Enhancing Streamflow Prediction in Ungauged Basins Using a Nonlinear Knowledge-Based Framework and Deep Learning

Abstract

In hydrology, a fundamental task involves enhancing the predictive power of a model in ungagged basins by transferring information on physical attributes and hydroclimate dynamics from gauged basins. Introducing an integrated nonlinear clustering framework, this study aims to develop a comprehensive framework that augments predictive performance in basins where direct measurements are sparse or absent. In this framework, uniform manifold approximation and projection (UMAP) is used as a nonlinear method to extract the essential features embedded in hydro-climatological attributes and physical properties. Then, the Growing Neural Gas (GNG) clustering model is used to find the basins that potentially share similar hydro-climatological behaviors. Besides UMAP-GNG, the integration of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) as a linear method to reduce dimensionality with common clustering methods are also assessed to serve as benchmarks. The results reveal that the combination of clustering algorithms with the PCA method may lead to loss of information while the nonlinear method (UMAP) can extract more informative features. The efficacy of the proposed framework is assessed across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) by training a single Base Model using long short-term memory (LSTM) for the centroids of all clusters and then, fine-tuning the model on the centroids of each cluster separately to create a regional model. The results indicate that using the information extracted by the UMAP-GNG method to guide a Base Model can significantly improve the accuracy in most of the clusters and enhance the median prediction accuracy within different clusters from 0.04 to 0.37 of KGE in ungauged basins.