Unveiling the Urban Impact on Mesoscale Convective System Rainfall in the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration Under Typical Synoptic Backgrounds

Abstract

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), the primary drivers of extreme rainfall over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) urban agglomeration, are strongly influenced by synoptic circulations and local geographical environments, including water bodies and topography. However, the urban impact on MCS rainfall under various synoptic backgrounds remain inadequately understood. Using a 20-year high-resolution MCS tracking database and self-organizing map clustering, three typical backgrounds for MCSs, namely weak monsoon-like, strong monsoon-like, and low-pressure system (Types-1 to 3), impacting the PRD are identified. These backgrounds exhibit pronounced disparities in MCS tracks and temporal variations as well as rainfall distributions. Urban heat island (UHI) significantly alters the spatial patterns under Types-1 and 2. Specifically, under weak UHI condition, MCS rainfall typically occurs offshore in the morning and shifts inland in the afternoon driven by the land-sea breeze. However, UHI modifies the low-level thermal structure, leading to anomalous convergence and instability, which causes morning rainfall to concentrate near coastal cities, while afternoon rainfall expands further inland to the northern rural region. Additionally, the strong southwesterly winds associated with Type-2 enhance the interaction between topography and urban impact, resulting in even higher rainfall anomalies (+28.9%) over the northeastern region. The findings highlight the crucial role of urban impact and their synergistic effect with synoptic backgrounds and other land surface processes on MCSs.