Journal of Asian Economics最新文献

Digitization of education and the urban-rural education gap: Evidence from the Chinese household income project data 教育数字化与城乡教育差距：来自中国家庭收入项目数据的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102127

Xiang Deng , Hongming Zhang , Yiling Gao , Chunlin Wan

Using data from the 2018 Chinese Household Income Project, this study evaluates the impact of China's Modern Distance Education Project for Rural Primary and Secondary Schools (MDEP) on urban-rural education gap by employing a cohort-based DID for cross-sectional data approach. The results demonstrate that the MDEP significantly narrowed the education gap, with particularly strong effects observed among rural female students and children from lower-income households. In terms of the mechanism of action, the digitization of education through three paths: improving learning conditions, improving academic performance, and expanding knowledge horizons. Our analysis further reveals that the MDEP contributes to raising income floors for rural households. Crucially, the MDEP effectiveness in boosting incomes depends on beneficiaries' capacity to translate their enhanced educational human capital into tangible economic gains. This study provides robust empirical evidence evaluating how digital education initiatives reduce urban-rural education gap, demonstrating that targeted technological interventions can effectively bridge equity gaps in compulsory education systems.

本研究利用2018年中国家庭收入项目的数据，采用基于队列的DID横截面数据方法，评估了中国农村中小学现代远程教育项目（MDEP）对城乡教育差距的影响。结果表明，MDEP显著缩小了教育差距，对农村女学生和低收入家庭儿童的影响尤为明显。在作用机制上，教育数字化通过改善学习条件、提高学习成绩、拓展知识视野三条路径实现。我们的分析进一步表明，MDEP有助于提高农村家庭的收入底线。至关重要的是，MDEP在提高收入方面的有效性取决于受益人将其加强的教育人力资本转化为有形经济收益的能力。本研究提供了强有力的实证证据，评估了数字教育举措如何缩小城乡教育差距，表明有针对性的技术干预可以有效弥合义务教育体系中的公平差距。

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引用次数: 0

Global monetary policy spillovers and cross-border credit in a small open economy: Evidence from Fiji 小型开放经济体中的全球货币政策溢出效应和跨境信贷：来自斐济的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102124

Ameen Omar Shareef , K.P. Prabheesh , Disusu Delana , Jacinta Hesaie

This study analyses the impact of global monetary policy on Fiji’s macroeconomic dynamics by focusing on cross border flows, exchange rate, output and interest rate. We used the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model and quarterly data from 2003 to 2024 to identify the spillover channels of international monetary policy. Our findings suggest that Fiji’s macroeconomic variables are strongly influenced by global monetary policy proxied by US monetary policy. Specifically, an increase in the Federal Fund Rate is associated with a decline in cross-border claims and simultaneous rise in cross-border liabilities of Fiji. The impacts are primarily operated through the exchange rate channel, where exchange rate management leads to fluctuations in cross-border flows. These results highlight Fiji's vulnerability to external shocks and its policy trade-offs in a globally integrated environment.

本研究分析了全球货币政策对斐济宏观经济动态的影响，重点关注跨境流动、汇率、产出和利率。本文采用结构向量自回归（SVAR）模型和2003 - 2024年的季度数据来识别国际货币政策的溢出渠道。我们的研究结果表明，斐济的宏观经济变量受到以美国货币政策为代表的全球货币政策的强烈影响。具体地说，联邦基金利率的增加与斐济跨境索赔的减少和跨境负债的同时增加有关。这些影响主要是通过汇率渠道产生的，汇率管理导致跨境资金流动的波动。这些结果突出了斐济对外部冲击的脆弱性及其在全球一体化环境中的政策权衡。

引用次数: 0

Digital infrastructure and cognitive gap among children: Evidence from China 数字基础设施与儿童认知差距：来自中国的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102125

Ge Tian , Zi Yang , Xun Zhang

This paper examines how large-scale digital infrastructure affects children’s cognitive ability and exacerbates cognitive disparities among them. Leveraging the rollout of the “Broadband China” initiative, we construct an intensity difference-in-differences (DID) model and utilize panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). Our results show that the expansion of digital infrastructure significantly impairs children’s cognitive development, with the adverse effects disproportionately concentrated among rural, especially left-behind children. Mechanism analysis reveals that digital infrastructure weakens the income channel for left-behind children, as it does not lead to significantly higher earnings for their migrant parents compared to non-left-behind counterparts, and any income gains are less likely to be invested in education. It also distorts the knowledge acquisition channel, as left-behind children—due to reduced educational expectations—are less likely to leverage digital resources for learning. Furthermore, the entertainment channel is intensified by limited parental supervision, making left-behind children more vulnerable to excessive online entertainment. We further explore policy interventions that may mitigate these negative impacts. Our findings suggest that digital infrastructure, in the absence of complementary safeguards, can reinforce existing inequalities—highlighting the need for targeted support policies in the digital era

本文探讨了大规模数字基础设施如何影响儿童的认知能力，并加剧了儿童之间的认知差异。利用“宽带中国”计划的推出，我们构建了一个强度差中差（DID）模型，并利用了中国家庭面板研究（CFPS）的面板数据。我们的研究结果表明，数字基础设施的扩张显著损害了儿童的认知发展，负面影响不成比例地集中在农村儿童，尤其是留守儿童。机制分析表明，数字基础设施削弱了留守儿童的收入渠道，因为与非留守儿童相比，数字基础设施并没有使其流动父母的收入显著提高，而且任何收入增长都不太可能投资于教育。它还扭曲了知识获取渠道，因为留守儿童由于教育期望降低，不太可能利用数字资源进行学习。此外，由于父母监督有限，娱乐渠道被强化，使留守儿童更容易受到过度网络娱乐的影响。我们将进一步探讨可能减轻这些负面影响的政策干预措施。我们的研究结果表明，在缺乏补充保障的情况下，数字基础设施可能会加剧现有的不平等现象，这凸显了数字时代有针对性的支持政策的必要性

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引用次数: 0

Economic policy uncertainty, individual job hopping, and job match 经济政策的不确定性、个人跳槽和工作匹配

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102123

Shuyuan Qin , Yongqiu Wu

In the ever-changing macroeconomic environment, economic policy uncertainty has emerged as a crucial external factor influencing individual job-hopping behavior. Using data from the 2014–2020 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), listed resume data, company hiring data, and multidimensional economic policy uncertainty indicators, we find that economic policy uncertainty significantly reduces job-hopping frequency among workers. When economic policy uncertainty increases by 1 standard deviation, the frequency of job hopping among workers decreases by 0.15 standard deviations. Sensitivity analysis, instrumental variables approach, and a series of robustness tests confirm the reliability of the estimation results. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that economic policy uncertainty reduces the job-hopping frequency of private enterprise employees, moderately educated workers, technical professionals, and production workers. Mechanism tests indicate that economic policy uncertainty primarily inhibits job hopping by increasing individual risk expectations and reducing firms’ hiring and layoff activities. Economic policy uncertainty decreases both the active job-hopping behavior of workers looking for new employment opportunities and the passive job-hopping behavior due to layoffs and other factors, further validating the mechanism of its influence. Finally, from both subjective and objective perspectives, we find that economic policy uncertainty reduces workers’ job match quality by suppressing their job-hopping behavior.

在不断变化的宏观经济环境下，经济政策的不确定性已成为影响个人跳槽行为的重要外部因素。利用2014-2020年中国家庭面板研究（CFPS）的数据，列出简历数据、公司招聘数据和多维经济政策不确定性指标，我们发现经济政策不确定性显著降低了工人的跳槽频率。经济政策不确定性每增加1个标准差，员工跳槽频率就减少0.15个标准差。灵敏度分析、工具变量法和一系列稳健性检验证实了估计结果的可靠性。异质性分析表明，经济政策的不确定性降低了民营企业员工、中等学历工人、技术专业人员和生产工人的跳槽频率。机制检验表明，经济政策的不确定性主要通过增加个体风险预期和减少企业的招聘和裁员活动来抑制跳槽。经济政策的不确定性既降低了劳动者寻找新就业机会的主动跳槽行为，也降低了因裁员等因素导致的被动跳槽行为，进一步验证了其影响机制。最后，从主观和客观两方面分析，我们发现经济政策不确定性通过抑制员工跳槽行为降低了员工的职业匹配质量。

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引用次数: 0

Institutional governance and energy security: Unveiling the drivers of global value chain participation in Asian economies 制度治理与能源安全：揭示亚洲经济体参与全球价值链的驱动因素

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102108

Wajid Ali , Seema Saini , Devi Prasad Dash

The study highlights the impact of energy security on global value chain participation (GVCs) in 48 Asian economies from 1990 to 2022, with a major focus on interaction effect of governance indicators. Utilising long run estimation approach our findings indicates, (1)Energy import and usage significantly enhances GVCs participation demonstrating the access to reliable and affordable energy supports; (2) Moderation effect of governance indicators such as political stability, rule of law, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, voice and accountability, and control of corruption indicates the positive and significant impact on GVCs participation, fostering greater industrialization and economic integration; (3) Political globalisation and inbound tourism have a positive impact on GVC participation, indicating strengthen international cooperation, enhanced international mobility and governance through effective regulations and economic policies; (4) Carbon emission also indicates positive influence on GVCs participation, signaling higher levels of industrialization, often associated with increased carbon output, are linked to greater integration into global value chains. Overall, promotion of energy security compliance along with robust institutional governance suggests that energy imports could be an attractive and effective approach in promoting global connectivity with enhanced industrial capacity.

该研究强调了1990年至2022年48个亚洲经济体能源安全对全球价值链参与（GVCs）的影响，主要关注治理指标的互动效应。利用长期估计方法，我们的研究结果表明：(1)能源进口和使用显著增强了全球价值链的参与，表明获得可靠和负担得起的能源支持；(2)政治稳定、法治、政府效能、监管质量、话语权和问责制、腐败控制等治理指标的调节效应表明，它们对全球价值链的参与产生了积极而显著的影响，促进了工业化和经济一体化的发展；(3)政治全球化和入境旅游对全球价值链参与有正向影响，表明通过有效的法规和经济政策加强国际合作，加强国际流动和治理；(4)碳排放还表明了对全球价值链参与的积极影响，表明工业化水平的提高往往与碳产出的增加有关，与全球价值链一体化程度的提高有关。总体而言，促进能源安全合规以及健全的机构治理表明，能源进口可能是促进全球互联互通、提高工业能力的有效途径。

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引用次数: 0

Can pilot free trade zones promote the agglomeration of talent in cities: Evidence from China 自由贸易试验区能否促进城市人才集聚：来自中国的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102107

Zhui Liu, Kuiran Yuan , Huiru Wei

As a pivotal platform for institutional openness, Pilot Free Trade Zones (PFTZs) are increasingly serving as key policy instruments for promoting regional economic agglomeration and cross-border talent mobility worldwide. Grounded in agglomeration economics theory, this study employs panel data from 284 prefecture-level cities in China and adopts a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model to empirically assess the effect of PFTZ establishment on urban talent agglomeration. The findings indicate that the establishment of PFTZs significantly enhances regional talent agglomeration. Mechanism analysis reveals that PFTZs promote talent agglomeration primarily through enhancing entrepreneurial vitality, optimizing the innovation environment, and attracting foreign investment inflows. Spatial effect analysis reveals a shadow suppression zone within 50 kilometers of the PFTZs, while a notable positive spillover effect exists in the 50–150 kilometers range. However, these effects diminish significantly beyond 200 kilometers. Moreover, the impact of PFTZs on talent agglomeration exhibits significant heterogeneity across pilot batches, geographic locations, and educational levels. These findings enrich the theoretical understanding of how institutional policies influence talent flows and provide practical insights for local governments aiming to optimize talent allocation through PFTZ initiatives.

自由贸易试验区作为制度开放的重要平台，日益成为促进区域经济集聚和全球人才跨境流动的重要政策工具。本研究以集聚经济学理论为基础，利用中国284个地级市的面板数据，采用交错差中差（DID）模型实证评估自贸试验区建立对城市人才集聚的影响。研究结果表明，自贸区的建立显著促进了区域人才集聚。机制分析表明，保税区促进人才集聚的主要途径是增强创业活力、优化创新环境和吸引外资流入。空间效应分析表明，保税区50公里范围内存在阴影抑制区，50 ~ 150公里范围内存在显著的正向溢出效应。然而，这些影响在200公里以上就会显著减弱。此外，自贸区对人才集聚的影响在试点批次、地理位置和教育水平之间存在显著的异质性。这些发现丰富了制度政策如何影响人才流动的理论认识，并为旨在通过自贸区优化人才配置的地方政府提供了实践见解。

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引用次数: 0

Unravelling the factors behind Indonesia's international exchange reserves 揭开印尼国际外汇储备背后的因素

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102105

Sanjiv Kumar , K.P. Prabheesh , Iman Gunadi

This paper investigates the motives underlying Indonesia’s demand for international reserves. Using quarterly data for 2001Q1–2024Q4, we estimate a regression model for reserves-to-GDP and complement it with long-run cointegration techniques and quantile regressions. The baseline and cointegration results show that variables capturing precautionary and capital-account motives, most notably short-term external debt, the interest rate differential, and exchange-rate volatility, are the most robust determinants of reserve holdings. By contrast, current-account variables play a limited role. The undervaluation indicator is generally insignificant across specifications, providing little support for a strong mercantilist motive in Indonesia’s reserve accumulation strategy. Quantile regressions reveal important heterogeneity: the impact of short-term external debt is strongest in low-reserve regimes, while exchange-rate volatility becomes more relevant at the median and upper quantiles of the reserves distribution. Overall, the evidence suggests that Indonesia’s reserve policy has been guided primarily by precautionary and capital-account risk management rather than by persistent undervaluation aimed at export-led growth.

本文调查了印尼对国际储备的需求背后的动机。利用2001年第一季度至2024年第四季度的季度数据，我们估计了储备与gdp之比的回归模型，并用长期协整技术和分位数回归对其进行了补充。基线和协整结果表明，捕捉预防性和资本账户动机的变量，最显著的是短期外债、利差和汇率波动，是外汇储备持有的最有力决定因素。相比之下，经常账户变量的作用有限。从各个指标来看，低估指标总体上是微不足道的，这几乎无法支持印尼积累外汇储备战略中存在强烈的重商主义动机。分位数回归揭示了重要的异质性：短期外债的影响在低储备制度中最强，而汇率波动在储备分布的中位数和上分位数变得更加相关。总的来说，有证据表明，印尼的外汇储备政策主要以预防性和资本账户风险管理为指导，而不是以持续低估货币价值为目标，以实现出口导向型增长。

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引用次数: 0

The Commuter’s dividend: Dockless bike sharing and wage premium in urban labor market 通勤者的红利：无桩共享单车与城市劳动力市场的工资溢价

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102112

Chenyu Zeng, Xiahai Wei, Lingzheng Yu

As a new form of urban transportation, dockless bike sharing effectively improves connectivity between work and residence through its spatial penetration capabilities, reshaping commuting patterns and travel efficiency for workers. Whether the widespread adoption of dockless bike sharing has a positive impact on the labor market warrants further investigation. This paper uses the entry of the dockless bike sharing platform as a quasi-natural experiment, examining its impact on wages for short-distance commuters and the underlying mechanisms through micro-level individual data. This paper finds that the widespread adoption of bike sharing significantly increases workers’ wage levels, a conclusion that remains valid after a series of robustness tests. The mechanism behind this lies in the fact that bike sharing reduces commuting time and frees up additional working hours, thereby promoting wage growth by improving workers’ time allocation. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that bike sharing has a greater wage premium effect on urban vulnerable groups, outdoor mobile office workers, and short-distance workers, and the effect is more pronounced in cities with high levels of urban sprawl. This paper deepens the understanding of how dockless bike sharing enhances the welfare of urban workers, providing empirical evidence and decision-making references for governments to improve the new form of urban transportation and labor market development.

作为一种新型的城市交通形式，无桩共享单车通过其空间渗透能力，有效地改善了工作和居住之间的连通性，重塑了上班族的通勤模式和出行效率。无桩共享单车的广泛普及是否会对劳动力市场产生积极影响，还有待进一步调查。本文以无桩共享单车平台的进入作为准自然实验，通过微观层面的个体数据考察其对短途通勤者工资的影响及其潜在机制。本文发现，共享单车的广泛采用显著提高了工人的工资水平，这一结论经过一系列稳健性检验仍然有效。其背后的机制在于，共享单车减少了通勤时间，释放了额外的工作时间，从而通过改善工人的时间分配来促进工资增长。异质性分析表明，共享单车对城市弱势群体、户外移动办公人员和短距离工作者的工资溢价效应更大，且在城市蔓延程度高的城市中效果更为明显。本文加深了对无桩共享单车如何提升城市劳动者福利的理解，为各国政府完善城市交通新形态和劳动力市场发展提供了经验证据和决策参考。

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引用次数: 0

Guarantee networks and financial resource allocation: Firm-level evidence from China 担保网络与金融资源配置：来自中国的企业层面证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102113

Xinghua Guan , Ruixue Han , Jie Mao

The financing crowding-out effect of local public debt on microeconomic entities is a long-term, structural, and institutional issue that currently constrains China's economy from transitioning to a high-quality development stage. Based on the guarantee data collected manually, our study constructs the guarantee networks of the local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) from 2014 to 2022 using the complex network analysis method, and examines the influence of guarantee networks on the debt level of non-LGFV local firms. The results show that the expansion of the scale of the LGFVs' guarantee networks reduces the debt level of the non-LGFV local firms. This effect is particularly prominent in short-term liabilities, as well as non-state-owned enterprises, and areas with a poor social credit environment or higher network connectivity. Research on economic consequences indicates that the financing crowding-out effect of guarantee networks on non-LGFV local firms compels these firms to adjust their debt financing structure—specifically by increasing secured debts and advance receipts—and to alter their investment strategies, including reducing innovation investment. This research not only provides new evidence from a micro perspective on the impact of LGFVs' guarantee networks on corporate leverage but also offers valuable policy insights for optimizing local public debt management, improving financial market mechanisms, and promoting high-quality economic development.

地方公债对微观经济主体的融资挤出效应，是当前制约中国经济向高质量发展阶段转型的长期性、结构性、制度性问题。本研究在人工采集担保数据的基础上，运用复杂网络分析法构建了2014 - 2022年地方政府融资平台的担保网络，并考察了担保网络对非地方政府融资平台地方企业债务水平的影响。研究结果表明，地方政府融资平台担保网络规模的扩大降低了非地方政府融资平台地方企业的债务水平。这种效应在短期负债、非国有企业以及社会信用环境较差或网络连通性较高的地区尤为突出。对经济后果的研究表明，担保网络对非地方政府融资平台本地企业的融资挤出效应迫使这些企业调整其债务融资结构——特别是通过增加担保债务和预收单——并改变其投资策略，包括减少创新投资。本研究不仅从微观角度为地方政府融资平台担保网络对企业杠杆的影响提供了新的证据，而且为优化地方公共债务管理、完善金融市场机制、促进经济高质量发展提供了有价值的政策见解。

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引用次数: 0

Chinese fiscal policy uncertainty and corporate total factor productivity 中国财政政策不确定性与企业全要素生产率

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102109

Zuofeng Wu , Huayu Shen , Jing Jiao

This study empirically examines the nexus between Chinese Fiscal Policy Uncertainty (CFPU) and corporate total factor productivity (CTFP) using a panel dataset of Chinese listed firms covering the period 2011–2023. The core results demonstrate that CFPU exerts a robustly negative impact on CTFP, with financial constraints serving as a primary mediating channel: heightened CFPU exacerbates firms’ financing frictions, which in turn constrain productivity growth. Supplementary mechanism tests further corroborate that CFPU undermines CTFP by suppressing corporate innovation investment and inducing inefficient underinvestment behaviors. Heterogeneity analyses reveal notable cross-firm variations in this relationship: state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and firms with a higher shareholding ratio of the largest shareholder exhibit greater resilience to CFPU’s adverse productivity effects, owing to their stronger risk-bearing capacity and privileged resource access. In contrast, firms with CEO duality suffer more severe CTFP losses due to impaired internal governance and decision-making oversight. To mitigate endogeneity concerns and verify result robustness, the study employs a battery of identification strategies, including instrumental variable regression, alternative model specifications, substitutions of the CTFP proxy, and dual clustering regressions. All robustness checks confirm the validity of the core findings. This research advances the literature by clarifying the microeconomic implications of fiscal policy uncertainty and its multi-channel transmission to firm productivity, while offering actionable implications for policymakers to enhance fiscal policy stability and for enterprises to optimize governance and financing strategies amid policy volatility.

本研究利用2011-2023年中国上市公司面板数据集，实证检验了中国财政政策不确定性（CFPU）与企业全要素生产率（CTFP）之间的关系。核心结果表明，CFPU对CTFP具有显著的负向影响，金融约束是主要的中介渠道：CFPU的增加加剧了企业的融资摩擦，进而抑制了生产率的增长。补充机制检验进一步证实了CFPU通过抑制企业创新投资和诱导低效投资不足行为来破坏CTFP。异质性分析显示，国有企业和第一大股东持股比例较高的企业对CFPU的不利生产率影响表现出更强的弹性，因为它们的风险承受能力更强，资源获取优势更大。相比之下，由于内部治理和决策监督受损，具有CEO双重身份的公司遭受更严重的CTFP损失。为了减轻内生性问题并验证结果的稳健性，该研究采用了一系列识别策略，包括工具变量回归、替代模型规范、替代CTFP代理和双聚类回归。所有稳健性检查都证实了核心发现的有效性。本研究通过澄清财政政策不确定性的微观经济影响及其对企业生产率的多渠道传导，推动了文献的发展，同时为政策制定者提供了可操作的启示，以增强财政政策的稳定性，并为企业在政策波动中优化治理和融资策略提供了可操作的启示。

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引用次数: 0