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Characteristics and evaluation of E2S member of Sanduo formation of Gaoyou Sag, North Jiangsu Basin, China 苏北盆地高游凹陷三多组E2S段特征及评价
IF 1.827 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2025-12-13 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-025-12392-1
Orkhan Isgandarov, Yang Shaochun, Muhammad Kashif, Aynur Abdullayeva, Muhammad Sajid, Nasib Efandi, Muhammad Ahmed

The petroliferous studied block (Zhen 11 block, Zhenwu oilfield, Gaoyou sag) is situated in the North Jiangsu basin, China. The studied Sanduo formation is the target zone with two members. The main objective of the studied formation is to evaluate the reservoir characteristics of the Sanduo formation. To accomplish the aims, the core data, logging data, mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP), Cathodoluminescence (CL), X-ray diffraction (XRD), and Petrographic thin sections analysis of more than 10 wells have been analyzed. The reservoir rock types are felspathic litharenite and lithic arkoses. The grain rounding and sorting are deprived, with low texture maturity with moderate to good reservoir characteristics (10% to 30% porosity and 0.4 × 10− 3µm2 to 8000 × 10− 3µm2 permeability). Mechanical compaction, quartz and calcite cement, feldspar dissolution, and alteration of clay minerals are the main diagenetic processes. Thick-bedded coarse-grained sandstones have been deposited in a channel, where primary pores are common and the rock has strong compaction resistance, resulting in better reservoir quality. In the channel bay and estuary sedimentary environment, fine-grained and thin-layer sandstones are deposited, which represent weak anti-compressive capacity and rapid attenuation of pores during burial, indicating low reservoir characteristics. Carbonate cements block pores that significantly reduce the reservoir properties. Type I and type II zones are favorable reservoirs that are primarily developed in the superimposed development positions of meandering channel, side beach, braided channel, and underwater distributary channel at the front of the delta. The sandstone deposited in these environments has a high content of quartz and feldspar with good sorting. The rock has strong anti-compaction ability during burial and compaction, and the original intergranular pores are well preserved, which permits the acidic fluids migration into the reservoir. Due to that, dissolution can create secondary pores that enhance the reservoir characteristics.

研究的含油气区块(高油凹陷真武油田真11区块)位于苏北盆地。研究的三多组为两段目标区。研究的主要目的是评价三朵组的储层特征。为此,对10余口井的岩心资料、测井资料、注汞毛细管压力(MICP)、阴极发光(CL)、x射线衍射(XRD)、岩相薄片分析等进行了分析。储层岩石类型为长石屑岩和岩屑砂岩。孔隙度为10% ~ 30%,渗透率为0.4 × 10−3µm2 ~ 8000 × 10−3µm2,结构成熟度较低,储层特征中等~良好。机械压实作用、石英和方解石胶结作用、长石溶蚀作用和粘土矿物蚀变作用是主要成岩作用过程。河道内沉积厚层状粗粒砂岩,原生孔隙普遍,岩石抗压实性强,储层质量较好。河道湾、河口沉积环境中沉积细粒、薄层砂岩,抗压能力弱,埋藏过程中孔隙衰减快,储层特征较低。碳酸盐胶结物堵塞孔隙,显著降低储层物性。ⅰ型和ⅱ型为有利储层,主要发育在三角洲前缘曲流河道、滨滩、辫状河道和水下分流河道的叠加发育位置。这些环境下沉积的砂岩石英、长石含量高,分选效果好。岩石在埋藏和压实过程中具有较强的抗压实能力,原始粒间孔隙保存较好,有利于酸性流体向储层运移。因此,溶蚀作用可以形成次生孔隙,增强储层特征。
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引用次数: 0
Geochemical fingerprints as indicators of provenance, weathering and tectonic setting in Lekki Lagoon Sediments, Southwest Nigeria 尼日利亚西南部Lekki泻湖沉积物物源、风化和构造背景的地球化学指纹图谱
IF 1.827 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-025-12378-z
Olusegun Adebayo Phillips, Olugbenga Temitope Fajemila, Adedamola Beatrice Alao-Daniel

Geochemical analysis of sediment samples from the Lekki Lagoon was carried out to provide evidence for provenance, chemical weathering conditions and tectonic settings. Following sample digestion, Inductively Coupled Plasma Emission Spectroscopy (ICP-ES) and Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectroscopy (ICP-MS) were subsequently employed for the quantification of major and trace elements respectively. Higher Al/Si ratios in Lekki Lagoon Sediments (LLS) were observed in mud-rich sediments, whereas the non-cohesive fine- to medium-grained sands are enriched in silica due to lower Al/Si ratios. Geochemical characterization indicates that the sediments are predominantly comparable to quartz arenite and litharenite, with a few samples resembling subarkose and sublitharenite. They display a broad spectrum of compositional maturity, ranging from low to very high. The plagioclase index of alteration (PIA) and chemical index of alteration (CIA) indicate that most LLS samples originated from moderately to strongly weathered silicate sources. However, the inclusion of the Fe and Mg (FM) constituents in the ternary plot expressed as A-CNK-FM indicated weak to strong chemical weathering. The geochemical discrimination diagrams collectively suggested that the Lekki Lagoon sediments (LLS) were predominantly derived from felsic to andesitic source rocks, with compositional signatures pointing to a passive margin setting. Minor but notable contributions from continental island arc sources indicated a mixed provenance influenced by multiple tectonic regimes.

对Lekki泻湖沉积物样品进行了地球化学分析,提供了物源、化学风化条件和构造背景的证据。样品消解后,分别采用电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法(ICP-ES)和电感耦合等离子体质谱法(ICP-MS)进行主量元素和微量元素的定量分析。Lekki Lagoon沉积物(LLS)中Al/Si比值较高,而非粘性细粒至中粒砂由于Al/Si比值较低而富含二氧化硅。地球化学特征表明,沉积物以石英砂质岩和岩屑砂质岩为主,少量样品类似于粗砂岩和岩屑砂质岩。它们的成分成熟度范围很广,从低到非常高。斜长石蚀变指数(PIA)和化学蚀变指数(CIA)表明,大部分LLS样品来源于中~强风化硅酸盐。而以A-CNK-FM表示的三元图中包含的Fe和Mg (FM)组分显示出弱至强的化学风化作用。地球化学判别图表明,Lekki礁湖沉积物主要来源于长英质-安山岩烃源岩,其组成特征为被动边缘环境。大陆岛弧源的贡献虽小但显著,表明物源受多种构造制度的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Boron species adsorption from water using calcium oxide adsorbent: kinetics, isotherm, and thermodynamic studies 用氧化钙吸附剂从水中吸附硼:动力学,等温线和热力学研究
IF 1.827 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-025-12380-5
Abdullah Y. Al Haj Ahmed, Husam Al Najar, Nasser Abu Ghalwa

Boron contamination in water sources represents a critical environmental and public health concern due to its toxicity and adverse impacts on ecosystems and human well-being. This study systematically investigates calcium oxide (CaO) as an effective adsorbent for boron removal from aqueous solutions. CaO is considered a promising candidate for water treatment owing to its high reactivity, large surface area, and facile production. Key operational parameters, including pH, adsorbent dosage, initial boron concentration, contact time, and temperature, were thoroughly examined to optimize the adsorption process. The highest removal efficiency was achieved at pH 9, with an adsorbent dosage of 0.4 g/50 ml and an initial boron concentration of 16.5 mg/L. To further enhance removal performance and evaluate factor interactions, a 2³ factorial experimental design was implemented using Minitab 18.0, enabling both optimization and statistical assessment of the parameters. The adsorption mechanism was analyzed through isotherm, kinetic, and thermodynamic models. Equilibrium data were best described by the Sips isotherm model, indicating the presence of heterogeneous adsorption sites, while the adsorption kinetics followed the pseudo-second-order model, suggesting that the adsorption rate is primarily controlled by interactions between boron ions and the CaO surface. Thermodynamic analysis revealed that the process is endothermic and non-spontaneous under the tested conditions Furthermore, the influence of temperature on adsorption efficiency was systematically assessed, showing an increase in boron uptake with rising temperatures, which is attributed to enhanced diffusion rates and increased surface reactivity. The study also highlights the scalability of CaO-based adsorption systems and their potential integration into conventional water treatment processes. These findings provide comprehensive insights into designing sustainable and cost-effective strategies for mitigating boron contamination in real-world water purification applications.

水源中的硼污染由于其毒性和对生态系统和人类福祉的不利影响,是一个严重的环境和公共卫生问题。本研究系统地研究了氧化钙(CaO)作为一种有效的吸附剂去除水溶液中的硼。由于其高反应性、大表面积和易于生产,CaO被认为是一种很有前途的水处理候选者。考察了pH、吸附剂用量、初始硼浓度、接触时间和温度等关键操作参数,以优化吸附工艺。在pH为9、吸附剂投加量为0.4 g/50 ml、硼初始浓度为16.5 mg/L的条件下,去除率最高。为了进一步提高去除效果并评估因子的相互作用,使用Minitab 18.0进行了2³析因实验设计,对参数进行了优化和统计评估。通过等温线、动力学和热力学模型分析了吸附机理。Sips等温线模型最能描述平衡数据,表明存在非均相吸附位点,而吸附动力学遵循伪二阶模型,表明吸附速率主要由硼离子与CaO表面的相互作用控制。热力学分析表明,在测试条件下,该过程是吸热的,非自发的。此外,系统地评估了温度对吸附效率的影响,表明随着温度的升高,硼的吸收率增加,这归因于扩散速率的增强和表面反应性的提高。该研究还强调了cao基吸附系统的可扩展性及其与常规水处理工艺集成的潜力。这些发现为设计可持续的和具有成本效益的策略来减轻现实世界水净化应用中的硼污染提供了全面的见解。
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引用次数: 0
An Integrated 1-Dimensional and Seismic approach for Pore Pressure Prediction in an X– field of the Niger Delta 尼日尔三角洲X油田孔隙压力综合一维地震预测方法
IF 1.827 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-025-12367-2
Paul Aigba, Joseph Ebeniro, Meshach Omudu, Chukwunenyoke Amos-Uhegbu, Mmaduabuchi Uzoegbu, Joshua Ugwu

Pore pressure prediction is an essential input in drilling programs. An integrated rather than a single approach for pore pressure prediction delivers an accurate or near accurate results required for drilling without characteristic geohazards and enhanced cost implication. A one-dimensional prediction from petrophysical data served as an input VES-Vp regression. Prestack Depth Migration seismic was the source of Effective velocity picked from seismic semblance. The use of Dix equation was employed not only to convert effective velocity to interval velocity but to also provide the platform for the converting stacking velocity to Normal Moveout Velocity. The interval velocity served as an input data to generate the pore pressure volume of the field’s seismic gather after a checkshot from a well within the field was used to calibrate the seismic data. Results show that the integration of both log data and seismic velocity delivered a deeper pore pressure prediction of the subsurface and that of the entire seismic volume. While the use of log could deliver pore pressure at a depth of 12,521.62ft, the seismically-derived pressure could train as deep as 15,914.4ft. Pore pressure could have been predicted for deeper seismic data, the use of short cable length in acquisition and the non-availability of good data beyond 3000 ms. constrained seismic data acquisition. The field investigated is mildly overpressured.

孔隙压力预测是钻井计划的重要输入。综合而非单一的孔隙压力预测方法可以提供钻井所需的准确或接近准确的结果,而不会产生典型的地质灾害,也不会增加成本。岩石物理数据的一维预测作为输入的VES-Vp回归。叠前深度偏移地震是有效速度的来源。利用Dix方程不仅可以将有效速度转换为层间速度,而且为叠加速度转换为法向移动速度提供了平台。井间速度作为输入数据,在对油田内的一口井进行校验后,生成油田地震集的孔隙压力体积。结果表明,将测井资料与地震速度相结合,可以对地下和整个地震体进行更深层次的孔隙压力预测。使用测井可以在12,521.62英尺的深度提供孔隙压力,而地震产生的压力可以达到15,914.4英尺的深度。孔隙压力可以预测更深的地震数据,在采集时使用较短的电缆长度,以及无法获得超过3000毫秒的良好数据,限制了地震数据采集。所调查的油田有轻度超压。
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引用次数: 0
Early warning model for landslides in rare Earth mining sites under the coupled rainfall and ore leaching conditions 降雨-浸矿耦合条件下稀土矿区滑坡预警模型
IF 1.827 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-025-12381-4
Shu He, Xiao Feng Zhang, Zhi Ye

Rainfall and in-situ leaching, a mining process involving the injection of chemical solutions to extract rare earth elements, are the two primary triggers for landslides in ion-absorbed rare earth deposits. While previous research has often treated these factors in isolation, this study specifically investigates their coupled effect. We developed a numerical model to simulate slope seepage and stability, employing the finite element method for unsaturated seepage analysis and the limit equilibrium method for stability calculation. The model was used to determine rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds for slope failure under varying durations of leaching cessation prior to rainfall. The results demonstrate that a longer interval between stopping injection and the onset of rainfall significantly enhances slope stability. Furthermore, we identified that high pore water pressure is a critical failure mechanism. Consequently, a novel landslide early warning model was established based on quantitative pore water pressure thresholds, which can be categorized into different warning levels. This model provides a practical and scientific framework for mitigating landslide risks in rare earth mining areas, enabling a better balance between safety and production efficiency.

降雨和就地浸出是离子吸收型稀土矿床发生滑坡的两个主要诱因。就地浸出是一种注入化学溶液提取稀土元素的采矿过程。虽然以前的研究经常孤立地处理这些因素,但本研究专门调查了它们的耦合效应。建立了模拟边坡渗流与稳定性的数值模型,采用有限元法进行非饱和渗流分析,采用极限平衡法进行稳定性计算。该模型用于确定降雨前不同浸出停止时间下边坡破坏的降雨强度-持续时间(ID)阈值。结果表明,较长的停止注入与降雨开始之间的时间间隔显著提高了边坡的稳定性。此外,我们发现高孔隙水压力是一个关键的破坏机制。在此基础上,建立了基于定量孔隙水压力阈值的滑坡预警模型,并将其划分为不同的预警级别。该模型为减轻稀土矿区滑坡风险提供了一个实用、科学的框架,实现了安全与生产效率的更好平衡。
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引用次数: 0
Heavy metals distribution and associated ecological risk assessment of roadside dust at prominent bus stands in Gaya, Bihar (India) 印度比哈尔邦加亚主要巴士站路边尘埃重金属分布及相关生态风险评估
IF 1.827 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-025-12384-1
Kumari Saumya, Alvia Aslam, Rajesh Kumar Ranjan

Urbanisation and industrialisation have led to heavy metal contamination of road dust, posing a global health threat. Gaya (Bihar) has witnessed an upsurge in the population and undergone rapid urban development in the past decade, leading to widespread dust prevalence. The present study evaluates the heavy metal abundance and ecological risks associated with roadside dust at eight prominent bus stands in Gaya, Bihar (India). The collected roadside dust samples were assessed for five toxic heavy metals including copper (Cu), lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), zinc (Zn), and nickel (Ni). The minimum and maximum concentration ranged from 26.03–54.23 mg kg–1, 1.68–34.11 mg kg–1, 114.44–322.81 mg kg–1, and 3.50–13.27 mg kg–1 for Cu, Pb, Zn and Ni respectively. Cd was undetectable in the current study. Average concentrations of Cu and Zn were higher than the upper continental crust (UCC) values, while Pb concentrations exceeded UCC values at all sites except Panchanpur bus stand. Various indices (concentration factor, contamination degree, pollution load index, and index of geoaccumulation), employed to evaluate the risks associated with dust pollution, indicated low to moderate heavy metals contamination. However, the potential ecological risk factor and potential ecological risk index revealed a low to no risk associated with heavy metals. This study, the first of its kind near a UNESCO World Heritage site, establishes a crucial baseline, necessitating further evaluation of future risks to human health and the environment.

城市化和工业化导致道路粉尘重金属污染,对全球健康构成威胁。Gaya(比哈尔邦)在过去十年中见证了人口的激增和快速的城市发展,导致了广泛的沙尘流行。本研究评估了印度比哈尔邦加亚8个主要公交车站与路边粉尘相关的重金属丰度和生态风险。对收集到的路边粉尘样本进行了五种有毒重金属的评估,包括铜(Cu)、铅(Pb)、镉(Cd)、锌(Zn)和镍(Ni)。Cu、Pb、Zn和Ni的最小和最大浓度分别为26.03 ~ 54.23 mg kg-1、1.68 ~ 34.11 mg kg-1、114.44 ~ 322.81 mg kg-1和3.50 ~ 13.27 mg kg-1。在目前的研究中未检测到Cd。Cu和Zn的平均浓度均高于上地壳(UCC)值,而Pb的平均浓度除Panchanpur公交车站外均高于上地壳(UCC)值。利用浓度系数、污染程度、污染负荷指数、地质堆积指数等指标评价扬尘污染风险,表明重金属污染程度为低至中度。然而,潜在生态风险因子和潜在生态风险指数显示重金属的相关风险为低至无风险。这项研究是联合国教科文组织世界遗产附近的首次此类研究,它建立了一个关键的基线,有必要进一步评估未来对人类健康和环境的风险。
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引用次数: 0
Unlocking geothermal potential in abandoned hydrocarbon and exploration wells: a sustainable energy solution 释放废弃碳氢化合物和探井的地热潜力:可持续能源解决方案
IF 1.827 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-025-12393-0
Muhammad Affan Uddin Ali Khan, Syed Imran Ali, Shaine Muhammadali Lalji, Aliza Hussain, Wajih Hasan, Munira Akhtar Khan, Syed Danish Rasool

Geothermal energy is increasingly recognized as a vital renewable energy source with significant economic and environmental benefits, contributing to the global transition to cleaner energy. This paper examines the economic feasibility and environmental impact of geothermal energy development, focusing on the high initial costs of drilling and infrastructure, which are offset by low operational costs and long-term sustainability. Although geothermal projects require substantial upfront investment, particularly in drilling, they offer a reliable, low-maintenance energy solution with operational lifespans of 20 to 50 years. The paper analyzes cost–benefit dynamics, comparing the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of geothermal power with other renewables such as wind and solar, showing that geothermal is competitive in regions with high resource potential. In addition to cost considerations, it discusses geothermal energy’s environmental advantages, emphasizing its low greenhouse gas emissions and carbon intensity, which make it one of the most sustainable energy sources. Reducing emissions is crucial for addressing climate change and meeting global carbon-reduction targets. The paper also highlights the importance of resource management to avoid overexploitation and depletion. Strategies such as fluid reinjection and the development of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) are presented as ways to ensure long-term viability. Furthermore, it presents successful case studies from California, Alberta, the Philippines, and the United Kingdom, where abandoned oil, gas, and exploration wells have been repurposed for geothermal energy production. These case studies demonstrate the cost-saving and environmental benefits of using existing infrastructure, reducing the need for new drilling and minimizing environmental impacts. By leveraging advanced technologies and innovative approaches, geothermal energy can provide a sustainable, low-carbon energy source that addresses both economic and environmental challenges. The paper concludes by underscoring geothermal energy’s potential to contribute significantly to global energy sustainability, offering a reliable, eco-friendly solution for the future.

地热能日益被认为是一种重要的可再生能源,具有重大的经济和环境效益,有助于全球向清洁能源过渡。本文考察了地热能源开发的经济可行性和环境影响,重点关注了钻井和基础设施的高初始成本,这些成本被低运营成本和长期可持续性所抵消。虽然地热项目需要大量的前期投资,特别是在钻井方面,但它们提供了一种可靠、低维护的能源解决方案,使用寿命为20至50年。本文分析了成本效益动态,比较了地热发电与风能、太阳能等其他可再生能源的平准化电力成本(LCOE),表明地热在资源潜力高的地区具有竞争力。除了成本方面的考虑,它还讨论了地热能的环境优势,强调其低温室气体排放和碳强度,使其成为最可持续的能源之一。减排对于应对气候变化、实现全球减碳目标至关重要。文章还强调了资源管理的重要性,以避免过度开发和枯竭。流体回注和增强型地热系统(EGS)的开发等策略被认为是确保长期可行性的方法。此外,它还介绍了来自加利福尼亚、阿尔伯塔、菲律宾和英国的成功案例研究,在这些案例中,废弃的石油、天然气和探井被重新用于地热能源生产。这些案例研究表明,利用现有基础设施可以节省成本和环境效益,减少新钻井的需求,并最大限度地减少对环境的影响。通过利用先进技术和创新方法,地热能可以提供可持续的低碳能源,解决经济和环境挑战。论文最后强调了地热能对全球能源可持续性做出重大贡献的潜力,为未来提供了可靠、环保的解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Comparison study on the effect of boundary condition and pattern allocation for improved oil recovery (IOR) 边界条件与模式配置对提高采收率效果的对比研究
IF 1.827 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-025-12371-6
Harsh Patni, Sivakumar Pandian

Monitoring waterflooding operations is vital for sustaining good production performance in oil reservoirs with complex geometries or limited well control. Traditional methods such as finite difference, material balance, and plotting techniques like Hall plot and bubble plot are time-intensive and sensitive to grid resolution. In this study, the streamline simulation approach using MBAL software was employed to assess the effects of boundary conditions (no-flow and constant pressure) and injection well pattern designs (five-spot, seven-spot, and nine-spot) on oil recovery efficiency. By comparing various boundary conditions and patterns, the study aims to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of streamline simulation-based models for waterflooding monitoring and surveillance. A hypothetical waterflooding model incorporating different boundary conditions and pattern types was developed and analyzed for improved oil recovery optimization strategies. The study revealed sweep efficiencies of 8.89% (no-flow), 68.28% (constant pressure), 96.46% (five-spot), 91.24% (seven-spot), and 99.64% (nine-spot), with corresponding recovery factors of 5.75%, 44.18%, 75.02%, 70.91%, and 77.50%, respectively. These results demonstrate how boundary conditions and pattern layout dramatically impact displacement performance. The nine-spot pattern under constant pressure exhibited the highest sweep and recovery, with streamline simulation offering a rapid and computationally affordable method for such comparative evaluation. Findings highlight the importance of early-stage pattern screening in IOR planning.

在复杂几何形状或井控有限的油藏中,监测水驱作业对于保持良好的生产性能至关重要。传统的方法,如有限差分、材料平衡和绘图技术,如霍尔图和气泡图,时间密集,对网格分辨率敏感。本研究采用MBAL软件的流线模拟方法,评估了边界条件(无流和恒压)和注水井网设计(五点、七点和九点)对采收率的影响。通过比较各种边界条件和模式,本研究旨在证明基于流线模拟的水驱监测和监测模型的效率和准确性。建立了考虑不同边界条件和网型的假设水驱模型,并对其进行了分析,以提高采收率。研究结果表明,无流、恒压、5点、7点、99.64%的扫描效率分别为8.89%、68.28%、96.46%、91.24%和99.64%,相应的采收率分别为5.75%、44.18%、75.02%、70.91%和77.50%。这些结果表明,边界条件和模式布局如何显著影响位移性能。恒定压力下的9点模式显示出最高的扫描和采收率,流线模拟为这种比较评估提供了一种快速且计算负担得起的方法。研究结果强调了早期模式筛查在IOR计划中的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of deforestation on runoff dynamics in the Wardha River sub-basin: a decadal analysis and future projections 森林砍伐对瓦尔达河流域径流动态的影响:年代际分析和未来预测
IF 1.827 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-025-12372-5
Asheesh Sharma, Neha K. M. Nasim, Mandeep Poonia, Ankush O. Rai, Sayali A. Jawalkar, Reinhard Hinkelmann

Deforestation and urban expansion substantially alter hydrological processes by accelerating runoff, reducing groundwater recharge, and increasing flood risks. The current study assessed runoff dynamics in the Wardha River sub-basin from 2010 to 2020 using the NRCS-CN method, with land-use/land-cover (LULC) and rainfall inputs processed on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform and validated against observed discharge. During this period, mean runoff increased by 11.34%, linked to a 23.34% decline in forest cover and a 148% rise in impervious surfaces. Elasticity analysis indicated that rainfall influenced runoff (elasticity > 1), but land-use transitions had a stronger effect, with the 2010–2020 changes showing elasticity 2.07. A hypothetical-future scenario (HFS), simulating full forest-to-cropland and fallow-to-built-up conversion, projected an additional 10% rise in runoff with elasticity 1.91, underscoring the hydrological risks of continued land transformation. Model evaluation confirmed good performance, with R² > 0.90 across scenarios and the HFS scenario showing the best fit (NSE = 0.504, PBIAS = − 29.4%, RMSE = 21.59 mm). Despite scale mismatches between area-averaged runoff and point-based discharge, simulations based on 2010, 2020, and CN-adjusted datasets achieved moderate to acceptable accuracy. These findings highlight the dominant role of land-use change, particularly deforestation, in shaping runoff dynamics and flood risks in the Wardha River sub-basin, compared with the broader but less intense influence of rainfall variability.

森林砍伐和城市扩张加速了径流,减少了地下水补给,增加了洪水风险,从而大大改变了水文过程。本研究使用NRCS-CN方法评估了2010 - 2020年瓦尔达河流域径流动态,并在谷歌地球引擎(GEE)平台上处理了土地利用/土地覆盖(LULC)和降雨输入,并根据观测流量进行了验证。在此期间,平均径流量增加了11.34%,与森林覆盖率下降23.34%和不透水地表增加148%有关。弹性分析表明,降雨影响径流(弹性>; 1),但土地利用转换的影响更强,2010-2020年变化呈现弹性2.07。一个假设的未来情景(HFS),模拟了完全的森林到农田和休耕到建筑的转换,预计径流将增加10%,弹性为1.91,强调了持续土地转换的水文风险。模型评价证实了良好的性能,各场景的R²>; 0.90和HFS场景的拟合效果最佳(NSE = 0.504, PBIAS = - 29.4%, RMSE = 21.59 mm)。尽管在区域平均径流和基于点的流量之间存在尺度不匹配,但基于2010年、2020年和经过cn调整的数据集的模拟结果达到了中等到可接受的精度。这些发现突出了土地利用变化,特别是森林砍伐,在形成瓦尔达河次流域径流动态和洪水风险方面的主导作用,而降雨变异的影响更广泛但不那么强烈。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of land use land cover (LULC) changes and its drivers on natural resources in Lake Ziway Catchment, central rift Valley of Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚中部裂谷Ziway湖流域土地利用、土地覆被变化及其驱动因素对自然资源的影响
IF 1.827 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-025-12377-0
Araba Jemal Ibrahim, Geremew Fekadu Boru

Understanding the impacts of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes and their drivers is crucial for sustainable management of natural resources. Thus, this rigorous study aimed to examine the trends, drivers, and consequences of land use land cover changes (LULC) in the Lake Ziway catchment, central rift valley of Ethiopia. The study followed a mixed- methodological systematic and justified approach that included remote sensing and GIS techniques, household surveys, focus group discussions, and in-depth interviews. The rigorous study shows that the conversion of forest land into agricultural and settlement lands is the major detected LULC change over the last 30 years in the catchment. Cultivated land has increased by 40.60% and settlement and plantation lands have increased by 61.54% and 60%, respectively. On the other hand, forest land decreased by 54.85% and grazing land have decreased by 15.85% respectively. Water bodies and wetlands have also decreased by 8.70% and 19.32% area coverage, respectively. Both the direct and indirect driving forces of the LULC changes were identified. The study also indicates that the participation of local communities in watershed management is low. The study further indicates that LULC changes observed in the Lake Ziway Catchment had statistically and practically significant environmental and socio-economic impacts. Over all, the rigorous study showed the changes in land use land cover and its drivers were common in Lake Ziway Catchment. Therefore, appropriate policies and strategies are required to address LULC change impacts and enhance sustainable utilization and management of the Lake Ziway catchment.

了解土地利用和土地覆盖(LULC)变化的影响及其驱动因素对自然资源的可持续管理至关重要。因此,这项严谨的研究旨在研究埃塞俄比亚中部裂谷Ziway湖集水区土地利用和土地覆盖变化(LULC)的趋势、驱动因素和后果。该研究采用了一种混合方法、系统和合理的方法,包括遥感和地理信息系统技术、住户调查、焦点小组讨论和深入访谈。严谨的研究表明,近30年来,森林用地向农业用地和居民点用地的转变是流域LULC变化的主要特征。耕地增加了40.60%,居民点和人工地分别增加了61.54%和60%。林地面积减少54.85%,放牧面积减少15.85%。水体和湿地的覆盖面积也分别减少了8.70%和19.32%。确定了土地利用温度变化的直接驱动力和间接驱动力。研究还表明,当地社区对流域管理的参与程度较低。研究进一步表明,Ziway湖流域的LULC变化在统计和实践上都具有显著的环境和社会经济影响。总的来说,严谨的研究表明,土地利用、土地覆盖及其驱动因素的变化在紫卫湖流域是常见的。因此,需要适当的政策和战略来应对LULC变化的影响,并加强Ziway湖集水区的可持续利用和管理。
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引用次数: 0
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Arabian Journal of Geosciences
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