Development and application of a risk analysis methodology for road traffic accidents

Abstract

Collision, rollover, swerving, and vehicle fire are road traffic accidents (RTAs) caused by driver, vehicle, and environment-related factors, resulting in diverse severity levels, such as property damages, injuries, and fatality. In addition, vagueness in detectability, e.g., close circuit television and driver admittance, culminates RTAs' risk analysis into a multifaceted problem. The present study performed root cause analysis to investigate RTAs, where the fishbone diagram categorized RTAs (e.g., collision and swerving) and identified primary (e.g., driver and environment) and secondary (e.g., overspeeding and tire burst) root causes. For 1158 km of intercity highways in Qassim (Saudi Arabia), fuzzy-failure mode and effect analysis evaluated 171 failure modes using 3500 RTAs' recorded over three years and knowledge of practice and experts. The study highlights collision, driver-related issues, and property damage as the leading category, root cause, and consequence. Comparing the baseline with the first realistic mitigation (speed camera installation) acknowledged a 53 % reduction in risk probability number. Automated driver assistance systems, rumble strips, variable speed limits, and increasing penalties for traffic violations hypothetically dropped 76 % of cumulative risk. The methodology handles limited data and subjective risk factors to help decision-makers minimize RTAs in Saudi Arabia and other jurisdictions.