{"title":"Will Southeast Asia be the next global manufacturing hub? A multiway cointegration, causality, and dynamic connectedness analyses","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101217","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a novel framework to examine relationships among drivers of economic growth in Southeast Asia, a region poised to become a significant manufacturing destination. However, unbalanced economic growth among countries poses risks to multinational companies considering offshoring decisions. Our two-stage framework uses multi-way cointegration analysis and a vector error correction model (VECM) to investigate critical drivers of economic growth. We apply a QVAR model to evaluate dynamic connectedness and spillover effects of offshoring decisions. Using World Bank data, our results show that Southeast Asian countries are interconnected through complex relationships featuring multi-way cointegration and dynamic connectedness, informing evidence-based policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Emerging Markets Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1566014124001122","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
We propose a novel framework to examine relationships among drivers of economic growth in Southeast Asia, a region poised to become a significant manufacturing destination. However, unbalanced economic growth among countries poses risks to multinational companies considering offshoring decisions. Our two-stage framework uses multi-way cointegration analysis and a vector error correction model (VECM) to investigate critical drivers of economic growth. We apply a QVAR model to evaluate dynamic connectedness and spillover effects of offshoring decisions. Using World Bank data, our results show that Southeast Asian countries are interconnected through complex relationships featuring multi-way cointegration and dynamic connectedness, informing evidence-based policy.
期刊介绍：
The intent of the editors is to consolidate Emerging Markets Review as the premier vehicle for publishing high impact empirical and theoretical studies in emerging markets finance. Preference will be given to comparative studies that take global and regional perspectives, detailed single country studies that address critical policy issues and have significant global and regional implications, and papers that address the interactions of national and international financial architecture. We especially welcome papers that take institutional as well as financial perspectives.
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