Large-scale flood forecasting in coastal reservoir with hydrological modeling

IF 1.827 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Arabian Journal of Geosciences Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI:10.1007/s12517-024-12109-w
Vijay Suryawanshi, Ramesh Honnasiddaiah, Nasar Thuvanismail
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Abstract

Coastal cities face increasing flood risks due to urban expansion and climate change. This study simulates flood hydrographs in the Netravathi River watershed using the HEC-HMS hydrological model to improve flood management in Mangalore, Karnataka, which has experienced severe floods recently. The SCS curve number (CN) method was selected for its efficacy in estimating surface runoff across diverse land use and soil types. GIS tools analyzed spatial data on soil types, drainage, and land cover changes from 1990 to 2021, enhancing runoff forecast accuracy. Model calibration optimized parameters with historical flood events, and validation used independent past flood events. Validation showed a strong correlation between observed and simulated runoff hydrographs, particularly during peak discharge periods. A high Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (0.89) and low Percentage Bias (0.65%) demonstrate the model’s accuracy. The coefficient of determination (0.86) confirms the model’s predictive capability. The HEC-HMS model effectively forecasts streamflows in ungauged catchments within the Netravathi sub-basin using measured rainfall data, enabling more precise planning and management of water resource developments.

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利用水文模型进行沿海水库大规模洪水预报
由于城市扩张和气候变化,沿海城市面临着越来越大的洪水风险。本研究使用 HEC-HMS 水文模型模拟了 Netravathi 河流域的洪水水文图,以改善卡纳塔克邦芒格洛尔的洪水管理。选择 SCS 曲线数 (CN) 方法是因为它在估算不同土地利用和土壤类型的地表径流方面非常有效。GIS 工具分析了从 1990 年到 2021 年的土壤类型、排水和土地覆盖变化的空间数据,从而提高了径流预测的准确性。模型校准根据历史洪水事件对参数进行了优化,验证则使用了独立的历史洪水事件。验证结果表明,观测到的径流水文图与模拟的径流水文图之间具有很强的相关性,尤其是在峰值排水时段。高纳什-萨特克利夫效率(0.89)和低百分比偏差(0.65%)证明了模型的准确性。确定系数(0.86)证实了模型的预测能力。HEC-HMS 模型利用测得的降雨数据有效地预测了 Netravathi 子流域内未经测量的集水区的河水流量,从而能够更精确地规划和管理水资源开发。
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来源期刊
Arabian Journal of Geosciences
Arabian Journal of Geosciences GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
自引率
0.00%
发文量
1587
审稿时长
6.7 months
期刊介绍: The Arabian Journal of Geosciences is the official journal of the Saudi Society for Geosciences and publishes peer-reviewed original and review articles on the entire range of Earth Science themes, focused on, but not limited to, those that have regional significance to the Middle East and the Euro-Mediterranean Zone. Key topics therefore include; geology, hydrogeology, earth system science, petroleum sciences, geophysics, seismology and crustal structures, tectonics, sedimentology, palaeontology, metamorphic and igneous petrology, natural hazards, environmental sciences and sustainable development, geoarchaeology, geomorphology, paleo-environment studies, oceanography, atmospheric sciences, GIS and remote sensing, geodesy, mineralogy, volcanology, geochemistry and metallogenesis.
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