Rainfall characteristics and magnitude control the volume of shallow and deep-seated landslides: Inferences from analyses using a simple runoff model

Abstract

Landslide volume plays a pivotal role in controlling landslide movement and potential damage. Although rainfall is widely recognized as one of the most important factors underlying landslide occurrence worldwide, its impact on landslide volume has been investigated only for individual landslide types. In this study, we show that rainfall characteristics and magnitude control the volume produced by both shallow and deep-seated landslides. A total of ten shallow and deep-seated landslides in Japan were compiled with volume, occurrence time, and rainfall data. Rainfall characteristics that triggered landslides were identified using the Soil Water Index and the three-layer tank model, which is a simple runoff model, and magnitude was quantified based on lag time. A strong positive correlation was found between lag time and landslide volume, indicating that landslide volume increases with increasing magnitude of rainfall to induce landslides. This study is the first attempt to suggest a relationship between rainfall magnitude and the volume produced by shallow and deep-seated landslides systematically and will promote the development of landslide risk management strategies.