Journal of Asian Economics最新文献

Enterprises’ bargaining power, supervision by public opinion, and environmental regulations: Evidence from the pollutant discharge permit system of China 企业议价能力、舆论监督与环境规制：来自中国排污许可制度的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102134

Jingbing Feng , Shuai Shao , Hao Wu

Enterprises face various levels of environmental regulation intensity due to the discretion of local governments, which affects the outcome of environmental regulation policy. However, few studies have specifically discussed how informal environmental regulations, represented by public opinion supervision, can correct the above phenomenon. On the basis of data on China’s pollutant discharge permits from 2017 to 2019, this paper directly characterizes environmental regulations at the micro enterprise level and uses the truncated regression method to empirically investigate the weakening effect of enterprises’ bargaining power on environmental regulations and how supervision by public opinion can correct it. The results show that the greater the bargaining power is, the lower the level of environmental regulations are. Further analysis reveals that a higher level of supervision by public opinion, i.e., higher degrees of environmental information disclosure and media concern over environmental issues, can decrease the weakening effect of enterprises’ bargaining power on environmental regulations. The effective role of public opinion relies on institutional conditions, such as superior supervision and the financial status of local governments. This study adds to the literature by providing the empirical evidence of the spatial differences in environmental regulations and the relationship between formal and informal environmental regulations at the micro level, serving as an important decision-making reference for optimizing environmental governance strategies.

由于地方政府的自由裁量权，企业面临着不同程度的环境规制强度，从而影响了环境规制政策的效果。然而，很少有研究专门讨论以舆论监督为代表的非正式环境法规如何纠正上述现象。本文以2017 - 2019年中国污染物排放许可数据为基础，对微观企业层面的环境规制进行了直接表征，运用截断回归方法实证考察了企业议价能力对环境规制的弱化效应，以及舆论监督如何纠正这种弱化效应。结果表明，议价能力越大，环境规制水平越低。进一步分析发现，更高水平的舆论监督，即更高程度的环境信息披露和媒体对环境问题的关注，可以降低企业对环境法规议价能力的弱化效应。舆论的有效发挥依赖于制度条件，如上级监督和地方政府的财政状况。本研究在微观层面上为环境规制的空间差异以及正式与非正式环境规制之间的关系提供了实证证据，为优化环境治理策略提供了重要的决策参考。

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引用次数: 0

Central-local environmental policy consistency, streamlining and delegation reform, and urban entrepreneurial executive density 中央地方环境政策一致性、简政放权改革与城市企业家执行密度

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102104

Yuequn Cao, Chaoyang Tu, Chenlin Cui, Kexin Du

As ecological civilization advances in China, the impacts of governmental efforts to implement green development policies—and the mechanisms through which they operate—warrant closer scrutiny. This study constructs a dataset on policy consistency by measuring the cosine similarity between municipal and central government work reports, and employs a long-difference model to examine how central–local environmental policy consistency affects urban entrepreneurial executive density under the “streamlining, delegation, and regulation” reform framework. The findings show that locally tailored, context-specific adjustments in policy consistency significantly increase urban entrepreneurial executive density. The effects also differ markedly between large cities and small- to medium-sized cities, with adjustment strategies varying by city size. While such tailoring promotes regional economic growth, achieving a more rational industrial structure requires stronger alignment between central and local policies. Further analysis indicates that, when adjusting policy consistency, local governments face a trade-off between fiscal decentralization and policy implementation, implying a need to balance “spending,” “earning,” and “saving.” The reform framework creates enabling conditions for flexible policy adjustments. Moreover, these adjustments improve firms’ earnings per share and market performance, strengthening profitability and growth potential. This, in turn, attracts entrepreneurial executives to locate in particular regions, consistent with a “voting with their feet” mechanism. By introducing “urban entrepreneurial executive density” as an indicator of policy responsiveness, this paper highlights that policy consistency shapes both resource allocation efficiency and executives’ locational choices, thereby influencing regional competitiveness. The study contributes to the literature on central–local relations and offers policy-relevant implications for environmental policymaking and the development of entrepreneurial executive talent in China.

随着中国生态文明的不断推进，政府实施绿色发展政策的影响及其运行机制值得进一步审视。本研究通过测度城市与中央政府工作报告余弦相似度构建政策一致性数据集，并采用长差模型考察“简政放权”改革框架下中央与地方环境政策一致性对城市创业高管密度的影响。研究结果表明，因地制宜、因地制宜的政策一致性调整显著提高了城市创业高管密度。这种影响在大城市和中小城市之间也有显著差异，调整策略因城市规模而异。虽然这种调整促进了区域经济增长，但实现更合理的产业结构需要加强中央和地方政策的协调。进一步分析表明，在调整政策一致性时，地方政府面临财政分权与政策执行之间的权衡，这意味着需要平衡“支出”、“收入”和“储蓄”。改革框架为灵活调整政策创造了有利条件。此外，这些调整提高了公司的每股收益和市场表现，增强了盈利能力和增长潜力。这反过来又吸引了具有创业精神的高管到特定地区落户，这与“用脚投票”的机制是一致的。本文通过引入“城市创业高管密度”作为政策响应性指标，强调政策一致性既影响资源配置效率，又影响高管的区位选择，从而影响区域竞争力。本研究对中央与地方关系的研究文献有所贡献，并为中国环境政策制定和创业型行政人才的培养提供政策相关启示。

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引用次数: 0

The cancellation risk of China's life insurance industry and its impact on the market 中国寿险行业的注销风险及其对市场的影响

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102135

Shengnan Han

Policy cancellation remains a significant risk to life insurer solvency in digitally mediated markets. This study aimed to model and forecast lapse-driven solvency erosion using behavioral, institutional, and macroeconomic predictors structured into a unified econometric cascade. The study analysed 1559,661 policyholder records across 880 firm-quarter observations from 11 Chinese life insurers (2013–2023). Behavioural metrics (entropy, latency, notification fatigue) were derived from weekly user logs. Panel GMM, SVAR, Cox models, and regime-switching threshold regressions were implemented in Stata SE 18.0. Models were evaluated via log-likelihood, AIC/BIC, Wald tests, impulse response functions, and forecast error variance decomposition. Entropy (HR = 1.44), latency (HR = 1.27), and notification fatigue (HR = 1.52) significantly predicted lapse hazard. Lapse rates rose from 4.98 % to 8.47 % across CRI tertiles. Interaction terms (NFI × ACR, HR = 1.62) intensified risk. In GMM, CRI had a marginal solvency effect of 0.124; reserve mismatch and lapse rate had an adverse impact (–0.112, –0.087). SVAR attributed 42.1 % of solvency variance to CRI shocks; IRF peaked at quarter 4 (IRF = 0.056, p = 0.0034). A CRI threshold of 0.56 yielded a post-threshold reversal (β = –0.064, p = 0.0043). Predictive AUC = 0.772 with 84.3% TPR and 42-day median lead time. Behavioral metrics embedded in digital platforms enable early detection of solvency risk and provide intervention windows.

在数字中介市场中，保单取消仍然是寿险公司偿付能力的重大风险。本研究旨在利用行为、制度和宏观经济预测因子构建统一的计量经济学级联，对过失驱动的偿付能力侵蚀进行建模和预测。该研究分析了来自11家中国寿险公司（2013-2023年）880个公司季度的1559661份保单持有人记录。行为指标（熵、延迟、通知疲劳）来自每周用户日志。在Stata SE 18.0中实施面板GMM、SVAR、Cox模型和状态切换阈值回归。通过对数似然、AIC/BIC、Wald检验、脉冲响应函数和预测误差方差分解对模型进行评估。熵（HR = 1.44）、延迟（HR = 1.27）和通知疲劳（HR = 1.52）显著预测失效危害。CRI瓷砖的失效率从4.98 %上升到8.47 %。相互作用项（NFI × ACR, HR = 1.62）加剧了风险。在GMM中，CRI的边际偿付能力效应为0.124；储备错配和失效率对其有不利影响（-0.112,-0.087）。SVAR将42.1 %的偿付能力差异归因于CRI冲击；IRF在第4季度达到峰值（IRF = 0.056, p = 0.0034）。CRI阈值为0.56产生阈后逆转（β = -0.064, p = 0.0043）。预测AUC = 0.772，TPR为84.3%，中位提前期为42天。嵌入数字平台的行为指标能够早期发现偿付能力风险，并提供干预窗口。

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引用次数: 0

Foreign divestment and corporate ESG performance: Evidence from China 外资撤资与企业ESG绩效：来自中国的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102143

Chunxiao Si, Ying Xue

Foreign divestment has attracted increasing attention in the context of shifting global investment dynamics, yet its implications for corporate sustainability remain under-explored. This study investigates how foreign equity withdrawals affect firms’ ESG performance, using panel data on Chinese listed companies from 2009 to 2022 and a staggered difference-in-differences approach. The results show that foreign divestment significantly weakens firms’ overall ESG performance, with particularly pronounced declines in the social and governance dimensions. In contrast, environmental scores tend to improve following divestment. Further investigation suggests that this environmental improvement is primarily driven by increased transparency in environmental disclosures rather than enhancements in green innovation. Foreign divestment undermines firms’ social performance by reducing their technological capacity and supply chain efficiency, although firms may respond by modestly increasing charitable donations as a reputational strategy to mitigate market concerns. Governance outcomes deteriorate as divestment leads to reduced institutional ownership and heightened governance risks. Heterogeneity analyses show that labor-intensive firms and those located in eastern China are more negatively affected, while state-owned enterprises demonstrate greater resilience, supported by stronger financing capabilities and stricter regulatory oversight.

在全球投资动态不断变化的背景下，外国撤资吸引了越来越多的关注，但其对公司可持续性的影响仍未得到充分探讨。本研究利用2009年至2022年中国上市公司的面板数据和交错差分法，研究了外资股权退出对企业ESG绩效的影响。结果显示，外资撤资显著削弱了企业的整体ESG绩效，在社会和治理维度上的下降尤为明显。相比之下，在撤资后，环境得分往往会提高。进一步的调查表明，这种环境改善主要是由环境披露透明度的提高而不是绿色创新的增强所驱动的。外国撤资降低了企业的技术能力和供应链效率，从而破坏了企业的社会绩效，尽管企业可能会通过适度增加慈善捐赠作为一种声誉策略来缓解市场担忧。由于撤资导致机构所有权减少和治理风险增加，治理结果会恶化。异质性分析表明，劳动密集型企业和位于中国东部的企业受到的负面影响更大，而国有企业在更强的融资能力和更严格的监管的支持下表现出更强的弹性。

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引用次数: 0

Postponing retirement under age discrimination and grandparenting 因年龄歧视和祖父母而推迟退休

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102111

Leqing Huang

To tackle the population aging and improve the sustainability of the pension system, the Chinese government proposes to postpone the statutory retirement age gradually. However, when implementing this policy in China, age discrimination in the job market and grandchild care culture are two potential concerns. Therefore, this paper builds a multi-period OLG model with these two crucial factors to provide a quantitative evaluation of the potential policy impacts on population growth, labor supply, and pension funds. The framework allows for endogenous fertility and age-specific grandparenting. Taking an increase in childcare costs as an exogenous input, the model can well predict declining fertility both in level and trend. The results of the counterfactual analysis suggest that postponing retirement alleviates the pressure on the pension system over the next 50 years by reducing the number of retirees and increasing the size of the labor force. However, importantly, a five-year retirement delay could reduce fertility by more than twenty percent, which will affect the size of the labor force decades later and put additional long-run demographic pressure on the pension system. Regarding the intensive margin, postponing retirement will bring an extra flow of labor supply from old workers, while maintaining a comparatively high level of the participation among young generations due to the fertility adjustments.

为解决人口老龄化问题，提高养老金制度的可持续性，中国政府建议逐步推迟法定退休年龄。然而，在中国实施这一政策时，就业市场的年龄歧视和孙辈保育文化是两个潜在的问题。因此，本文结合这两个关键因素构建了一个多时期的OLG模型，定量评估政策对人口增长、劳动力供给和养老基金的潜在影响。该框架允许内生生育和特定年龄的祖父母。将育儿成本的增加作为外生输入，该模型可以较好地预测生育率下降的水平和趋势。反事实分析的结果表明，推迟退休可以通过减少退休人数和增加劳动力规模来缓解未来50年养老金制度的压力。然而，重要的是，推迟退休5年可能会使生育率降低20%以上，这将影响几十年后的劳动力规模，并给养老金制度带来额外的长期人口压力。在密集边际上，推迟退休将带来老年劳动力的额外劳动力供给流，同时由于生育率调整，年轻一代的参与率保持在较高水平。

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引用次数: 0

Global monetary policy spillovers and cross-border credit in a small open economy: Evidence from Fiji 小型开放经济体中的全球货币政策溢出效应和跨境信贷：来自斐济的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102124

Ameen Omar Shareef , K.P. Prabheesh , Disusu Delana , Jacinta Hesaie

This study analyses the impact of global monetary policy on Fiji’s macroeconomic dynamics by focusing on cross border flows, exchange rate, output and interest rate. We used the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model and quarterly data from 2003 to 2024 to identify the spillover channels of international monetary policy. Our findings suggest that Fiji’s macroeconomic variables are strongly influenced by global monetary policy proxied by US monetary policy. Specifically, an increase in the Federal Fund Rate is associated with a decline in cross-border claims and simultaneous rise in cross-border liabilities of Fiji. The impacts are primarily operated through the exchange rate channel, where exchange rate management leads to fluctuations in cross-border flows. These results highlight Fiji's vulnerability to external shocks and its policy trade-offs in a globally integrated environment.

本研究分析了全球货币政策对斐济宏观经济动态的影响，重点关注跨境流动、汇率、产出和利率。本文采用结构向量自回归（SVAR）模型和2003 - 2024年的季度数据来识别国际货币政策的溢出渠道。我们的研究结果表明，斐济的宏观经济变量受到以美国货币政策为代表的全球货币政策的强烈影响。具体地说，联邦基金利率的增加与斐济跨境索赔的减少和跨境负债的同时增加有关。这些影响主要是通过汇率渠道产生的，汇率管理导致跨境资金流动的波动。这些结果突出了斐济对外部冲击的脆弱性及其在全球一体化环境中的政策权衡。

引用次数: 0

Cross-Border E-Commerce Comprehensive Pilot Zones and urban entrepreneurial activity: Causal evidence from double-debiased machine learning 跨境电子商务综合试验区与城市创业活动：来自双去偏机器学习的因果证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102131

Kai Sun , Xin Zhong , Ding Xiong , Zheng Han

Using the establishment of Cross-Border E-Commerce Comprehensive Pilot Zones as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper employs double-debiased machine learning methods to systematically examine the impact of cross-border e-commerce on urban entrepreneurial activity and its mechanisms. The results show that cross-border e-commerce significantly enhances entrepreneurial activity. Mechanism analyses reveal that cross-border e-commerce influences urban entrepreneurial activity through three channels: first, by restructuring supply-chain systems, specifically by promoting supply-chain diversification and expanding supply-chain finance, thereby reducing operational frictions and alleviating liquidity constraints for entrepreneurs; second, it promotes digital financial inclusion, optimizes the institutional environment, and alleviates financing constraints faced by entrepreneurs; third, it forms economic, industrial, and talent agglomeration effects, optimizes the entrepreneurial ecosystem, and significantly improves factor allocation efficiency. Heterogeneity analyses further indicate that policy effects are strongest in manufacturing, wholesale and retail sectors but weaker in upstream enabling industries such as Information Technology services, logistics, finance, and scientific research. Moreover, private enterprises and self-employed businesses respond most positively, and inland cities experience significantly larger gains than coastal cities. These findings highlight the role of cross-border e-commerce as a policy instrument for fostering entrepreneurship, supporting structural transformation, and promoting more balanced regional development.

本文以建立跨境电子商务综合试验区为准自然实验，采用双去偏机器学习方法，系统考察了跨境电子商务对城市创业活动的影响及其机制。结果表明，跨境电子商务显著促进了创业活动。机制分析表明，跨境电商通过三种渠道影响城市创业活动：一是重构供应链体系，具体表现为促进供应链多元化，拓展供应链金融，减少经营摩擦，缓解企业家流动性约束；二是促进数字普惠金融，优化制度环境，缓解企业家面临的融资约束；三是形成经济、产业、人才集聚效应，优化创业生态系统，显著提高要素配置效率。异质性分析进一步表明，政策对制造业、批发和零售业的影响最大，但对信息技术服务、物流、金融和科研等上游赋能行业的影响较弱。此外，私营企业和个体经营企业的反应最为积极，内陆城市的收益明显大于沿海城市。这些发现突出了跨境电子商务作为政策工具在培育创业精神、支持结构转型和促进更平衡的区域发展方面的作用。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of global value chain participation on inflation dynamics in case of selected Asian economies 在选定的亚洲经济体中，全球价值链参与对通货膨胀动态的影响

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102129

Bhushan Praveen Jangam , Badri Narayan Rath

This paper investigates the relationship between global value chains (GVCs) and inflation dynamics in selected Asian economies from 2007 to 2022. Using the system generalized method of moments technique, the study reveals the following key findings: First, overall GVC integration is associated with higher inflation, with the impact varying depending on the type of GVC integration, such as forward and backward integration. Second, GVC integration, including its specific types, contributes to increased inflation in both the manufacturing and services sectors. Third, the control variables—labor market flexibility, money supply, productivity, and government expenditures, have mixed effects on inflation dynamics. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers to develop targeted strategies to manage inflationary pressures arising from GVC integration.

本文研究了2007年至2022年亚洲经济体中全球价值链与通胀动态之间的关系。利用矩量技术的系统广义方法，研究发现：第一，整体GVC整合与较高的通货膨胀相关，且影响程度取决于GVC整合类型（如正向整合和后向整合）。第二，全球价值链整合，包括其具体类型，都加剧了制造业和服务业的通胀。第三，控制变量——劳动力市场灵活性、货币供应量、生产率和政府支出——对通胀动态的影响是混合的。这些发现为决策者制定有针对性的战略来管理全球价值链整合带来的通胀压力提供了有价值的见解。

引用次数: 0

Food circulation systems and economic growth: Transmission mechanisms and regional heterogeneity in China 粮食流通系统与经济增长：中国的传导机制和区域异质性

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102130

Jing Xie , Zhijie Zeng , Yemei Li , Shaoan Huang

Under the conflict between food security and economic growth, this paper examines the impact of China's food circulation system and its changes on economic growth. Through the combination of model and panel regression, we draw the following conclusions. The conclusions are as follows: the intrinsic transmission mechanism affects growth by influencing total factor productivity (TFP), and it is regionally heterogeneous. The empirical analysis uses TFP as a mediating variable and divides the sample into two periods. The results show that the food circulation system in different periods affects economic growth through specific and different paths of action; there is a significant and non-linear relationship between changes in the food circulation system and TFP, and the transmission or mediating effect of TFP on economic growth is significant; the market-oriented reform of the food circulation system has a significant impact on economic growth in the north and south. The impact of market-oriented reforms of the food distribution system on economic growth is heterogeneous across regions, whether they are major food-producing regions or not, with different degrees of marketisation. Finally, some policy recommendations are made.

在粮食安全与经济增长冲突的背景下，本文考察了中国粮食流通体系及其变化对经济增长的影响。通过模型与面板回归相结合，我们得出以下结论：结果表明：内生传导机制通过影响全要素生产率（TFP）影响经济增长，且存在区域异质性；实证分析以TFP为中介变量，将样本分为两个时期。结果表明：不同时期的粮食流通系统通过特定的、不同的作用路径影响经济增长；食品流通体系变化与全要素生产率之间存在显著的非线性关系，全要素生产率对经济增长的传导或中介作用显著；食品流通体制的市场化改革对南北经济增长产生了重大影响。粮食分配体制市场化改革对经济增长的影响在不同地区存在异质性，无论它们是否是粮食主产区，市场化程度不同。最后，提出了政策建议。

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引用次数: 0

Market liberalization and consumption inequality: Quasi-experimental evidence from China’s negative list reform 市场自由化与消费不平等：来自中国负面清单改革的准实验证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102145

Xin Zeng , Yu Su , Shiyun Zhong , Bin Xu , Shaoyong Wu

Consumption inequality is a central challenge for achieving inclusive growth in developing countries. Although existing studies have examined income distribution, credit constraints, and demographic factors, the role of market institutions, particularly entry regulations, in shaping consumption inequality remains underexplored. This study uses China’s Market Access Negative List (NLMA) reform as a quasi-natural experiment, providing a concrete case for analyzing the effects of institutional market liberalization. Using five waves (2012–2020) of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) and a staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that the NLMA significantly reduces household consumption inequality by 2.7 %, which corresponds to approximately 5.2 % of the sample mean. Mechanism analyses indicate that the reform operates through two channels: on the supply side, it curbs local protectionism and market segmentation, enhancing resource allocation and consumer choice; on the demand side, it narrows income inequality by stimulating employment and entrepreneurship, thereby boosting the purchasing power of low-income households. Heterogeneity analyses reveal more substantial effects for households with lower education, higher dependency ratios, greater digital access, and stronger private-sector linkages. The reduction in inequality is largely attributable to developmental consumption (e.g., education and culture) rather than subsistence expenditures. Our findings underscore the critical role of institutional reforms in fostering inclusive consumption and offer new insights into the distributional effects of market liberalization.

消费不平等是发展中国家实现包容性增长的核心挑战。虽然现有的研究已经考察了收入分配、信贷限制和人口因素，但市场机构，特别是进入监管，在形成消费不平等方面的作用仍未得到充分探讨。本研究以中国市场准入负面清单改革为准自然实验，为分析制度性市场自由化的效果提供了一个具体案例。利用中国家庭面板研究（CFPS）的五个波（2012-2020）和交错差中差设计，我们发现NLMA显著降低了家庭消费不平等2.7%，相当于样本均值的约5.2%。机制分析表明，改革通过两个渠道发挥作用：在供给侧，抑制地方保护主义和市场分割，增强资源配置和消费者选择；在需求方面，它通过刺激就业和创业来缩小收入不平等，从而提高低收入家庭的购买力。异质性分析显示，受教育程度较低、抚养比较高、数字接入程度较高、私营部门联系较强的家庭受到的影响更大。不平等现象的减少主要是由于发展消费（例如教育和文化），而不是生活开支。我们的研究结果强调了制度改革在促进包容性消费方面的关键作用，并为市场自由化的分配效应提供了新的见解。

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引用次数: 0