Economic analysis of shipping route planning in deep-sea mining operations under uncertain shipping market

Abstract

Deep-sea mining is an emerging interdisciplinary and cross-domain research topic. As commercialization of deep-sea mining advances, economic analysis of the maritime transportation of minerals is critical to forming sound commercial plans. This paper proposes an approach for the economic analysis of shipping route planning in deep-sea mining operations, considering the varying capacities of the proposed mobile offshore minerals units (MOMUs) and the limited capacity. Capital expense (CAPEX), operational expense (OPEX), and voyage expense (VOYEX) are taken into account according to the arrangement of mineral transportation vessels (MTVs) with different capacities of MOMUs and fluctuating shipping prices. Monte Carlo Simulation is used to analyze the uncertainties of the total cost for MTVs with respect to CAPEX, OPEX, and VOYEX. A case study of the shipping route from the Chinese contract area in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone to Ningbo-Zhoushan Port is presented to interpret the proposed approach. The derived results demonstrate that 120,000 tons is the most economically viable MOMU size, saving at least 1.9 % of the total cost. These savings are mainly due to better scheduling, speed, and resilience to market prices. The proposed approach can support economic feasibility for deep-sea mining projects and provide investors with more specific operational measures to make well-informed decisions.