally threatened African vulture 全球变化导致濒临灭绝的非洲秃鹫的潜在生态位收缩和分布范围转移
Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.envc.2024.101038
Human-induced global change poses an increasingly severe threat to biodiversity, with species having limited population sizes being particularly vulnerable. Mapping and modeling the distribution ranges of such species, along with detecting potential range shifts and contractions at both local and regional scales, are essential for developing effective conservation plans. Ruppell's vulture Gyps rueppelli, an ecologically important bird species native to Africa, is experiencing a rapid decline in its range. The purpose of this study is to map and model potential regional spatio-temporal distribution of Ruppell's vulture in Africa, alongside detecting the possibility of the species' range shifts and contractions. A total of 804 rarefied localities were identified where the Ruppell's vulture was the dominant bird species. This study employed the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to perform species distribution modeling for the Ruppell's vulture. The modeling considered current climate conditions (1970s-2000s) as a baseline, along with two future climate change scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSPs 245 and 585) for two future time periods (2050s and 2070s). The model's performance was evaluated by optimizing settings and examining the Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC). Among the 13 bioclimatic and anthropogenic variables included in the model, four (isothermality, cropland expansion, anthropogenic biomes, and urban expansion (in order of importance)) emerged as the most influential drivers of Ruppell's vulture regional distribution. All considered Species distribution models (SDMs) achieved high predictive performance, with AUC-ROC values exceeding 0.9.The model predicted a total of approximately 19,453 ha of suitable habitat for Ruppell's vultures in Africa, with East Africa identified as the most prominent region under the current climate scenario. Isothermality (38.8%) was the primary factor influencing Ruppell's vulture distribution, followed by agricultural expansion (29.9%) and anthropogenic biomes (7.2%) in the face of global change. The results reveal considerable future habitat loss (up to 61%) for Ruppell's vultures in the study area, alongside an eastward range shift (longitudinal axis) by the 2050s under projected climate change scenarios. These imply that Ruppell's vultures face imminent population decline and range shift due to significant habitat loss and climate change. Hence, prioritizing the development and implementation of a coordinated conservation program that incorporates captive breeding and assisted migration is critical to save this vulture species in its native African range.
人类引起的全球变化对生物多样性构成了日益严重的威胁,种群数量有限的物种尤其容易受到影响。绘制这类物种的分布范围图谱并建立模型,同时在地方和区域范围内检测潜在的分布范围转移和收缩,对于制定有效的保护计划至关重要。鲁佩尔秃鹫(Gyps rueppelli)是一种原产于非洲的重要生态鸟类,其分布范围正在迅速缩小。本研究的目的是绘制鲁佩尔秃鹫在非洲的潜在区域时空分布图并建立模型,同时检测该物种分布范围转移和收缩的可能性。研究共确定了 804 个以鲁佩尔秃鹫为主要鸟类的稀有地点。本研究采用最大熵(MaxEnt)算法对鲁佩尔秃鹫进行物种分布建模。建模以当前气候条件(20 世纪 70 年代至 2000 年代)为基线,同时考虑了两个未来时段(2050 年代和 2070 年代)的两种未来气候变化情景(共享社会经济路径:SSPs 245 和 585)。通过优化设置和检查接收者工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC-ROC),对模型的性能进行了评估。在该模型包含的 13 个生物气候和人为变量中,有四个变量(等温线、耕地扩张、人为生物群落和城市扩张(按重要程度排序))对鲁佩尔秃鹫的区域分布影响最大。所有考虑的物种分布模型(SDMs)都达到了很高的预测性能,AUC-ROC 值超过了 0.9。该模型预测了鲁佩尔秃鹫在非洲总共约 19,453 公顷的适宜栖息地,其中东非被确定为当前气候情景下最突出的地区。等温线(38.8%)是影响鲁佩尔秃鹫分布的主要因素,其次是农业扩张(29.9%)和全球变化下的人为生物群落(7.2%)。研究结果表明,在预测的气候变化情景下,鲁佩尔秃鹫未来在研究区域的栖息地将大量减少(高达 61%),到 2050 年代,其分布范围(纵轴)将向东移动。这意味着,由于栖息地的大量丧失和气候变化,鲁佩尔秃鹫即将面临种群数量下降和分布范围转移。因此,优先制定和实施一项包含人工繁殖和协助迁徙的协调保护计划,对于在非洲原生地拯救这一秃鹫物种至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Carbon offsets compatible with the Paris Agreement to limit global warming: Call for a direct action 碳抵消符合限制全球变暖的《巴黎协定》:呼吁采取直接行动
Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.envc.2024.101034
The societal commitment to combat climate change is reflected in the Paris Agreement with the primary focus to mitigate climate change by reducing or limiting greenhouse gas emissions. To facilitate the achievement of emission reduction targets, innovative carbon crediting and offsetting mechanisms have been developed. These mechanisms enable stakeholders to offset their emissions by using carbon offset credits if needed. These carbon offset methodologies can be classified into two main categories. The first category involves directly reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the environment through green and emission-capturing solutions, such as reforestation and carbon capture and storage. The second category focuses on achieving a relative reduction in carbon emissions by using or investing in technologies with lower carbon intensity compared to business-as-usual practices, such as renewable energy. The reduction achieved in this second category is assumed to be equivalent to not emitting the calculated amount of emissions. However, both categories generally do not address the emissions' sources directly. This study introduces a third approach by proposing the creation of a carbon offset market at the emissions' source, offering a novel way to directly tackle the origins of carbon emissions. This approach aims to prevent emissions from being released in the first place, directly addressing the source of emissions. It aligns with the precautionary principle, which advocates for proactive measures to prevent harm. This approach should not be confused with the non-consumption approach, which is a top-down strategy focused on reducing demand. Instead, it is a bottom-up approach that seeks to reduce the supply of emissions. This study developed a four-step methodology for implementing a carbon offset market at the source, starting with fixing fossil fuel extraction per producer, then fixing the profit margin per unit of extraction, then calculating the carbon content per unit of fossil fuel, and finally creating a carbon offset market at the source where one can offset their carbon footprint by paying an amount equivalent to the profit from fossil fuel extraction to the producer in exchange for a reduction in an equivalent amount of fossil fuel extraction. It also offers insights into emission reductions potential through this approach, along with cost calculations per unit of reduction based on historical records, literature data, and statistical databases. The main advantage of the proposed approach is its bottom-up focus on reducing the supply of emissions, which leads to tangible and quantifiable reductions in real time. This method eliminates potential loopholes in traditional methodologies, ensuring that the reductions are both immediate and verifiable.
应对气候变化的社会承诺体现在《巴黎协定》中,其主要重点是通过减少或限制温室气体排放来减缓气候变化。为促进减排目标的实现,创新的碳信用和碳抵消机制应运而生。这些机制使利益相关方能够在需要时使用碳抵消额度来抵消其排放量。这些碳抵消方法可分为两大类。第一类涉及通过绿色和排放捕获解决方案,如重新造林和碳捕获与储存,直接减少环境中的温室气体排放。第二类侧重于通过使用或投资于碳强度低于 "一切照旧 "做法的技术(如可再生能源),实现碳排放量的相对减少。在第二类中实现的减排量被假定为等同于不排放计算出的排放量。然而,这两类方法一般都不能直接解决排放源问题。本研究提出了第三种方法,建议在排放源头建立碳补偿市场,提供了一种直接解决碳排放源头的新方法。这种方法旨在首先防止排放,直接解决排放源问题。它符合预防原则,该原则主张采取积极主动的措施来预防伤害。这种方法不应与非消费方法相混淆,后者是一种自上而下的战略,侧重于减少需求。相反,它是一种自下而上的方法,旨在减少排放的供应。本研究为在源头实施碳抵消市场制定了四步方法,首先确定每个生产者的化石燃料开采量,然后确定每单位开采量的利润率,接着计算每单位化石燃料的碳含量,最后在源头创建碳抵消市场,人们可以通过向生产者支付相当于化石燃料开采利润的金额来抵消其碳足迹,以换取等量化石燃料开采量的减少。它还提供了通过这种方法减排潜力的见解,以及基于历史记录、文献数据和统计数据库的单位减排成本计算。所提议方法的主要优势在于它自下而上地关注减少排放的供应,从而实时实现有形和可量化的减排。这种方法消除了传统方法中可能存在的漏洞,确保了减排的即时性和可验证性。
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引用次数: 0
Poultry slaughterhouse waste management through anaerobic digestion with varying proportions of chicken litter 通过不同比例的鸡粪厌氧消化处理家禽屠宰场废物
Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.envc.2024.101035
Nepal's burgeoning poultry industry which is a key sector in its economy leads to a considerable generation of slaughterhouse waste (SHW), necessitating effective and sustainable disposal methods. This study explores anaerobic digestion as an optimal solution for poultry SHW management, aiming to produce energy-rich biogas while efficiently mitigating pollution in these facilities. Particularly, the feasibility and effectiveness of co-digestion with chicken litter (CL) were investigated to enhance biogas production and waste utilization. Four distinct runs of anaerobic digestion were performed, each utilizing varying substrate compositions with SHW to CL ratios of 1:0, 4:1, 1:1, and 1:4. Throughout the process, essential parameters, including total solids (TS), volatile solids (VS), biological oxygen demand (BOD5), pH, temperature, biogas generation, were meticulously measured. The cumulative biogas production for each run was as follows: 14.87 liters and a biogas yield of 88.73 ml/gVS with a 17.39 % VS reduction for Run 1, 25.98 liters and a biogas yield of 147.21 ml/gVS with a 28.64 % VS reduction for Run 2, 78.32 liters and a biogas yield of 314.69 ml/gVS with a 54.32 % VS reduction for Run 3, and 89.195 liters and a biogas yield of 344.36 ml/gVS with a 63.05 % VS reduction for Run 4. Notably, as the proportion of CL increased in the mixture from 4:1 to 1:1, a considerable VS reduction was observed. Furthermore, when the ratio of SHW to CL reached 1:1 and 1:4, a significant BOD5 reduction of 50 % and 63.13 % was achieved, respectively, surpassing previous runs. The results reveal that the addition of CL in an appropriate ratio effectively manages poultry SHW, with the optimum SHW:CL ratio for significant biogas yield lying between 1:1 and 1:4.
尼泊尔的家禽业是其经济中的一个关键部门,该行业的蓬勃发展产生了大量屠宰场废物(SHW),因此需要有效且可持续的处理方法。本研究探讨了厌氧消化作为家禽屠宰场废物管理的最佳解决方案,旨在生产富含能源的沼气,同时有效减轻这些设施的污染。特别是研究了与鸡粪(CL)共同消化的可行性和有效性,以提高沼气产量和废物利用率。进行了四次不同的厌氧消化,每次利用不同的基质成分,SHW 与 CL 的比例分别为 1:0、4:1、1:1 和 1:4。在整个过程中,对包括总固体(TS)、挥发性固体(VS)、生物需氧量(BOD5)、pH 值、温度、沼气产生量在内的重要参数进行了细致的测量。每次运行的累计沼气产量如下:运行 1 产生了 14.87 升沼气,沼气产量为 88.73 毫升/克 VS,VS 减少了 17.39%;运行 2 产生了 25.98 升沼气,沼气产量为 147.21 毫升/克 VS,VS 减少了 28.64%;运行 3 产生了 78.32 升沼气,沼气产量为 314.69 毫升/克 VS,VS 减少了 54.32%。值得注意的是,随着 CL 在混合物中的比例从 4:1 增加到 1:1,VS 显著减少。此外,当 SHW 与 CL 的比例达到 1:1 和 1:4 时,BOD5 分别显著降低了 50 % 和 63.13 %,超过了之前的运行结果。结果表明,添加适当比例的 CL 能有效管理家禽粪便,粪便与 CL 的最佳比例介于 1:1 和 1:4 之间,能产生大量沼气。
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引用次数: 0
Flash flood prediction modeling in the hilly regions of Southeastern Bangladesh: A machine learning attempt on present and future climate scenarios 孟加拉国东南部丘陵地区的山洪预测模型:针对当前和未来气候情景的机器学习尝试
Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.envc.2024.101029
Flash floods are highly destructive, and their frequency and intensity are expected to escalate due to climatic changes. This study thus investigated flash flood susceptibility (FFS) by applying machine learning algorithms and climate projection to predict both present and future hazard scenarios in the southeastern hilly regions of Bangladesh. To predict FFS, we evaluated twelve flood-influencing variables: elevation (EL), slope (SL), aspect (AS), drainage density (DD), distance to stream (DS), topography roughness index (TRI), stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), soil permeability (SP), precipitation (PR), land use and land cover (LULC) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Earth observation data, field surveys, and past flood records were used to create a detailed flood inventory. Among the machine learning models tested, the random forest (RF) algorithm outperformed others, including support vector machine (SVC), logistic regression (LR), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and was subsequently used for flood susceptibility mapping based on future precipitation projections under two Sixth Coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) climate change scenarios: SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. Our findings indicated that the areas at high to very high risk of flooding are projected to increase significantly under both the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Initially, around 38 % of the studied region had high to very high flood susceptibility, but this is expected to rise to 40–42 % over the projected time periods. These spatial delineations of flood-prone areas can provide guidance for developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to address the adverse impacts of flash flooding in the hilly river basins of Bangladesh.
山洪具有高度破坏性,其频率和强度预计会因气候变化而增加。因此,本研究通过应用机器学习算法和气候预测来预测孟加拉国东南部丘陵地区现在和未来的灾害情况,从而研究山洪易发性(FFS)。为了预测洪水易感性,我们评估了 12 个洪水影响变量:海拔 (EL)、坡度 (SL)、面阔度 (AS)、排水密度 (DD)、与溪流的距离 (DS)、地形粗糙度指数 (TRI)、溪流动力指数 (SPI)、地形湿润指数 (TWI)、土壤透水性 (SP)、降水量 (PR)、土地利用和土地覆盖 (LULC) 以及归一化差异植被指数 (NDVI)。地球观测数据、实地调查和过去的洪水记录被用来创建详细的洪水清单。在测试的机器学习模型中,随机森林(RF)算法优于其他算法,包括支持向量机(SVC)、逻辑回归(LR)和极端梯度提升(XGBoost),随后被用于根据两个第六次耦合模式互比项目(CMIP6)气候变化情景下的未来降水预测绘制洪水易感性地图:SSP1-2.6 和 SSP5-8.5。我们的研究结果表明,在 SSP1-2.6 和 SSP5-8.5 两种情景下,洪水风险高到非常高的地区预计都将大幅增加。最初,约有 38% 的研究区域洪水易发程度为高到极高,但在预测的时间段内,这一比例预计将上升至 40-42%。这些洪水易发区的空间划分可为制定有效的减缓和适应战略提供指导,以应对孟加拉国丘陵河流流域山洪暴发的不利影响。
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引用次数: 0
Analyzing agricultural drought using remote sensing indices in the east bale zone, southeastern Ethiopian lowlands 利用遥感指数分析埃塞俄比亚东南部低地东巴莱区的农业干旱情况
Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.envc.2024.101031
The practical applications of satellite data in comprehending the changing environment must take in account quantitative awareness of the uncertainty across different satellite products. However, prior drought research efforts in Ethiopia paid less attention to evaluating satellite products although drought has led to agricultural failures in the lowlands of Ethiopia. This study aimed to evaluate the spatial-temporal distribution of agricultural drought in the lowlands of the Bale zone throughout the crop growing season (March to May) from 2012 to 2022. The dataset utilized in this study was chosen by assessing the performance of enhanced MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (eMODIS) and enhanced Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (eVIIRS) Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in comparison to observed gridded rainfall, employing the simple linear regression model. The assessment of agricultural drought was conducted using the NDVI anomaly and the vegetation condition index (VCI). The eMODIS exhibited a coefficient of determination of 0.45 with a p-value of 0.02, whereas the eVIIRS had a coefficient of determination of 0.47 with a p-value of 0.01. Thus, eVIIRS NDVI was selected as the best dataset for evaluating agricultural drought in the research site. The findings indicated that in both 2012 and 2022, there were periods of agricultural drought. During these periods, severe to extreme drought conditions were seen in 7.6 % to 54.98 % of the study area, encompassing both lowland and midland regions. The biggest influence was detected in the northern, middle, and southern regions of the research area. Severe and moderate drought dominated study area as depicted by NDVI anomaly while extreme and severe as seen from VCI. Whereas the years 2014 and 2020 were the wettest. The study implies that eVIIRS NDVI might be an alternate approach to give empirical information that would aid stakeholders in limiting the consequences of agricultural drought on farming activities.
卫星数据在理解不断变化的环境方面的实际应用必须考虑到对不同卫星产品的不确定性的定量认识。然而,尽管干旱已导致埃塞俄比亚低地农业歉收,但埃塞俄比亚之前的干旱研究工作较少关注对卫星产品的评估。本研究旨在评估 2012 年至 2022 年整个作物生长季节(3 月至 5 月)巴莱州低地农业干旱的时空分布情况。本研究使用的数据集是通过评估增强型中分辨率成像分光仪(eMODIS)和增强型可见光红外成像辐射计套件(eVIIRS)归一化差异植被指数(NDVI)的性能与观测到的网格降雨量进行比较后选择的,并采用了简单线性回归模型。利用归一化差异植被指数异常和植被状况指数对农业干旱进行了评估。eMODIS 的决定系数为 0.45,p 值为 0.02,而 eVIIRS 的决定系数为 0.47,p 值为 0.01。因此,eVIIRS NDVI 被选为评估研究地点农业干旱的最佳数据集。研究结果表明,2012 年和 2022 年都出现了农业干旱期。在此期间,研究区域 7.6% 至 54.98% 的地区出现了严重至极端干旱,包括低地和中原地区。影响最大的是研究区的北部、中部和南部地区。从归一化差异植被指数(NDVI)异常中可以看出,严重和中度干旱在研究区域占主导地位,而从 VCI 中可以看出极端和严重干旱。而 2014 年和 2020 年是最湿润的年份。这项研究表明,eVIIRS NDVI 可能是提供经验信息的另一种方法,有助于利益相关者限制农业干旱对农业活动造成的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Uncovering the impact on environmental challenges through the predictors of m-tourism apps adoption: SEM-NCA approaches 通过预测移动旅游应用程序的采用,发现其对环境挑战的影响:SEM-NCA 方法
Q2 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.envc.2024.101028
This study investigates the factors influencing the adoption of m-tourism apps in Bangladesh and their impact on being free from environmental challenges. Utilizing Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and Necessity Condition Analysis (NCA), the research explores how various predictors affect the Intention to Adopt Tourism Apps (IATA) and, subsequently, the outcome of being free from environmental challenges (FEC). SEM results reveal that Perceived Usefulness (PU), Cultural Exchange of Technology (CET), Social Amusement and Entertainment (SAE), and Tourists' Lifestyles (TL) significantly enhance IATA, with IATA having a strong positive impact on FEC. Conversely, Attitudes Towards Technology (ATT) and Government Supportive Roles (GSR) show limited influence on adoption. NCA identifies CET, IATA, SAE, and TL as critical predictors with medium to large effect sizes, particularly at higher thresholds, indicating their role as major bottlenecks. Government Supportive Roles and Tourist Technology Readiness are less influential. These findings offer valuable insights for developers and policymakers to focus on enhancing the perceived value, cultural exchange, and lifestyle compatibility of m-tourism apps to improve adoption rates and effectively address environmental challenges.
本研究调查了孟加拉国采用移动旅游应用程序的影响因素及其对免受环境挑战的影响。研究利用结构方程建模(SEM)和必要条件分析(NCA),探讨了各种预测因素如何影响旅游应用程序的采用意向(IATA),并进而影响免受环境挑战的结果(FEC)。SEM 结果显示,感知有用性 (PU)、技术文化交流 (CET)、社交娱乐 (SAE) 和游客生活方式 (TL) 显著增强了 IATA,而 IATA 对 FEC 有很大的积极影响。相反,对技术的态度(ATT)和政府支持角色(GSR)对采用的影响有限。NCA 将 CET、IATA、SAE 和 TL 确定为关键预测因子,具有中等至较大的效应大小,尤其是在较高阈值时,表明它们是主要瓶颈。政府支持作用和游客技术准备程度的影响较小。这些发现为开发者和政策制定者提供了宝贵的见解,使他们能够专注于提高移动旅游应用程序的感知价值、文化交流和生活方式兼容性,从而提高采用率并有效应对环境挑战。
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引用次数: 0
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Environmental Challenges
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