Scenario construction and vulnerability assessment of natural hazards-triggered power grid accidents

Abstract

In light of escalating urbanization trends and climate change impacts worldwide, the susceptibility of urban power grids to natural disasters has become an overarching global concern. Prior research has predominantly concentrated on singular calamities while often disregarding cumulative repercussions from multiple concurrent events affecting power grid resilience. This investigation presents an exhaustive framework for assessing grid vulnerabilities by quantifying diverse impacts from potential natural disaster scenarios and delineating adaptive pathways for evaluating inadvertent occurrences. The framework amalgamates an extensive array of metrics— including probability assessments, system state evaluations, trigger threshold analyses, responsiveness measurements, and adaptability adjustments— within a dynamic scenario-oriented model. The inquiry progresses through distinct stages: formulating an all-encompassing methodology for assessing vulnerabilities; assessing varied impacts stemming from different environmental perils; mapping out post-disaster evolutions; and executing a case analysis focusing on an urban power grid.

Concentrating specifically on rainfall, snowfall, and freezing incidents, the case analysis uses locale-specific data to appraise grid susceptibilities while employing multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to facilitate decision-making. During this deliberative process, optimal strategies are derived, and mitigative actions are recommended with the aim of diminishing power-grid vulnerabilities. This investigation underscores intricate risk dynamics within urban power grids while presenting a feasible framework for sustainable planning and effective emergency responses in confronting natural hazards.