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Resilience evaluation and improvement of post-disaster multimodal transportation networks 灾后多式联运网络的复原力评估与改进
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104243

As a type of critical infrastructure, multimodal transportation networks are susceptible to disturbances from natural disasters and intentional attacks. Resilience reflects the performance of a multimodal transportation network after suffering from a disaster, and the failure of this network influences the public life and induces economic losses. This research aims to evaluate and improve the resilience of post-disaster multimodal intercity transportation networks to mitigate negative influences of disturbances. A comprehensive resilience performance metric, accounting for influences on unserved demand and adaptation of served demand was proposed to evaluate the resilience of multimodal transportation networks. The multimodal traffic assignment model was developed to derive the components of this comprehensive performance metric, integrating user equilibrium and modal split, while considering the capacity upper bound of some links. A route-based link recovery sequence was also proposed to improve network resilience, taking into account interdependencies and utilization of damaged links. The operational measure of capacity enlargement of functioning links was adopted to supplement the recovery sequence. The proposed resilience evaluation and improvement method was applied to a multimodal transportation network, namely, the constituent road, rail, and air networks in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei–Shandong region. Results show that the proposed route-based strategy outperforms volume-based, betweenness-based, and random strategies in enhancing resilience. Capacity enlargement of functioning links can further improve resilience by accommodating more affected demand, particularly effectively in scenarios characterized by inefficient repair sequences, higher fixed demand and a larger punishment multiplier. These findings highlight the interdependencies of links in establishing the recovery sequence, capacity enlargement in challenging scenarios, and enhanced availability and convenience of transportation modes to promote multimodal network resilience after a disruption.

作为关键基础设施的一种,多式联运网络很容易受到自然灾害和蓄意攻击的干扰。抗灾能力反映了多式联运网络在遭受灾害后的表现,该网络的失灵会影响公众生活并造成经济损失。本研究旨在评估和提高灾后城际多式联运网络的恢复能力,以减轻干扰带来的负面影响。研究提出了一种综合弹性性能指标,考虑了对未服务需求的影响和已服务需求的适应性,以评估多式联运网络的弹性。开发了多式交通分配模型,以推导出这一综合性能指标的组成部分,整合了用户平衡和模式分裂,同时考虑了一些链接的容量上限。考虑到相互依存关系和受损链路的利用率,还提出了基于路径的链路恢复序列,以提高网络弹性。此外,还采用了扩大正常运行链路容量的操作措施来补充恢复序列。将所提出的弹性评估和改进方法应用于多式联运网络,即京津冀-山东地区的公路、铁路和航空组成网络。结果表明,在提高弹性方面,所提出的基于路径的策略优于基于体积、基于间度和随机的策略。扩大正常运行链路的容量可容纳更多的受影响需求,从而进一步提高恢复能力,特别是在维修序列效率低下、固定需求较高和惩罚乘数较大的情况下,效果尤为显著。这些研究结果突出表明,在建立恢复顺序、在具有挑战性的情况下扩大容量以及提高运输方式的可用性和便利性方面,各连接点之间存在相互依存关系,从而促进多式联运网络在中断后的恢复能力。
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引用次数: 0
Nonlinear influences of landscape configurations and walking access to transit services on travel satisfaction 景观配置和步行到达公交服务对旅行满意度的非线性影响
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104232

Walking, as a form of active travel, has played a significant role in facilitating sustainable transport and the development of the built environment. A growing number of studies have examined the relationships between the built environment and active travel trips around transit stations. However, travellers’ propensity to walk to transit stops and their travel satisfaction with doing so, particularly for first-mile trips, and its relationship with the built environment, in developing countries, have so far received little attention in the literature. Thus, this paper examines the nonlinear influences of landscape configurations, walking access to transit services and the interactions between them on travel satisfaction. Gradient boosting decision tree models are used to control for trip attributes and factors related to the built environment both in residential areas and business/commercial districts where a lot of transit stations are located. We combine street view data and individual survey data for the Beijing metropolitan area to document that improving walking access to transit services has significant effects on travel satisfaction. The results show that landscape configurations tend to have nonlinear associations with walking access to transit services as well as having pronounced interaction effects on travel satisfaction. The findings of this study demonstrate the importance of planning the spatial placement of stations to make them more convenient and improve people’s travel satisfaction with first-mile journeys made on foot.

步行作为一种积极的出行方式,在促进可持续交通和建筑环境发展方面发挥了重要作用。越来越多的研究探讨了公交站点周围的建筑环境与积极出行之间的关系。然而,迄今为止,发展中国家的文献很少关注旅客步行至公交站点的倾向及其出行满意度(尤其是第一英里出行)及其与建筑环境之间的关系。因此,本文研究了景观配置、步行到达公交服务设施的非线性影响,以及它们之间对旅行满意度的相互作用。本文采用梯度提升决策树模型来控制出行属性以及与公交站点密集的居民区和商业区建筑环境相关的因素。我们将北京大都市区的街景数据和个人调查数据结合起来,证明改善公交服务的步行可达性对出行满意度有显著影响。研究结果表明,景观配置往往与步行到达公交服务具有非线性关联,并且对出行满意度具有明显的交互效应。这项研究的结果表明,规划站点的空间布局非常重要,可以使其更加便利,并提高人们对步行第一英里行程的出行满意度。
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引用次数: 0
Transport disadvantage and social inclusion: Exploring the role of smartphone use for transport purposes 交通劣势与社会包容:探索为交通目的使用智能手机的作用
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104240

The link between transport disadvantage and social exclusion is now firmly-established. Smartphones emerge as an integral part of daily life with a strong potential to influence this link by improving people’s capacity to access transport information and availability, and enabling direct connections with others in society. However, the role of smartphone use for transport purposes in influencing people’s daily mobility and quality of life remains under-studied, in part impeding a more concrete discourse on how it can be better evaluated and considered in policymaking. This study seeks to shed light on the above issue through probing into the interrelationships among smartphone use, transport disadvantage and social inclusion, and their relation to subjective well-being. Using Beijing as a case study, we tested a series of hypotheses through structural equation models (SEM). Our findings highlighted potentially bidirectional interactions between smartphone use and transport disadvantage. By and large, smartphone use for both normal purposes and new modes can help mitigate transport disadvantage, and this may further stimulate more smartphone use as a proactive solution. Furthermore, the link between smartphone use for new modes and transport cost, and their consequent effect on social inclusion and subjective well-being were found to vary between low- and high-income groups. Findings suggest that smartphones and smart apps should be carefully integrated in policymaking to reduce the risk for people of being socially excluded due to a lack of transport options and improve subjective well-being.

交通不便与社会排斥之间的联系现已牢固确立。智能手机作为日常生活中不可或缺的一部分,通过提高人们获取交通信息和可用性的能力,并实现与社会其他人的直接联系,具有影响这种联系的强大潜力。然而,智能手机在交通方面的使用对人们的日常出行和生活质量的影响仍未得到充分研究,这在一定程度上阻碍了对如何在决策中更好地评估和考虑智能手机的使用进行更具体的讨论。本研究试图通过探究智能手机的使用、交通劣势和社会包容之间的相互关系,以及它们与主观幸福感之间的关系来揭示上述问题。以北京为例,我们通过结构方程模型(SEM)检验了一系列假设。我们的研究结果凸显了智能手机使用与交通劣势之间潜在的双向互动关系。总体而言,智能手机的正常使用和新模式的使用都有助于缓解交通劣势,这可能会进一步刺激更多的人使用智能手机作为一种积极的解决方案。此外,研究还发现,智能手机用于新模式与交通成本之间的联系,以及由此对社会包容和主观幸福感的影响,在低收入群体和高收入群体之间存在差异。研究结果表明,应将智能手机和智能应用程序谨慎地纳入政策制定中,以降低人们因缺乏交通选择而被社会排斥的风险,并改善主观幸福感。
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引用次数: 0
Does the shipping alliance aggravate or alleviate container shipping market volatility 航运联盟加剧还是缓解了集装箱航运市场的波动
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104231

Frequent and dramatic container shipping market turbulence has caused concerns among shipping stakeholders and governments around the world. While exogenous shocks such as economic recessions and pandemics are attributed to such turbulence, the changing shipping market structure with the formation of shipping alliances could also play a moderating role. The US government has begun to stipulate stricter policies that restrict shipping alliance development and aim to stabilize the freight rate. In this paper, we examine how shipping alliances can moderate freight rate volatility in the container shipping market. An analytical economic model is first derived to generate theoretical predictions, and an empirical study is then conducted by using real-world shipping market data to verify the theoretical predictions. Specifically, our analytical results suggest that shipping alliances can aggravate the volatility of freight rates when the market shock is from the demand side while alleviating the volatility caused from the supply side. Moreover, shipping alliances always lead to lower volatility in port charges. When the shipping demand (or shipping fuel price, respectively) is stochastic, the alliance-induced cost savings through economies of scale have no impact (or increases, respectively) on differences in volatility in both port charges and shipping freights with and without a shipping alliance. On the basis of panel data of 10 selected Chinese major container shipping routes from 2010 to 2021, a panel data regression model with two-way fixed effects (TWFE) is estimated. The empirical results confirm our analytical conclusions. We construct an integrated economic model to reveal that shipping alliances can affect market risk in a rather implicit way, i.e., through freight rate volatility, which has not been explored. Moreover, our empirical study results support the theoretical results and accurately quantify the impacts of shipping alliances on main international container shipping routes, thereby providing related policy implications for regulators.

频繁而剧烈的集装箱航运市场动荡引起了全球航运利益相关者和政府的担忧。虽然经济衰退和大流行病等外来冲击是造成这种动荡的原因,但随着航运联盟的形成,航运市场结构的变化也可能起到缓和作用。美国政府已开始制定更严格的政策,限制航运联盟的发展,旨在稳定运费。本文研究了航运联盟如何缓和集装箱航运市场的运费波动。本文首先推导出一个经济分析模型,得出理论预测,然后利用真实航运市场数据进行实证研究,验证理论预测。具体来说,我们的分析结果表明,当市场冲击来自需求方时,航运联盟会加剧运费的波动,而来自供应方的冲击则会缓解运费的波动。此外,航运联盟总是能降低港口费用的波动性。当航运需求(或航运燃料价格)是随机的,联盟通过规模经济节省的成本对有无航运联盟的港口费和运费的波动差异没有影响(或分别增加)。基于 2010 年至 2021 年中国 10 条主要集装箱航线的面板数据,我们估算了双向固定效应(TWFE)面板数据回归模型。实证结果证实了我们的分析结论。我们构建了一个综合经济模型,揭示了航运联盟能够以一种相当隐性的方式(即通过运费波动)影响市场风险,而这一点尚未得到探讨。此外,我们的实证研究结果支持了理论结果,并准确量化了航运联盟对主要国际集装箱航运路线的影响,从而为监管机构提供了相关的政策启示。
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引用次数: 0
Classifying 15-minute Cities: A review of worldwide practices 15 分钟城市分类:全球实践回顾
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104234

Amongst the most popular alternatives to the current car-dominant planning model to have emerged in recent times is the 15-minute City (15mC). The 15mC prioritises the notion of local living. It seeks to address the pressing challenges of urban life by promoting lifestyles largely independent of motorised travel modes by focusing on active mobility and proximity to essential amenities. Despite the popularity of this concept, a knowledge gap exists regarding the diverse range of international practical definitions, strategies, instruments, and implementation experiences, as well as the requirements for, and challenges involved in, operationalising the 15mC and related concepts.

Consequently, this paper seeks to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the implementation of 15-minute cities and associated practices worldwide by combining an extensive literature review of both academic and grey literature sources with an expert survey. This culminates in the creation of a classification typology for the 15mC, based on the diversity of contexts and practices found, and informed by the Diffusion of Innovations Theory (DOI). Almost one hundred cities were identified as either in the process of implementing or planning to implement the 15mC concept. A diverse assortment of associated practices was identified, ranging from supporting active mobility to repurposing car space for other uses, promoting mixed land use and densification, and encouraging citizen engagement, among others. However, most cities are in the initial stages of executing their 15mC strategies, with the majority of practices still in the planning phase.

Although cities worldwide have shown considerable interest in the 15mC concept, many have yet to embark on adopting comprehensive strategies or measures aimed at achieving more radical change, notably in areas such as logistics and governance.

近期出现的最受欢迎的替代目前以汽车为主导的规划模式的方案之一是 15 分钟城市(15mC)。15 分钟城市 "将本地生活概念放在首位。它致力于解决城市生活所面临的紧迫挑战,通过注重积极的移动性和邻近必要的便利设施,提倡基本不依赖机动车出行的生活方式。因此,本文试图通过对学术和灰色文献资料进行广泛的文献综述,并结合专家调查,对全球 15 分钟城市的实施情况和相关实践进行全面分析。最终,根据所发现的背景和实践的多样性,并借鉴创新扩散理论(DOI),为 15 分钟城市创建了一个分类类型。近百个城市被确定为正在实施或计划实施 15mC 概念。这些城市的相关实践多种多样,包括支持积极的流动性、将汽车空间重新用于其他用途、促进土地混合使用和密集化,以及鼓励市民参与等等。尽管全球城市对 15mC 概念表现出了浓厚的兴趣,但许多城市尚未开始采取旨在实现更彻底变革的综合战略或措施,尤其是在物流和治理等领域。
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引用次数: 0
“Let the Driver off the Hook?” moral decisions of autonomous cars and their impact on consumer well-being "放任司机?"自动驾驶汽车的道德决策及其对消费者福祉的影响
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104224

Equipped with sophisticated, AI-based driver assistance systems, passenger cars are becoming increasingly intelligent. It seems that in a matter of a few years, fully autonomous vehicles will operate without any driver intervention. In this context, researchers are addressing the question of how fully automated vehicles should make decisions in critical situations. Should they spare the driver, children jumping out into the road or elderly people standing on the sidewalk? Projects such as MIT’s Moral Machine are investigating the preferences of people from different nations and cultures for ethical decision algorithms. Evaluations of these automated decisions and how the may impact consumer perception and well-being are still scarce. In our experimental study, participants experienced a simulator-based driving situation in a fully autonomous car, after which they were confronted with alternative scenarios requiring automated action by the car in a critical situation. We measured the emotional status and well-being of our test-persons (N=33) in those critical situations using facial expression recognition (FER), electroencephalography (EEG), and standardized questions. The results show that there are detectable differences between the scenarios with respect to emotions as well as subjective well-being and behavioral intentions in the test group’s responses to the questionnaire. Regarding FER and EEG, no statistically significant differences could be shown due to the small subsample.

乘用车配备了先进的人工智能驾驶辅助系统,变得越来越智能。似乎再过几年,全自动驾驶汽车将在没有任何驾驶员干预的情况下运行。在此背景下,研究人员正在研究全自动驾驶汽车在危急情况下应如何做出决策的问题。它们是否应该放过驾驶员、跳到马路上的儿童或站在人行道上的老人?麻省理工学院的 "道德机器"(Moral Machine)等项目正在调查来自不同国家和文化的人们对道德决策算法的偏好。对这些自动决策以及它们如何影响消费者的感知和福祉的评估仍然很少。在我们的实验研究中,参与者在一辆完全自动驾驶的汽车中体验了基于模拟器的驾驶情境,之后他们又面临了需要汽车在危急情况下自动采取行动的其他情景。我们使用面部表情识别(FER)、脑电图(EEG)和标准化问题测量了测试者(33 人)在这些危急情况下的情绪状态和幸福感。结果表明,在测试组对问卷的回答中,不同情景下的情绪、主观幸福感和行为意向都存在可察觉的差异。至于 FER 和 EEG,由于子样本较少,在统计上无法显示显著差异。
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引用次数: 0
Synergizing shared micromobility and public transit towards an equitable multimodal transportation network 协同共享微型交通和公共交通,打造公平的多式联运网络
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104225

This paper assesses the equity impacts of shared micromobility and investigates regulatory policies that improve transport equity and promote synergy between public transit and shared micromobility. We consider a multimodal transportation network, where a micromobility platform deploys docking stations and operates a fleet of micromobility vehicles to provide shared micromobility services and a public transit agency offers transit services over a transportation network. A market equilibrium model is developed to capture the intimate interactions among access and egress times of shared micromobility services, waiting times of transit services, the spatial distribution of docking stations, passenger demand, platform pricing and fleet sizing, vehicle repositioning and the micromobility platform profit. The platform decision problem is cast as a high-dimensional non-convex program. A solution method is proposed to efficiently compute the solution through problem reformulation and dimensionality reduction. Based on the proposed framework, we evaluate spatial equity in transport accessibility using the Gini index, and find that although shared micromobility improves overall transport accessibility, the benefits are not fairly distributed across different geographic zones, which leads to enlarged spatial inequity gaps after introducing shared micromobility. To promote transport equity, we investigate three policy directions: (a) to impose a vehicle density floor on shared micromobility; (b) to offer a subsidy on shared micromobility rides for first/last-mile connections; and (c) to promote collaboration between public transit and shared micromobility. We show that different regulatory policies have advantages and limitations. The minimum vehicle density requirement can simultaneously improve spatial equity and passengers’ surplus, but has limited equity improvements. In contrast, the subsidy on bundled services could significantly mitigate spatial inequity, but it hurts passengers and the platform profit. Compared to the other two policies, the transit-micromobility collaboration can lead to higher equity improvement, higher passenger surplus, while offering a guarantee on the platform profit, which turns out to be the most cost-effective approach. These insights are validated through realistic numerical studies for San Francisco.

本文评估了共享微型交通对公平性的影响,并研究了可改善交通公平性并促进公共交通与共享微型交通之间协同作用的监管政策。我们考虑了一个多式联运网络,在该网络中,微型交通平台部署停靠站并运营微型交通车队,以提供共享微型交通服务,而公共交通机构则通过交通网络提供公交服务。我们建立了一个市场均衡模型,以捕捉共享微移动服务的进出时间、公交服务的等待时间、停靠站的空间分布、乘客需求、平台定价和车队规模、车辆重新定位以及微移动平台利润之间的密切互动。平台决策问题是一个高维非凸程序。我们提出了一种求解方法,通过问题重构和降维来高效计算解。基于所提出的框架,我们利用基尼指数对交通可达性的空间公平性进行了评估,发现虽然共享微型交通改善了整体交通可达性,但其收益在不同地理区域的分配并不公平,这导致引入共享微型交通后空间不公平差距的扩大。为促进交通公平,我们研究了三个政策方向:(a)对共享微型交通设置车辆密度下限;(b)对共享微型交通的首/末公里连接提供乘车补贴;以及(c)促进公共交通与共享微型交通之间的合作。我们发现,不同的监管政策各有优势和局限。最低车辆密度要求可同时改善空间公平性和乘客剩余,但对公平性的改善有限。相比之下,对捆绑服务的补贴可以显著缓解空间不公平,但却损害了乘客和平台的利润。与其他两种政策相比,公交-微交通合作能带来更高的公平性改善和更高的乘客盈余,同时还能保证平台利润,是最具成本效益的方法。这些见解通过对旧金山的实际数值研究得到了验证。
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引用次数: 0
Remote high-speed rail stations, urban land supply, and the emergence of new economic activities 偏远的高铁站、城市土地供应和新经济活动的出现
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104226

This study investigates the influence of high-speed rail (HSR) station placements on urban economic activities within cities. Specifically, we assess their effects on government-driven new land supply and market-driven emerging economic activities. Using data from 2007 to 2017, our analysis encompasses 720 HSR stations across 319 Chinese cities, with a focus on remote stations situated in the peripheral counties. Our findings reveal that remote HSR stations typically function as new city subcenters. They consistently drive the expansion of both land supply and economic activities (distance effect) and draw them toward the quadrant surrounding the station (direction effect). However, the alignment between their impacts on land supply and economic activities varies based on the city characteristics. In cities experiencing population declines, remote HSR stations notably affect land supply but have a negligible influence on economic activities, leading to resource misallocation and an increased risk of ghost towns. Furthermore, better HSR accessibility and higher tertiary industry proportions can magnify the spatial spillover effects of HSR station location on both land supply and economic activities.

本研究探讨了高速铁路(高铁)车站布局对城市内部经济活动的影响。具体而言,我们评估了高铁对政府主导的新增土地供应和市场主导的新兴经济活动的影响。利用 2007 年至 2017 年的数据,我们分析了中国 319 个城市的 720 个高铁站,重点关注位于周边县市的偏远高铁站。我们的研究结果表明,偏远地区的高铁站通常具有新城市副中心的功能。它们持续推动土地供应和经济活动的扩张(距离效应),并将它们吸引到车站周围的区域(方向效应)。然而,它们对土地供应和经济活动的影响之间的一致性因城市特征而异。在人口减少的城市,偏远的高铁站对土地供应的影响显著,但对经济活动的影响却微乎其微,从而导致资源配置不当,增加了鬼城的风险。此外,高铁通达性越好,第三产业比例越高,高铁站位置对土地供应和经济活动的空间溢出效应就越大。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the effectiveness of financial incentives on electric vehicle adoption in Europe: Multi-period difference-in-difference approach 评估欧洲采用电动汽车的财政激励措施的有效性:多期差分法
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104217

Electric vehicles (EVs) are considered a promising alternative to achieve a cleaner transportation sector. In the last decade, European countries have implemented financial incentive policies to boost EV adoption. This paper estimates the impacts of these policies on EV adoption in Europe using data from 30 countries from 2012 to 2021 and a multi-period difference-in-differences approach. Our results reveal that purchase incentive policies are associated with increased registrations of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, and that the effect holds over time. However, the magnitude and duration of these effects are more significant for battery electric vehicles. Ownership incentive policies do not contribute to EV registrations for either type. Further, the results suggest that policy impacts vary between countries with different levels of gross domestic product per capita and renewable energy consumption. These results contribute to the literature on evaluating financial incentive policies for EV adoption, enabling improved decision making by policymakers.

电动汽车(EV)被认为是实现清洁交通部门的一种有前途的替代方案。过去十年间,欧洲各国纷纷实施财政激励政策,以推动电动汽车的采用。本文利用 30 个国家 2012 年至 2021 年的数据,采用多期差分法估算了这些政策对欧洲电动汽车采用率的影响。我们的研究结果表明,购买激励政策与电池电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车注册量的增加有关,而且这种影响会随着时间的推移而持续。然而,这些影响的程度和持续时间对电池电动汽车更为显著。所有权激励政策对这两类电动汽车的注册量均无促进作用。此外,研究结果表明,在人均国内生产总值和可再生能源消费水平不同的国家,政策影响也不尽相同。这些结果有助于对电动汽车采用的财政激励政策进行评估,从而改进政策制定者的决策。
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引用次数: 0
How contraflow enhances clearance time during assisted mass evacuation – A case study exploring the Australian 2013–14 Gippsland bushfires 对流如何在协助大规模疏散过程中延长疏散时间--澳大利亚 2013-14 年吉普斯兰丛林大火案例研究
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104197

Evacuation during a catastrophic disaster is a crucial operation that needs to be appropriately managed and is of more importance when considering the elderly and people with disabilities. The uncertain and unpredictable nature of disasters can cause long-term repercussions, especially in traffic congestion. This study presents a mathematical model to formulate traffic balance for regular and assisted evacuation (that is, disabled and the elderly) whilst considering traffic congestion in evacuation clearance time by applying contraflow. A Branch and Price (B&P) related approach is developed to help solve the proposed model in large-size problems. The presented algorithm is applied to a case study of Australia’s 2013–14 bushfires in Gippsland, located in the eastern part of Victoria. A variation test is performed to evaluate the robustness of results generated by the developed model. Results indicate that the participation percentage of edges is different based on their location, capacity, and sustainability of blockage. The edges’ capacity influences the evacuated population most compared to route capacity and time window. The output of this approach enables authorities to improve the resilience of communities by making optimal strategic and operational decisions for enhancing an evacuation response as well as influencing appropriate policies.

灾难发生时的疏散是一项需要妥善管理的重要工作,如果考虑到老年人和残疾人,则显得更为重要。灾害的不确定性和不可预测性会造成长期影响,尤其是交通拥堵。本研究提出了一个数学模型,用于制定常规疏散和辅助疏散(即残疾人和老年人)的交通平衡,同时通过采用逆向流来考虑疏散通关时间内的交通拥堵问题。此外,还开发了一种与分支和价格(B&P)相关的方法,以帮助解决所提出的大型问题模型。所提出的算法被应用于 2013-14 年澳大利亚吉普斯兰(位于维多利亚州东部)丛林大火的案例研究。为评估所开发模型生成结果的稳健性,进行了变异测试。结果表明,边缘的参与比例因其位置、容量和阻塞的可持续性而不同。与路线容量和时间窗口相比,边缘的容量对疏散人口的影响最大。这种方法的输出结果可帮助有关部门做出最佳战略和操作决策,以加强疏散响应并影响适当的政策,从而提高社区的抗灾能力。
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Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice
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