Modelling study on pedestrian evacuation dynamics considering exit selection behaviour under flood disaster

Abstract

Flood spreading in metro stations is a dangerous hazard that frequently causes casualties and property losses. However, pedestrian evacuation under flood spreading scenarios has not been fully investigated. To fill this gap,we propose an extend Floor-Field model incorporating flood spreading and exit selection behaviour of individuals. In the model, the dynamic flood spreading process on metro platforms is expressed by using a simulation software named Mike21. The optimal exit selected by pedestrians in each step is decided on three factors, that is pedestrian density around the exit, pedestrian distance to the exit, and water depth at the exit. Meanwhile, the movement speed of pedestrain also changes with the water depth at each time step. Based on this, the transition probability to neighbor cell including static field, dynamic field, height field, and water flow field is calculated. This results in a flood evacuation model considering the pedestrian's behaviour when choosing an exit. The effects of flooding, pedestrian density, different exit selection behaviours, water flow field, and inlet flow on evacuation were thoroughly analysed. The analysis demonstrates that the likelihood of flooding significantly impacts the evacuation of pedestrians from the subway station; the more flooding is taken into account, the more influential the impact. In addition, the effect of inlet flow on evacuation is also noteworthy; considering exit selection behaviour can significantly increase the effectiveness of evacuation. The study's findings can be used to develop evacuation plans for flooded metro stations.