An adaptive method for real-time photovoltaic power forecasting utilizing mathematics and statistics: Case studies in Australia and Vietnam

Abstract

The advancement of Photovoltaic technology has undergone rapid acceleration in recent years. Nonetheless, the most significant drawback of Photovoltaic is its intermittence, making it an obvious source of power fluctuation. This study proposes a novel scheme for real-time or intraday PV power forecasting by adopting two predictive models, namely, White-box and Combination. The White-box model is implemented employing mathematical calculations and statistics called Exceedance Probability. Meanwhile, the Combination model is an aggregation of several predictive models' outputs including the White-box model and benchmark ones by dynamically adjusting the weight coefficient of each model based on their forecasting accuracy. The experimental results, which are verified on two PV systems corresponding to two case studies located at Vietnam and Australia, indicate that the two proposed models outperform other referenced models as $\mathrm{nMAPE}$ improves approximately 40% and 38% in terms of the first and second case study, respectively. In particular, the White-box model shows superiority by updating the forecast every 10 min, which can adapt to the fluctuation of weather conditions whereas the Combination one yields acceptable precision, indicating its flexible application.