{"title":"An aging population and sustainable government debt: The case of Korea","authors":"Kwangyong Park","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2024.101831","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although we have recently seen fiscal stress rising in many countries due to an increase in government spending and a rapidly aging population, there has been little research into fiscal sustainability while explicitly taking into account the fiscal stress caused by population aging. In this paper, we follow the same methodology as seen in Bi (2012) and examine the fiscal space of Korea, which has one of the fastest aging populations. This analysis shows that ignoring population aging leads to an over-estimation of fiscal space as large as 130% of GDP. Both increasing social security spending and supporting the National Pension significantly affect fiscal space. Finally, it is shown that fiscal sustainability and National Pension reform are closely related.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 101831"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Asian Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S104900782400126X","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Although we have recently seen fiscal stress rising in many countries due to an increase in government spending and a rapidly aging population, there has been little research into fiscal sustainability while explicitly taking into account the fiscal stress caused by population aging. In this paper, we follow the same methodology as seen in Bi (2012) and examine the fiscal space of Korea, which has one of the fastest aging populations. This analysis shows that ignoring population aging leads to an over-estimation of fiscal space as large as 130% of GDP. Both increasing social security spending and supporting the National Pension significantly affect fiscal space. Finally, it is shown that fiscal sustainability and National Pension reform are closely related.
尽管我们最近看到，由于政府支出增加和人口迅速老龄化，许多国家的财政压力都在上升，但在明确考虑人口老龄化造成的财政压力的同时，对财政可持续性的研究却很少。在本文中，我们采用与 Bi（2012）相同的方法，研究了韩国的财政空间，韩国是人口老龄化速度最快的国家之一。分析表明，忽视人口老龄化会导致财政空间被高估，高估幅度高达 GDP 的 130%。增加社会保障支出和支持国民养老金都会对财政空间产生重大影响。最后，分析表明，财政可持续性与国民养老金改革密切相关。
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Asian Economics provides a forum for publication of increasingly growing research in Asian economic studies and a unique forum for continental Asian economic studies with focus on (i) special studies in adaptive innovation paradigms in Asian economic regimes, (ii) studies relative to unique dimensions of Asian economic development paradigm, as they are investigated by researchers, (iii) comparative studies of development paradigms in other developing continents, Latin America and Africa, (iv) the emerging new pattern of comparative advantages between Asian countries and the United States and North America.
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