Journal of Asian Economics最新文献

英文中文

The cancellation risk of China's life insurance industry and its impact on the market 中国寿险行业的注销风险及其对市场的影响

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102135

Shengnan Han

Policy cancellation remains a significant risk to life insurer solvency in digitally mediated markets. This study aimed to model and forecast lapse-driven solvency erosion using behavioral, institutional, and macroeconomic predictors structured into a unified econometric cascade. The study analysed 1559,661 policyholder records across 880 firm-quarter observations from 11 Chinese life insurers (2013–2023). Behavioural metrics (entropy, latency, notification fatigue) were derived from weekly user logs. Panel GMM, SVAR, Cox models, and regime-switching threshold regressions were implemented in Stata SE 18.0. Models were evaluated via log-likelihood, AIC/BIC, Wald tests, impulse response functions, and forecast error variance decomposition. Entropy (HR = 1.44), latency (HR = 1.27), and notification fatigue (HR = 1.52) significantly predicted lapse hazard. Lapse rates rose from 4.98 % to 8.47 % across CRI tertiles. Interaction terms (NFI × ACR, HR = 1.62) intensified risk. In GMM, CRI had a marginal solvency effect of 0.124; reserve mismatch and lapse rate had an adverse impact (–0.112, –0.087). SVAR attributed 42.1 % of solvency variance to CRI shocks; IRF peaked at quarter 4 (IRF = 0.056, p = 0.0034). A CRI threshold of 0.56 yielded a post-threshold reversal (β = –0.064, p = 0.0043). Predictive AUC = 0.772 with 84.3% TPR and 42-day median lead time. Behavioral metrics embedded in digital platforms enable early detection of solvency risk and provide intervention windows.

在数字中介市场中，保单取消仍然是寿险公司偿付能力的重大风险。本研究旨在利用行为、制度和宏观经济预测因子构建统一的计量经济学级联，对过失驱动的偿付能力侵蚀进行建模和预测。该研究分析了来自11家中国寿险公司（2013-2023年）880个公司季度的1559661份保单持有人记录。行为指标（熵、延迟、通知疲劳）来自每周用户日志。在Stata SE 18.0中实施面板GMM、SVAR、Cox模型和状态切换阈值回归。通过对数似然、AIC/BIC、Wald检验、脉冲响应函数和预测误差方差分解对模型进行评估。熵（HR = 1.44）、延迟（HR = 1.27）和通知疲劳（HR = 1.52）显著预测失效危害。CRI瓷砖的失效率从4.98 %上升到8.47 %。相互作用项（NFI × ACR, HR = 1.62）加剧了风险。在GMM中，CRI的边际偿付能力效应为0.124；储备错配和失效率对其有不利影响（-0.112,-0.087）。SVAR将42.1 %的偿付能力差异归因于CRI冲击；IRF在第4季度达到峰值（IRF = 0.056, p = 0.0034）。CRI阈值为0.56产生阈后逆转（β = -0.064, p = 0.0043）。预测AUC = 0.772，TPR为84.3%，中位提前期为42天。嵌入数字平台的行为指标能够早期发现偿付能力风险，并提供干预窗口。

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引用次数: 0

Food circulation systems and economic growth: Transmission mechanisms and regional heterogeneity in China 粮食流通系统与经济增长：中国的传导机制和区域异质性

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102130

Jing Xie , Zhijie Zeng , Yemei Li , Shaoan Huang

Under the conflict between food security and economic growth, this paper examines the impact of China's food circulation system and its changes on economic growth. Through the combination of model and panel regression, we draw the following conclusions. The conclusions are as follows: the intrinsic transmission mechanism affects growth by influencing total factor productivity (TFP), and it is regionally heterogeneous. The empirical analysis uses TFP as a mediating variable and divides the sample into two periods. The results show that the food circulation system in different periods affects economic growth through specific and different paths of action; there is a significant and non-linear relationship between changes in the food circulation system and TFP, and the transmission or mediating effect of TFP on economic growth is significant; the market-oriented reform of the food circulation system has a significant impact on economic growth in the north and south. The impact of market-oriented reforms of the food distribution system on economic growth is heterogeneous across regions, whether they are major food-producing regions or not, with different degrees of marketisation. Finally, some policy recommendations are made.

在粮食安全与经济增长冲突的背景下，本文考察了中国粮食流通体系及其变化对经济增长的影响。通过模型与面板回归相结合，我们得出以下结论：结果表明：内生传导机制通过影响全要素生产率（TFP）影响经济增长，且存在区域异质性；实证分析以TFP为中介变量，将样本分为两个时期。结果表明：不同时期的粮食流通系统通过特定的、不同的作用路径影响经济增长；食品流通体系变化与全要素生产率之间存在显著的非线性关系，全要素生产率对经济增长的传导或中介作用显著；食品流通体制的市场化改革对南北经济增长产生了重大影响。粮食分配体制市场化改革对经济增长的影响在不同地区存在异质性，无论它们是否是粮食主产区，市场化程度不同。最后，提出了政策建议。

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引用次数: 0

Growth matters, but so does its composition: An empirical study on India's multidimensional poverty, 1995–2021 增长很重要，但其构成也很重要：关于印度多维贫困的实证研究，1995-2021

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102133

Yanxi Bao , Tingxuan Liao

The sectoral composition of economic growth plays a pivotal role in shaping poverty outcomes, yet its influence on multidimensional poverty remains underexplored. Using state-level panel data from India for the period 1995–2021, this study investigates the relationship between economic growth—both aggregate and sectoral—and multidimensional poverty. To address endogeneity in aggregate growth, we employ an instrumental variables strategy and estimate a growth elasticity of multidimensional poverty between −1.4 and −1.6, suggesting moderate multidimensionally inclusiveness of India's growth process. However, this result demonstrates markedly sectoral heterogeneity: manufacturing and services—especially financial and non-market services—are significantly correlated with multidimensional poverty, whereas agriculture exhibits minimal impact. Further mechanism analysis reveals that manufacturing-led growth contributes to poverty reduction through two key channels: a narrowing gender income gap and declining child dependency ratios. These effects are particularly pronounced in reducing the share of out-of-school and nutritionally deprived children living in multidimensionally poor households.

经济增长的部门构成在形成贫困结果方面发挥着关键作用，但其对多维贫困的影响仍未得到充分探讨。本研究利用印度1995-2021年期间的邦级面板数据，调查了经济增长（包括总量和部门）与多维贫困之间的关系。为了解决总体增长的内生性问题，我们采用了工具变量策略，并估计了多维贫困的增长弹性在- 1.4和- 1.6之间，这表明印度的增长过程具有适度的多维包容性。然而，这一结果显示了明显的部门异质性：制造业和服务业——尤其是金融和非市场服务业——与多维贫困显著相关，而农业的影响最小。进一步的机制分析表明，制造业主导的增长通过缩小性别收入差距和降低儿童抚养比两个关键渠道有助于减贫。这些影响在减少生活在多方面贫困家庭中的失学和营养不良儿童的比例方面尤为明显。

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引用次数: 0

Spillover effect of tax enforcement: Evidence from China 税收执法的溢出效应：来自中国的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102126

Zuoming Zhang , Yefei Lu , Dongjie Tao , Binbin Tian

This paper examines the spatial spillover effects of tax enforcement using firm-level data from the National Tax Survey of China. We find that non-audited firms experience a significant increase in their effective income tax burden when other firms located in the same road-level area are audited, providing clear evidence of localized enforcement spillovers. Further analysis shows that the magnitude of these spillovers is jointly shaped by the intensity of enforcement information and firms' receptiveness to that information. Spillover effects are stronger when enforcement information is more concentrated, when firms operate in similar industries, and when the enforcing authority has greater deterrent credibility. They are also more pronounced among larger and more established firms, as well as in areas with higher population density and lower language diversity, where information transmission is more efficient. Moreover, firms respond to heightened perceived enforcement risk by adjusting accounting items that typically receive greater audit attention, including entertainment expenses, training expenditures, tax-exempt income, and subsidy income. Overall, the study identifies the mechanisms through which tax enforcement generates spatial spillovers and provides empirical insights for improving enforcement targeting and tax administration.

本文利用中国全国税务调查的企业层面数据，考察了税收执法的空间溢出效应。我们发现，当位于同一道路水平区域的其他公司受到审计时，未经审计的公司的有效所得税负担显著增加，这为局部执法溢出提供了明确的证据。进一步的分析表明，这些溢出效应的大小是由执法信息的强度和企业对这些信息的接受程度共同决定的。当执法信息更加集中，企业在相似的行业中经营，以及执法当局具有更大的威慑可信度时，溢出效应更强。在较大和较成熟的公司中，以及在人口密度较高和语言多样性较低的地区，信息传递效率较高，这种情况也更为明显。此外，公司通过调整通常受到更多审计关注的会计项目，包括娱乐费用、培训支出、免税收入和补贴收入，来应对感知到的执法风险增加。总体而言，该研究确定了税收执法产生空间溢出的机制，并为提高执法目标和税收管理提供了实证见解。

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引用次数: 0

Cross-Border E-Commerce Comprehensive Pilot Zones and urban entrepreneurial activity: Causal evidence from double-debiased machine learning 跨境电子商务综合试验区与城市创业活动：来自双去偏机器学习的因果证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102131

Kai Sun , Xin Zhong , Ding Xiong , Zheng Han

Using the establishment of Cross-Border E-Commerce Comprehensive Pilot Zones as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper employs double-debiased machine learning methods to systematically examine the impact of cross-border e-commerce on urban entrepreneurial activity and its mechanisms. The results show that cross-border e-commerce significantly enhances entrepreneurial activity. Mechanism analyses reveal that cross-border e-commerce influences urban entrepreneurial activity through three channels: first, by restructuring supply-chain systems, specifically by promoting supply-chain diversification and expanding supply-chain finance, thereby reducing operational frictions and alleviating liquidity constraints for entrepreneurs; second, it promotes digital financial inclusion, optimizes the institutional environment, and alleviates financing constraints faced by entrepreneurs; third, it forms economic, industrial, and talent agglomeration effects, optimizes the entrepreneurial ecosystem, and significantly improves factor allocation efficiency. Heterogeneity analyses further indicate that policy effects are strongest in manufacturing, wholesale and retail sectors but weaker in upstream enabling industries such as Information Technology services, logistics, finance, and scientific research. Moreover, private enterprises and self-employed businesses respond most positively, and inland cities experience significantly larger gains than coastal cities. These findings highlight the role of cross-border e-commerce as a policy instrument for fostering entrepreneurship, supporting structural transformation, and promoting more balanced regional development.

本文以建立跨境电子商务综合试验区为准自然实验，采用双去偏机器学习方法，系统考察了跨境电子商务对城市创业活动的影响及其机制。结果表明，跨境电子商务显著促进了创业活动。机制分析表明，跨境电商通过三种渠道影响城市创业活动：一是重构供应链体系，具体表现为促进供应链多元化，拓展供应链金融，减少经营摩擦，缓解企业家流动性约束；二是促进数字普惠金融，优化制度环境，缓解企业家面临的融资约束；三是形成经济、产业、人才集聚效应，优化创业生态系统，显著提高要素配置效率。异质性分析进一步表明，政策对制造业、批发和零售业的影响最大，但对信息技术服务、物流、金融和科研等上游赋能行业的影响较弱。此外，私营企业和个体经营企业的反应最为积极，内陆城市的收益明显大于沿海城市。这些发现突出了跨境电子商务作为政策工具在培育创业精神、支持结构转型和促进更平衡的区域发展方面的作用。

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引用次数: 0

Study on the effect of extreme weather on bank credit risk 极端天气对银行信用风险的影响研究

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102132

Kaifeng Li, Tong Yang

This study examines how extreme weather affects credit risk in A-share listed banks and its role in financial stability. By integrating bank financial data, meteorological records, and macroeconomic indicators, the research shows that extremely low-temperature days increase bank credit risk. State-owned banks are more resilient than local commercial banks. Regional bank competition also moderates the impact of extreme weather on bank risk. This study provides insights for improving bank risk management and shaping regulatory policies to address challenges posed by extreme weather and maintain financial stability.

本研究考察了极端天气对a股上市银行信用风险的影响及其在金融稳定中的作用。通过综合银行财务数据、气象记录和宏观经济指标，研究表明，极低温天气增加了银行信贷风险。国有银行比地方商业银行更具弹性。地区银行竞争也缓和了极端天气对银行风险的影响。本研究为改善银行风险管理和制定监管政策以应对极端天气带来的挑战和维护金融稳定提供了见解。

引用次数: 0

The impact of global value chain participation on inflation dynamics in case of selected Asian economies 在选定的亚洲经济体中，全球价值链参与对通货膨胀动态的影响

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102129

Bhushan Praveen Jangam , Badri Narayan Rath

This paper investigates the relationship between global value chains (GVCs) and inflation dynamics in selected Asian economies from 2007 to 2022. Using the system generalized method of moments technique, the study reveals the following key findings: First, overall GVC integration is associated with higher inflation, with the impact varying depending on the type of GVC integration, such as forward and backward integration. Second, GVC integration, including its specific types, contributes to increased inflation in both the manufacturing and services sectors. Third, the control variables—labor market flexibility, money supply, productivity, and government expenditures, have mixed effects on inflation dynamics. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers to develop targeted strategies to manage inflationary pressures arising from GVC integration.

本文研究了2007年至2022年亚洲经济体中全球价值链与通胀动态之间的关系。利用矩量技术的系统广义方法，研究发现：第一，整体GVC整合与较高的通货膨胀相关，且影响程度取决于GVC整合类型（如正向整合和后向整合）。第二，全球价值链整合，包括其具体类型，都加剧了制造业和服务业的通胀。第三，控制变量——劳动力市场灵活性、货币供应量、生产率和政府支出——对通胀动态的影响是混合的。这些发现为决策者制定有针对性的战略来管理全球价值链整合带来的通胀压力提供了有价值的见解。

引用次数: 0

Digitization of education and the urban-rural education gap: Evidence from the Chinese household income project data 教育数字化与城乡教育差距：来自中国家庭收入项目数据的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102127

Xiang Deng , Hongming Zhang , Yiling Gao , Chunlin Wan

Using data from the 2018 Chinese Household Income Project, this study evaluates the impact of China's Modern Distance Education Project for Rural Primary and Secondary Schools (MDEP) on urban-rural education gap by employing a cohort-based DID for cross-sectional data approach. The results demonstrate that the MDEP significantly narrowed the education gap, with particularly strong effects observed among rural female students and children from lower-income households. In terms of the mechanism of action, the digitization of education through three paths: improving learning conditions, improving academic performance, and expanding knowledge horizons. Our analysis further reveals that the MDEP contributes to raising income floors for rural households. Crucially, the MDEP effectiveness in boosting incomes depends on beneficiaries' capacity to translate their enhanced educational human capital into tangible economic gains. This study provides robust empirical evidence evaluating how digital education initiatives reduce urban-rural education gap, demonstrating that targeted technological interventions can effectively bridge equity gaps in compulsory education systems.

本研究利用2018年中国家庭收入项目的数据，采用基于队列的DID横截面数据方法，评估了中国农村中小学现代远程教育项目（MDEP）对城乡教育差距的影响。结果表明，MDEP显著缩小了教育差距，对农村女学生和低收入家庭儿童的影响尤为明显。在作用机制上，教育数字化通过改善学习条件、提高学习成绩、拓展知识视野三条路径实现。我们的分析进一步表明，MDEP有助于提高农村家庭的收入底线。至关重要的是，MDEP在提高收入方面的有效性取决于受益人将其加强的教育人力资本转化为有形经济收益的能力。本研究提供了强有力的实证证据，评估了数字教育举措如何缩小城乡教育差距，表明有针对性的技术干预可以有效弥合义务教育体系中的公平差距。

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引用次数: 0

Global monetary policy spillovers and cross-border credit in a small open economy: Evidence from Fiji 小型开放经济体中的全球货币政策溢出效应和跨境信贷：来自斐济的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102124

Ameen Omar Shareef , K.P. Prabheesh , Disusu Delana , Jacinta Hesaie

This study analyses the impact of global monetary policy on Fiji’s macroeconomic dynamics by focusing on cross border flows, exchange rate, output and interest rate. We used the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model and quarterly data from 2003 to 2024 to identify the spillover channels of international monetary policy. Our findings suggest that Fiji’s macroeconomic variables are strongly influenced by global monetary policy proxied by US monetary policy. Specifically, an increase in the Federal Fund Rate is associated with a decline in cross-border claims and simultaneous rise in cross-border liabilities of Fiji. The impacts are primarily operated through the exchange rate channel, where exchange rate management leads to fluctuations in cross-border flows. These results highlight Fiji's vulnerability to external shocks and its policy trade-offs in a globally integrated environment.

本研究分析了全球货币政策对斐济宏观经济动态的影响，重点关注跨境流动、汇率、产出和利率。本文采用结构向量自回归（SVAR）模型和2003 - 2024年的季度数据来识别国际货币政策的溢出渠道。我们的研究结果表明，斐济的宏观经济变量受到以美国货币政策为代表的全球货币政策的强烈影响。具体地说，联邦基金利率的增加与斐济跨境索赔的减少和跨境负债的同时增加有关。这些影响主要是通过汇率渠道产生的，汇率管理导致跨境资金流动的波动。这些结果突出了斐济对外部冲击的脆弱性及其在全球一体化环境中的政策权衡。

引用次数: 0

Digital infrastructure and cognitive gap among children: Evidence from China 数字基础设施与儿童认知差距：来自中国的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102125

Ge Tian , Zi Yang , Xun Zhang

This paper examines how large-scale digital infrastructure affects children’s cognitive ability and exacerbates cognitive disparities among them. Leveraging the rollout of the “Broadband China” initiative, we construct an intensity difference-in-differences (DID) model and utilize panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). Our results show that the expansion of digital infrastructure significantly impairs children’s cognitive development, with the adverse effects disproportionately concentrated among rural, especially left-behind children. Mechanism analysis reveals that digital infrastructure weakens the income channel for left-behind children, as it does not lead to significantly higher earnings for their migrant parents compared to non-left-behind counterparts, and any income gains are less likely to be invested in education. It also distorts the knowledge acquisition channel, as left-behind children—due to reduced educational expectations—are less likely to leverage digital resources for learning. Furthermore, the entertainment channel is intensified by limited parental supervision, making left-behind children more vulnerable to excessive online entertainment. We further explore policy interventions that may mitigate these negative impacts. Our findings suggest that digital infrastructure, in the absence of complementary safeguards, can reinforce existing inequalities—highlighting the need for targeted support policies in the digital era

本文探讨了大规模数字基础设施如何影响儿童的认知能力，并加剧了儿童之间的认知差异。利用“宽带中国”计划的推出，我们构建了一个强度差中差（DID）模型，并利用了中国家庭面板研究（CFPS）的面板数据。我们的研究结果表明，数字基础设施的扩张显著损害了儿童的认知发展，负面影响不成比例地集中在农村儿童，尤其是留守儿童。机制分析表明，数字基础设施削弱了留守儿童的收入渠道，因为与非留守儿童相比，数字基础设施并没有使其流动父母的收入显著提高，而且任何收入增长都不太可能投资于教育。它还扭曲了知识获取渠道，因为留守儿童由于教育期望降低，不太可能利用数字资源进行学习。此外，由于父母监督有限，娱乐渠道被强化，使留守儿童更容易受到过度网络娱乐的影响。我们将进一步探讨可能减轻这些负面影响的政策干预措施。我们的研究结果表明，在缺乏补充保障的情况下，数字基础设施可能会加剧现有的不平等现象，这凸显了数字时代有针对性的支持政策的必要性

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