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Social norms at crosswalks: Impact on pedestrian-yielding behavior and nudge intervention effectiveness 人行横道社会规范对行人让行行为的影响及助推干预效果
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104342
Xiuying Xin , Ning Jia , Shuai Ling
We conduct two surveys to investigate the underlying mechanism of drivers’ pedestrian-yielding behavior (DPYB) from a social norms perspective (Study 1), and design a norm-based intervention to assess its potential to alter DPYB (Study 2). In Study 1, we compare the normative expectations of DPYB between Zhejiang Province, which has a high pedestrian-yielding rate (PYR), and Hubei Province, which has a low PYR. The social norms in these two provinces differ significantly. Respondents from Zhejiang perceive others yielding for pedestrians more frequently (descriptive norm, DN), and are more likely to consider non-yielding behavior inappropriate (injunctive norm, IN). Both DN and IN significantly influence DPYB, indicating the causal effect of social norms on DPYB. In Study 2, to enhance the generalization of Study 1′s results, we expand the target provinces from two to nine, confirming the results from Study 1. Additionally, we design a norm-based ’nudge’ intervention aimed at promoting DPYB. This intervention would be implemented within a ride-hailing platform, which is widely used in China and could potentially provide a cost-effective means of supervising DPYB compared to other interventions like surveillance camera, as ride-hailing cars can access any street while the number of intersections with cameras is limited. Through a survey experiment, we compare the acceptance and perceived effectiveness of the nudge intervention with three other interventions: scrolls, ground paint and surveillance cameras. The nudge intervention and the introduction of surveillance cameras were found to be particularly effective. Interestingly, although there were no significant differences in acceptance among the four tested interventions, respondents from high PYR provinces had significantly higher acceptance and perceived effectiveness of the nudge intervention than those from the low PYR provinces. Our findings suggest that social norms play a crucial role in intervention design and a reliable measure for assessing an intervention’s effectiveness. The results encourage the policymakers to implement norm-based nudge intervention but highlight the need to consider existing social norms in shaping the effectiveness and receptivity of nudge-based strategies. This research underscores the significance of leveraging social norm as a focal point for designing interventions to enhance driver behavior towards increased pedestrian safety.
本研究从社会规范角度对驾驶员让行行为的潜在机制进行了研究(研究1),并设计了一种基于规范的干预措施来评估其改变让行行为的潜力(研究2)。研究1比较了让行率高的浙江省和低让行率的湖北省对让行行为的规范期望。这两个省的社会规范差异很大。来自浙江的受访者更频繁地感知到他人对行人的让步(描述性规范,DN),并且更有可能认为不让步的行为是不恰当的(禁令规范,IN)。DN和IN对DPYB均有显著影响,说明社会规范对DPYB有因果影响。在研究2中,为了增强研究1结果的泛化性,我们将目标省份从2个扩大到9个,证实了研究1的结果。此外,我们设计了一个基于规范的“助推”干预,旨在促进DPYB。这种干预措施将在网约车平台内实施,该平台在中国被广泛使用,与监控摄像头等其他干预措施相比,它可能提供一种具有成本效益的监督DPYB的手段,因为网约车可以进入任何街道,而安装摄像头的十字路口数量有限。通过一项调查实验,我们比较了轻推干预与其他三种干预:卷轴、地面油漆和监控摄像头的接受度和感知有效性。研究发现,轻推干预和引入监控摄像头特别有效。有趣的是,尽管四种干预措施的接受度没有显著差异,但来自高PYR省份的受访者对轻推干预的接受度和感知有效性显著高于来自低PYR省份的受访者。我们的研究结果表明,社会规范在干预设计中起着至关重要的作用,也是评估干预效果的可靠措施。研究结果鼓励政策制定者实施基于规范的助推干预,但强调在制定基于助推策略的有效性和可接受性时需要考虑现有的社会规范。本研究强调了利用社会规范作为设计干预措施的焦点的重要性,以提高驾驶员行为以增加行人安全。
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引用次数: 0
Commuter choice of UAM-friendly neighborhoods uam友好社区的通勤选择
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104338
Ying Zhao, Tao Feng
Urban Air Mobility (UAM) which provides swift intra- and intercity transportation services has the potential to induce shifts in individuals’ commuting and residential decisions. It is anticipated that, in residential areas, UAM services would enhance accessibility for residents. An UAM-friendly neighborhood represents a novel, integrated neighborhood concept that provides the infrastructure and travel environment required to facilitate UAM services, thereby promoting sustainable neighborhood development and improving accessibility. To gain a deeper understanding of commuters’ choice behavior in UAM-friendly neighborhoods, we designed a stated choice experiment. Using data collected in Beijing city, we estimated a mixed logit model with interaction effects to identify the choice preferences of different people while capturing the unobserved preference heterogeneity. We found that individuals generally prefer to reside in such neighborhoods where the access distance to UAM vertiports is within one kilometer, the parking fee is either low (5 yuan/day) or free, the commuting time by UAT is 15 min, and drone window-docking delivery services are available. Households with high incomes (>400,000 yuan/year) and those owning a car are likely to adopt these novel neighborhoods. There is a varying degree of heterogeneity observed regarding residential location and distance to UAM vertiports among individuals in different age groups. Results of the elasticity analysis indicate that UAT commuting cost has the greatest impact on the likelihood of residing in UAM-friendly neighborhoods.
城市空中交通(UAM)提供快速的城市内和城际交通服务,有可能导致个人通勤和居住决策的转变。预期在住宅区,UAM的服务将会改善居民的交通。UAM友好型社区代表了一种全新的、综合的社区概念,它提供了便利UAM服务所需的基础设施和出行环境,从而促进了社区的可持续发展,并改善了可达性。为了更深入地了解uam友好社区中通勤者的选择行为,我们设计了一个陈述选择实验。利用北京市的数据,我们估计了一个具有交互效应的混合logit模型,以识别不同人的选择偏好,同时捕捉未观察到的偏好异质性。我们发现,个人普遍倾向于居住在距离UAM垂直机场1公里以内,停车费低(5元/天)或免费,UAT通勤时间为15分钟,并且有无人机窗口对接配送服务的社区。高收入家庭(40万元/年)和有车家庭可能会接受这些新颖的社区。不同年龄组的个体在居住位置和到UAM垂直机场的距离方面存在不同程度的异质性。弹性分析结果表明,大学通勤成本对大学友好社区居住可能性的影响最大。
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引用次数: 0
Revealing accessibility disparities: A latent class analysis linking objective and subjective accessibility measures 揭示可达性差异:连接客观和主观可达性措施的潜在类分析
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104341
Milan L. Moleman, Maarten Kroesen
The last decade denoted a growing interest in perceived accessibility, yet the link between perceived and objective accessibility measures is understudied. This paper aims to address accessibility poverty by identifying groups with different levels of perceived accessibility. To achieve this aim, we develop a latent class model that relates perceived accessibility patterns to social, transport, and geographical conditions encountered by individuals. To support the specification of the latent class model, we develop a theoretical framework that links transport, social, and geographical conditions with perceived inaccessibility. Data is obtained from the Dutch National Travel Survey, which includes information on travel patterns and preferences. In total, 20,020 participants are included in the analysis. The latent class model identified six social groups with varying levels of perceived accessibility. Notably, while 89% of the individuals perceive excellent accessibility, a minority of 11% experiences different forms of inaccessibility. In addition, the latent class model showed that social rather than transport or spatial conditions encountered by individuals determine perceived inaccessibility. The results lend support to tailored policies aimed at reducing accessibility poverty and social exclusion for specific segments of the population.
过去十年,人们对感知可达性的兴趣日益浓厚,但感知可达性和客观可达性措施之间的联系尚未得到充分研究。本文旨在通过识别不同感知可达性水平的群体来解决可达性贫困问题。为了实现这一目标,我们开发了一个潜在阶级模型,将感知到的可达性模式与个人遇到的社会、交通和地理条件联系起来。为了支持潜在阶级模型的规范,我们开发了一个理论框架,将交通、社会和地理条件与感知的不可达性联系起来。数据来自荷兰国家旅行调查,其中包括关于旅行模式和偏好的信息。总共有20,020名参与者被纳入分析。潜在阶级模型确定了六个具有不同感知可及性水平的社会群体。值得注意的是,虽然89%的人认为可访问性很好,但11%的少数人经历了不同形式的不可访问性。此外,潜在阶级模型表明,个体所遇到的社会而不是交通或空间条件决定了感知的不可达性。研究结果为制定针对性政策提供了支持,这些政策旨在减少特定人群的无障碍、贫困和社会排斥。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating relationships between ridesourcing and public transit using big data analysis and nonlinear machine learning: A case study of Shanghai, China 利用大数据分析和非线性机器学习研究拼车与公共交通之间的关系:以中国上海为例
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104339
Xinghua Liu , Qian Ye , Ye Li , Kaidi Yang , Xuan Shao
Ridesourcing has transformed the landscape of passenger transportation systems in many cities worldwide, but whether it competes with or complements public transport (PT) is still debated, and the literature is limited. Therefore, this study aims to address this knowledge gap by measuring the relationships between the two systems and examining their determinants using a multisource big data analysis and nonlinear machine learning approach, with Shanghai, China, as the study case. First, we used the observed ridesourcing data in Shanghai to compute the fastest PT alternative for each ridesourcing trip based on the Amap open platform and subsequently compared the travel patterns (i.e., distance, duration, and generalized cost) of the two systems. Second, we propose a technical framework that considers the spatiotemporal availability and generalized cost acceptability of PT services, as well as the inclusivity of ridesourcing services, to accurately classify and identify the relationship between ridesourcing and PT systems. Finally, we explored the importance of four types of determinants, namely, ridesourcing characteristics, PT service, built environment, and weather, and their nonlinear effects on different relationships based on extreme gradient boosting and Shapley additive explanations. Our results show that the fastest PT alternative involves an average travel distance, generalized travel time, and generalized cost that are 1.16, 2.13, and 1.15 times greater, respectively, than those of ridesourcing. Competitive trips account for 36% of urban areas but only 16% in the suburbs. Furthermore, more than 70% and 10% of the ridesourcing trips in suburban areas are used to complement and integrate PT, respectively. The nonlinear machine learning framework identified the top three determinants of integration as travel cost, distance to the CBD, and travel time. Notably, determinants such as the distance to the CBD and temperature have nonlinear effects on these relationships. These findings offer valuable insights for designing multimodal transportation options that integrate the benefits of ridesourcing and PT.
拼车已经改变了全球许多城市客运系统的格局,但它是否与公共交通(PT)竞争或互补仍存在争议,而且文献有限。因此,本研究旨在通过测量两个系统之间的关系并使用多源大数据分析和非线性机器学习方法检查其决定因素来解决这一知识差距,并以中国上海为研究案例。首先,我们利用上海观测到的拼车数据,在高德地图开放平台上计算每趟拼车行程的最快PT替代方案,然后比较两种系统的出行模式(即距离、持续时间和广义成本)。其次,我们提出了一个技术框架,考虑了PT服务的时空可用性和广义成本可接受性,以及拼车服务的包容性,以准确分类和识别拼车与PT系统之间的关系。最后,基于极端梯度增强和Shapley加性解释,探讨了拼车特征、公交服务、建筑环境和天气四类决定因素的重要性,以及它们对不同关系的非线性影响。研究结果表明,最快速公交方案的平均出行距离、广义出行时间和广义成本分别是拼车方案的1.16倍、2.13倍和1.15倍。竞争性出行占城市地区的36%,但在郊区仅占16%。此外,在郊区,超过70%和10%的拼车出行分别用于补充和整合PT。非线性机器学习框架确定了出行成本、到CBD的距离和出行时间这三个决定因素。值得注意的是,诸如到CBD的距离和温度等决定因素对这些关系具有非线性影响。这些发现为设计多式联运方案提供了有价值的见解,这些方案将拼车和PT的好处结合起来。
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引用次数: 0
Eating-out behavior across different restaurant segment types: Implications for transportation, public health, and food service sectors 不同类型餐厅的外出就餐行为:对交通、公共卫生和餐饮业的影响
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104337
Angela J. Haddad, Aupal Mondal, Chandra R. Bhat
This paper investigates the factors shaping dining-out preferences, focusing on the allocation of monthly weekday dinner occasions across four key restaurant segments: quick-service restaurants (QSRs), coffeehouses (CHs), casual-service restaurants (CSRs), and full-service restaurants (FSRs). The paper employs a Multiple Discrete-Count Extreme Value (MDCNTEV) modeling approach to analyze the data obtained from an online survey conducted in Texas in 2022. The findings reveal the compromises and considerations consumers make when determining their dining habits. Model estimation results indicate that frequent restaurant diners are white, affluent, single men, own multiple vehicles, and work full-time from a physical workplace location. There are also notable differences in those who tend to patronize different restaurant segments. QSRs attract younger, non-white, low-income individuals living with roommates, and residing in QSR-dense areas. CHs primarily draw in younger, non-white, working individuals. CSRs are favored by older individuals, single white women, car-less individuals, and residents of high-restaurant-density areas. FSRs are popular among non-white, high-income individuals. Our findings highlight the multifaceted interactions of demographic, socioeconomic, lifestyle, and location factors influencing consumer dining behavior, offering valuable insights for the transportation and urban planning, public health, and food service sectors.
本文研究了影响外出就餐偏好的因素,重点关注每月工作日晚餐次数在四个主要餐厅细分市场中的分配情况:快餐店(QSRs)、咖啡馆(CHs)、休闲服务餐厅(CSRs)和全套服务餐厅(FSRs)。本文采用多重离散计数极值(MDCNTEV)建模方法,分析了 2022 年在得克萨斯州进行的在线调查所获得的数据。研究结果揭示了消费者在决定其就餐习惯时所做出的妥协和考虑。模型估算结果表明,经常去餐厅用餐的人是白人、富裕、单身男性、拥有多辆汽车、在实际工作地点全职工作。此外,倾向于光顾不同餐厅细分市场的人群也存在明显差异。QSR 吸引的是与室友同住、居住在 QSR 密集地区的年轻、非白人、低收入人群。CH主要吸引年轻、非白人、有工作的人。CSR 则受到老年人、单身白人女性、无车一族以及餐馆密集地区居民的青睐。FSR 则受到非白人、高收入人群的青睐。我们的研究结果凸显了影响消费者就餐行为的人口、社会经济、生活方式和地理位置等多方面因素的相互作用,为交通与城市规划、公共卫生和餐饮服务部门提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Causal inference for transport research 运输研究的因果推理
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104324
Daniel J. Graham
This paper provides a consolidated overview of the statistical literature on causal inference, emphasising its relevance and applicability for transportation research. It outlines a framework for causal identification based on the concept of potential outcomes and provides a summary of core contemporary methods that can be used for estimation. Typical challenges encountered in identifying cause–effect relationships in applied transportation research are analysed via case study simulations, and R code to execute and adapt causal estimators is made available. Causal inference can be used to obtain unbiased and consistent estimates of causal effects in non-experimental settings when interventions or exposures are non-randomly assigned. The paper argues that empirical analyses in transport research are typically conducted in this setting, and consequently, that causal inference has immediate and valuable applicability.
本文综合概述了因果推断方面的统计文献,强调了其与交通研究的相关性和适用性。它概述了基于潜在结果概念的因果识别框架,并总结了可用于估算的当代核心方法。通过案例研究模拟分析了在交通应用研究中识别因果关系所遇到的典型挑战,并提供了执行和调整因果估算器的 R 代码。当干预或暴露非随机分配时,因果推理可用于在非实验环境中获得无偏且一致的因果效应估计值。本文认为,交通研究中的实证分析通常就是在这种环境下进行的,因此因果推理具有直接而宝贵的适用性。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of electric vehicle use on trip frequency and vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) in the Netherlands 荷兰使用电动汽车对出行频率和车辆行驶公里数(VKT)的影响
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104325
Linlin Zhang, Dea van Lierop, Dick Ettema
The transition from conventional vehicles to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) is expected to significantly contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector. However, the effectiveness of this transition depends on how BEVs and PHEVs are used compared to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). This paper analyzes data from the 2018–2020 Dutch National Travel Surveys to assess travel behavior of single-car households across four vehicle types: ICEVs, HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs. Specifically, we focus on daily trip frequency and vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) for both commuting and non-commuting purposes, while examining how these vehicle usage patterns correlate with vehicle attributes, socioeconomic and demographic factors, and the built environment. Our descriptive analysis shows that BEV and PHEV users have significantly longer daily VKT for both commuting and non-commuting travel compared to ICEV and HEV users. The model results reveal that after controlloing for various factors, BEVs are associated with shorter daily VKT for non-commuting travel compared to other powertrain types, while a pattern not observed for commuting travel. Notably, there is no evidence of a rebound effect linked to the use of BEV and PHEV powertrains. Additionally, leased or company vehicles, regardless of powertrain type, are associated with higher daily VKT and a higher probability of trip-making compared to privately owned vehicles. This higher daily VKT observed for BEV and PHEV users is largely due to the higher prevalence of their vehicles being leased or company cars, rather than the powertrain type itself.
从传统汽车向电池电动汽车(BEV)和插电式混合动力电动汽车(PHEV)过渡,预计将大大有助于减少交通部门的温室气体排放。然而,与内燃机汽车(ICEV)和混合动力电动汽车(HEV)相比,这种过渡的效果取决于 BEV 和 PHEV 的使用方式。本文分析了 2018-2020 年荷兰全国出行调查的数据,以评估单车家庭在四种车辆类型中的出行行为:ICEV、HEV、PHEV 和 BEV。具体而言,我们关注通勤和非通勤目的的每日出行频率和车辆行驶公里数(VKT),同时研究这些车辆使用模式与车辆属性、社会经济和人口因素以及建筑环境之间的关联。我们的描述性分析表明,与 ICEV 和 HEV 用户相比,BEV 和 PHEV 用户每天通勤和非通勤出行的 VKT 都明显更长。模型结果显示,在对各种因素进行控制后,与其他动力总成类型相比,BEV 在非通勤出行中的日 VKT 更短,而在通勤出行中却没有观察到这种模式。值得注意的是,没有证据表明使用 BEV 和 PHEV 动力系统会产生反弹效应。此外,与私人拥有的车辆相比,租赁或公司车辆(无论动力总成类型如何)具有更高的日总行驶里程(VKT)和更高的出行概率。在 BEV 和 PHEV 用户中观察到的较高的日 VKT 很大程度上是由于他们的车辆是租赁车辆或公司车辆,而非动力系统类型本身。
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引用次数: 0
Travel decision making under uncertainty and road traffic behavior: The multifold role of ambiguity attitude 不确定性下的出行决策与道路交通行为:模糊态度的多重作用
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104326
Jingjing Zeng , Zheng Li , David A. Hensher
To connect commuters’ uncertain mode choices with traffic behavior in the presence of travel time variability, we develop a dynamic traffic simulation in terms of an agent-based model, which consists of two sub-models, the mode choice model and the traffic flow simulation model. The modeling framework accommodates the interplay between mode choice and traffic behaviors and their co-evolution over time. We embed an extended list of empirical parameters including ambiguity/risk attitudes and time-money trade-offs within a rank-dependent and mode-dependent utility framework to imitate commuters’ daily mode choice behaviors. The improved behavioral realism at the micro-level results in more realistic outputs such as modal split and average speed at equilibrium. The evidence demonstrates that a richer representation of mode choice behavior at the individual level is associated with a gain in aggregating them to the level of system behavior, in which ambiguity seeking, a typical behavior in the loss domain but largely ignored in the transport literature, plays an important role.
为了将通勤者在旅行时间可变情况下的不确定模式选择与交通行为联系起来,我们开发了一种基于代理的动态交通模拟模型,该模型由两个子模型组成,即模式选择模型和交通流模拟模型。该模型框架考虑了模式选择和交通行为之间的相互作用以及它们随时间的共同演变。我们将包括模糊性/风险态度和时间-金钱权衡在内的经验参数扩展列表嵌入等级依赖型和模式依赖型效用框架中,以模仿通勤者的日常模式选择行为。微观层面行为真实性的提高带来了更真实的输出,如均衡时的模式分配和平均速度。证据表明,在个人层面对模式选择行为进行更丰富的表征,与将其汇总到系统行为层面的收益相关联,在系统行为中,模糊性寻求是损失领域的典型行为,但在交通文献中大多被忽视。
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引用次数: 0
Digital payment adoption in public transportation: Mediating role of mode choice segments in developing cities 公共交通领域的数字支付应用:发展中城市中模式选择环节的中介作用
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104319
Shahiq Ahmad Wani , Agnivesh Pani , Ranju Mohan , Basuraj Bhowmik
The emergence of digital payments, propelled by technology advancements, is revolutionising how we transact and pay for goods and services, ushering in the era of convenience and efficiency. The numerous benefits of these systems have prompted public transportation agencies to implement them. Understanding the factors influencing such technology adoption in the early stages is necessary. While limited research in the transportation sector exists, it is mainly focused on mobile ticketing or conducted before the adoption of digital payment technology. The former is not yet widespread in developing countries as they still have a human-driven system. This study presents a two-step methodology for analysing the population using a segmentation approach done using Latent class cluster analysis (LCCA) and thereby analysing each cluster and total data to evaluate the factors influencing the adoption of digital payments through ML classification algorithms – Decision trees, Random Forest and XGBoost. Trip parameters as model indicators and socio-demographic constructs as covariates are input to LCCA, resulting in seven clusters labelled Satisfied P.T. Users (24.48 %), Access-Concerned IPT Users (20.22 %), Satisfied MTW Users (12.91 %), Information-Concerned MTW Users (12.16 %), Comfort-Concerned Car Users (11.21 %), Safety-Concerned Captive P.T. Users (10.09 %) and Comfort-Concerned MTW Users (8.93 %). A comparison of the model predictions, accuracies and important features highlights that XGBoost is best performing for most of the clusters. Results indicated that the different segments exhibit different properties. Prior use of travel apps, type of phone owned, internet availability, and age significantly influence the adoption of digital payment. The study highlights the importance of understanding the different user segments and tailoring the digital payment technologies accordingly to promote their adoption in Public transportation. The study can help policymakers shape technological decisions and encourage technology use. Future studies can explore the attitudinal aspects of commuters and employ advanced analytical methods for further exploration.
在技术进步的推动下,数字支付的出现正在彻底改变我们交易和支付商品与服务的方式,开创了便捷高效的时代。这些系统的众多优势促使公共交通机构纷纷采用。在早期阶段,有必要了解影响此类技术应用的因素。虽然交通领域的研究有限,但主要集中在移动票务方面,或在采用数字支付技术之前进行。前者在发展中国家尚未普及,因为这些国家仍采用人工驱动系统。本研究采用潜类聚类分析(LCCA)的细分方法,通过决策树、随机森林和 XGBoost 等 ML 分类算法,对每个聚类和全部数据进行分析,从而评估采用数字支付的影响因素。作为模型指标的行程参数和作为协变量的社会人口结构被输入到 LCCA 中,从而产生了七个聚类,分别为满意的 P.T. 用户(24.48 %)、关注访问的 IPT 用户(20.22 %)、满意的 MTW 用户(12.91 %)、关注信息的 MTW 用户(12.16 %)、关注舒适的汽车用户(11.21 %)、关注安全的 Captive P.T. 用户(10.09 %)和关注舒适的 MTW 用户(8.93 %)。对模型预测结果、准确率和重要特征进行比较后发现,XGBoost 在大多数群组中表现最佳。结果表明,不同的细分市场表现出不同的特性。之前使用过旅行应用程序、拥有的手机类型、互联网可用性和年龄都对数字支付的采用有很大影响。这项研究强调了了解不同用户群并相应调整数字支付技术以促进其在公共交通领域应用的重要性。这项研究可以帮助政策制定者制定技术决策并鼓励使用技术。未来的研究可以探讨乘客的态度问题,并采用先进的分析方法进行进一步探索。
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引用次数: 0
Transportation infrastructure, comparative advantage, and regional specialization: Evidence from China’s high-speed railway network 交通基础设施、比较优势和地区专业化:中国高速铁路网的证据
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104334
Yabin Pi , Yanzhen Wang
Using the quasi-natural experiment of China’s high-speed railway (HSR), this paper investigates the impact of transportation infrastructure on regional specialization, focusing on the differential effects on sectors with varying degrees of comparative advantages. Constructing a multi-region and multi-sector spatial economic model that includes Ricardian comparative advantage, we find that the reduction in trade costs leads to increases in market access but also intensifies local market competition, disproportionately benefiting sectors with comparative advantages. Empirical analysis of prefecture-level data from 2006 to 2016 reveals that HSR connection positively impacts industries with comparative advantages, but has negative impacts on industries without comparative advantages. This research introduces a new mechanism by which transportation infrastructure influences regional specialization: it disproportionately benefits industries with initial comparative advantages, thereby accelerating their growth relative to industries without comparative advantages. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers aiming to optimize industrial structure planning in HSR-connected cities. Specifically, policymakers should consider both the reliance on HSR transportation and initial comparative advantages when planning industrial structures.
本文利用中国高速铁路(高铁)这一准自然实验,研究了交通基础设施对区域专业化的影响,重点关注对具有不同程度比较优势的部门的不同影响。通过构建一个包含李嘉图比较优势的多地区、多部门空间经济模型,我们发现,贸易成本的降低会导致市场准入的增加,但同时也会加剧当地的市场竞争,使具有比较优势的部门不成比例地受益。对 2006 年至 2016 年县级数据的实证分析表明,高铁连接对具有比较优势的行业产生了积极影响,但对不具有比较优势的行业产生了负面影响。这项研究引入了交通基础设施影响区域专业化的新机制:它使具有初始比较优势的产业不成比例地受益,从而加速了这些产业相对于无比较优势产业的增长。研究结果为旨在优化高铁连接城市产业结构规划的政策制定者提供了宝贵的见解。具体而言,政策制定者在规划产业结构时,应同时考虑对高铁交通的依赖和初始比较优势。
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Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice
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