Global change drives potential niche contraction and range shift of globally threatened African vulture

Q2 Environmental Science Environmental Challenges Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI:10.1016/j.envc.2024.101038
{"title":"Global change drives potential niche contraction and range shift of globally threatened African vulture","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.envc.2024.101038","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Human-induced global change poses an increasingly severe threat to biodiversity, with species having limited population sizes being particularly vulnerable. Mapping and modeling the distribution ranges of such species, along with detecting potential range shifts and contractions at both local and regional scales, are essential for developing effective conservation plans. Ruppell's vulture <em>Gyps rueppelli</em>, an ecologically important bird species native to Africa, is experiencing a rapid decline in its range. The purpose of this study is to map and model potential regional spatio-temporal distribution of Ruppell's vulture in Africa, alongside detecting the possibility of the species' range shifts and contractions. A total of 804 rarefied localities were identified where the Ruppell's vulture was the dominant bird species. This study employed the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to perform species distribution modeling for the Ruppell's vulture. The modeling considered current climate conditions (1970s-2000s) as a baseline, along with two future climate change scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSPs 245 and 585) for two future time periods (2050s and 2070s). The model's performance was evaluated by optimizing settings and examining the Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC). Among the 13 bioclimatic and anthropogenic variables included in the model, four (isothermality, cropland expansion, anthropogenic biomes, and urban expansion (in order of importance)) emerged as the most influential drivers of Ruppell's vulture regional distribution. All considered Species distribution models (SDMs) achieved high predictive performance, with AUC-ROC values exceeding 0.9.The model predicted a total of approximately 19,453 ha of suitable habitat for Ruppell's vultures in Africa, with East Africa identified as the most prominent region under the current climate scenario. Isothermality (38.8%) was the primary factor influencing Ruppell's vulture distribution, followed by agricultural expansion (29.9%) and anthropogenic biomes (7.2%) in the face of global change. The results reveal considerable future habitat loss (up to 61%) for Ruppell's vultures in the study area, alongside an eastward range shift (longitudinal axis) by the 2050s under projected climate change scenarios. These imply that Ruppell's vultures face imminent population decline and range shift due to significant habitat loss and climate change. Hence, prioritizing the development and implementation of a coordinated conservation program that incorporates captive breeding and assisted migration is critical to save this vulture species in its native African range.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34794,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Challenges","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Environmental Challenges","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266701002400204X","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"Environmental Science","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Human-induced global change poses an increasingly severe threat to biodiversity, with species having limited population sizes being particularly vulnerable. Mapping and modeling the distribution ranges of such species, along with detecting potential range shifts and contractions at both local and regional scales, are essential for developing effective conservation plans. Ruppell's vulture Gyps rueppelli, an ecologically important bird species native to Africa, is experiencing a rapid decline in its range. The purpose of this study is to map and model potential regional spatio-temporal distribution of Ruppell's vulture in Africa, alongside detecting the possibility of the species' range shifts and contractions. A total of 804 rarefied localities were identified where the Ruppell's vulture was the dominant bird species. This study employed the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to perform species distribution modeling for the Ruppell's vulture. The modeling considered current climate conditions (1970s-2000s) as a baseline, along with two future climate change scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSPs 245 and 585) for two future time periods (2050s and 2070s). The model's performance was evaluated by optimizing settings and examining the Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC). Among the 13 bioclimatic and anthropogenic variables included in the model, four (isothermality, cropland expansion, anthropogenic biomes, and urban expansion (in order of importance)) emerged as the most influential drivers of Ruppell's vulture regional distribution. All considered Species distribution models (SDMs) achieved high predictive performance, with AUC-ROC values exceeding 0.9.The model predicted a total of approximately 19,453 ha of suitable habitat for Ruppell's vultures in Africa, with East Africa identified as the most prominent region under the current climate scenario. Isothermality (38.8%) was the primary factor influencing Ruppell's vulture distribution, followed by agricultural expansion (29.9%) and anthropogenic biomes (7.2%) in the face of global change. The results reveal considerable future habitat loss (up to 61%) for Ruppell's vultures in the study area, alongside an eastward range shift (longitudinal axis) by the 2050s under projected climate change scenarios. These imply that Ruppell's vultures face imminent population decline and range shift due to significant habitat loss and climate change. Hence, prioritizing the development and implementation of a coordinated conservation program that incorporates captive breeding and assisted migration is critical to save this vulture species in its native African range.
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
全球变化导致濒临灭绝的非洲秃鹫的潜在生态位收缩和分布范围转移
人类引起的全球变化对生物多样性构成了日益严重的威胁,种群数量有限的物种尤其容易受到影响。绘制这类物种的分布范围图谱并建立模型,同时在地方和区域范围内检测潜在的分布范围转移和收缩,对于制定有效的保护计划至关重要。鲁佩尔秃鹫(Gyps rueppelli)是一种原产于非洲的重要生态鸟类,其分布范围正在迅速缩小。本研究的目的是绘制鲁佩尔秃鹫在非洲的潜在区域时空分布图并建立模型,同时检测该物种分布范围转移和收缩的可能性。研究共确定了 804 个以鲁佩尔秃鹫为主要鸟类的稀有地点。本研究采用最大熵(MaxEnt)算法对鲁佩尔秃鹫进行物种分布建模。建模以当前气候条件(20 世纪 70 年代至 2000 年代)为基线,同时考虑了两个未来时段(2050 年代和 2070 年代)的两种未来气候变化情景(共享社会经济路径:SSPs 245 和 585)。通过优化设置和检查接收者工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC-ROC),对模型的性能进行了评估。在该模型包含的 13 个生物气候和人为变量中,有四个变量(等温线、耕地扩张、人为生物群落和城市扩张(按重要程度排序))对鲁佩尔秃鹫的区域分布影响最大。所有考虑的物种分布模型(SDMs)都达到了很高的预测性能,AUC-ROC 值超过了 0.9。该模型预测了鲁佩尔秃鹫在非洲总共约 19,453 公顷的适宜栖息地,其中东非被确定为当前气候情景下最突出的地区。等温线(38.8%)是影响鲁佩尔秃鹫分布的主要因素,其次是农业扩张(29.9%)和全球变化下的人为生物群落(7.2%)。研究结果表明,在预测的气候变化情景下,鲁佩尔秃鹫未来在研究区域的栖息地将大量减少(高达 61%),到 2050 年代,其分布范围(纵轴)将向东移动。这意味着,由于栖息地的大量丧失和气候变化,鲁佩尔秃鹫即将面临种群数量下降和分布范围转移。因此,优先制定和实施一项包含人工繁殖和协助迁徙的协调保护计划,对于在非洲原生地拯救这一秃鹫物种至关重要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 去求助
来源期刊
Environmental Challenges
Environmental Challenges Environmental Science-Environmental Engineering
CiteScore
8.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
249
审稿时长
8 weeks
期刊最新文献
Long-term monitoring, predicting and connection between built-up land and urban heat island patterns based on remote sensing data Overcoming barriers to proactive plastic recycling toward a sustainable future Development of a brand value measurement model with a corporate social responsibility perspective. A comparative analysis of consumer perception of energy providers in Spain and Colombia Application of meta-heuristic hybrid models in estimating the average air temperature of Caspian sea coast of Iran Global change drives potential niche contraction and range shift of globally threatened African vulture
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1