Modelling the present and future of Phrynosoma orbiculare habitat and wildfire distribution and their environmental niche overlap in Mexico

Abstract

Wildfires are natural phenomena that have shaped ecosystems and maintained biodiversity for millions of years. However, the increased frequency and severity of wildfires in recent decades are predominantly attributed to human activities. These anthropogenic factors, including land use change, climate change, and fire suppression, have disrupted the natural fire regime and heightened the risk of large-scale, destructive wildfires. Reptiles, as ectothermic and often slow-moving animals, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of fires due to their limited mobility and reliance on specific microhabitats. Understanding the impacts of wildfires on reptile populations is crucial for their effective conservation and management in fire-prone areas. This paper focuses on Phrynosoma orbiculare, a species distributed across the northern and southeastern regions of Mexico, where wildfires are common. The study revealed that key environmental variables driving the distribution of P. orbiculare include altitude, temperature extremes, and forest composition, while fire occurrence is strongly influenced by climatic conditions such as temperature and precipitation. As fires become more frequent and severe, the niche overlap between P. orbiculare and fire-prone regions is expected to expand. These findings highlight the importance of integrating fire management into conservation planning, particularly for protecting fire-sensitive ecosystems like Abies forests. Understanding the complex interaction between fire and species distributions is essential for developing effective conservation strategies that ensure the survival of P. orbiculare and other fire-sensitive species in Mexico’s changing landscapes.