How public transport users would react to different pandemic alert scenarios in the post-vaccine era? An analysis of preferences and attitudes of the users in the metropolitan area of Naples (Italy)

IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI:10.1016/j.tra.2024.104301
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Abstract

The dramatic experience due to COVID-19 spread has reshaped travel preferences of public transport (PT) users worldwide, especially in urban areas. As the PT is expected to recover its major role in such areas, it is important to understand the factors influencing PT users’ willingness to pay (WTP) for onboard safety measures, in the event of future pandemic scenarios. Furthermore, both individual latent traits (e.g. concern for the pandemic, trust/distrust in city services and national government actions) and perceived entity of the pandemic are expected to influence preferences for PT users under such a post-pandemic scenario. This paper analyses the preferences and attitudes of PT users in the Naples metropolitan area (Italy) through a hybrid choice model (HCM). First, WTPs for onboard service features are assessed in three hypothetical pandemic alert scenarios, which are explicitly introduced in the model as context variables. Second, the model allows for assessing the relative importance of onboard characteristics as the pandemic scenario evolves. Third, the model incorporates psycho-attitudinal variables and shows how they impact WTPs. Finally, several policy implications for policymakers and transport companies operating in the study area are derived. In particular: (a) WTPs for increased/reduced occupancy rate and green pass check at the entrance significantly depend upon the latent traits investigated; (b) relative importance of safety measures varies significantly between the pandemic alert scenarios; (c) possible ticketing strategies for PT users have been investigated based on the HCM findings, searching for the configuration of safety measures to ensure that users accept a 100% allowed capacity on board during moderate/high pandemic scenarios without varying the price, as well as the price variations needed to stay in an indifference range of the utility in restricted conditions of the service; (d) the acceptability of safety measures has been assessed through a simulation exercise, finding that non-vaccinated travellers are 2.6 and 2.1 times more willing to accept a full capacity of the buses/trains on board than vaccinated people if subscribers or not, respectively.
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在后疫苗时代,公共交通用户将如何应对不同的大流行病警报情景?对意大利那不勒斯大都会区用户的偏好和态度的分析
由于 COVID-19 的传播,全球公共交通(PT)用户的出行偏好发生了巨大变化,尤其是在城市地区。由于公共交通有望恢复其在这些地区的主要作用,因此了解影响公共交通用户在未来大流行情况下对车载安全措施的支付意愿(WTP)的因素非常重要。此外,个人的潜在特质(如对疫情的担忧、对城市服务和国家政府行为的信任/不信任)和对疫情实体的感知预计都会影响疫情后情景下公共交通用户的偏好。本文通过混合选择模型(HCM)分析了意大利那不勒斯大都市区公共交通用户的偏好和态度。首先,在三种假定的大流行警报情景下评估了机上服务功能的 WTP,并将其作为背景变量明确引入模型中。其次,该模型允许随着大流行情景的变化评估机上特征的相对重要性。第三,该模型纳入了心理态度变量,并展示了这些变量对 WTP 的影响。最后,得出了对政策制定者和在研究地区运营的运输公司的若干政策影响。特别是(a) 增加/减少乘座率和在入口处检查绿色通行证的 WTP 显著取决于所调查的潜在特质;(b) 在不同的大流行警报情景下,安全措施的相对重要性存在显著差异;(c) 根据 HCM 的研究结果,研究了针对公共交通用户的可能的票务策略,寻找安全措施的 配置,以确保用户在不改变价格的情况下接受在中度/高度流行情况下 100%的允许乘 客量,以及在服务受限的情况下保持在效用的冷漠范围内所需的价格变化; (d) 通过模拟演练评估了安全措施的可接受性,发现未接种疫苗的旅客比接种疫苗的旅 客分别高 2.6 倍和 2.1 倍。(d) 通过模拟演练评估了安全措施的可接受性,发现未接种疫苗的旅客比已接种疫苗的旅客更愿意接受巴士/火车满载的情况,分别是已接种疫苗的旅客的 2.6 倍和 2.1 倍。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
13.20
自引率
7.80%
发文量
257
审稿时长
9.8 months
期刊介绍: Transportation Research: Part A contains papers of general interest in all passenger and freight transportation modes: policy analysis, formulation and evaluation; planning; interaction with the political, socioeconomic and physical environment; design, management and evaluation of transportation systems. Topics are approached from any discipline or perspective: economics, engineering, sociology, psychology, etc. Case studies, survey and expository papers are included, as are articles which contribute to unification of the field, or to an understanding of the comparative aspects of different systems. Papers which assess the scope for technological innovation within a social or political framework are also published. The journal is international, and places equal emphasis on the problems of industrialized and non-industrialized regions. Part A''s aims and scope are complementary to Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Part C: Emerging Technologies and Part D: Transport and Environment. Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review. Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour. The complete set forms the most cohesive and comprehensive reference of current research in transportation science.
期刊最新文献
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