Identifying ecological factors mediating the spread of three invasive mosquito species: citizen science informed prediction

IF 4.3 1区 农林科学 Q1 ENTOMOLOGY Journal of Pest Science Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI:10.1007/s10340-024-01841-7
László Zsolt Garamszegi, Zoltán Soltész, Tamara Szentiványi, Kornélia Kurucz, Gergely Nagy, Ákos Bede-Fazekas
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Abstract

Due to their potential role in pathogen transmission, invasive mosquitoes pose considerable threats to human and animal health. Several studies have identified the most important ecological drivers mediating the establishment and spread of key mosquito species (e.g., Aedes aegypti, and Ae. albopictus), and made predictions for future distribution. We evaluated the effect of an exhaustive list of environmental predictors on the distribution of three invasive species in Hungary (Ae. albopictus, Ae. japonicus, and Ae. koreicus) by using the same standards for data collection based on citizen science observations. Current distribution maps of these species were generated from a 5-year survey, then were compared with various predictor maps reflecting climate, habitat type, food supply, traffic, and interspecific competition by using a boosted regression trees approach that resulted in a subset of variables with the strongest impact. The best predictor sets were used to predict the probability of occurrence of the focal species for the whole country, and these predictions based on citizen science were evaluated against the results of an independent recent field surveillance. We uncovered species-specific patterns and found that different predictor sets were selected for the three different species, and only predictions for Ae. albopictus could be validated with direct trapping data. Therefore, citizen science informed distribution maps can be used to identify ecological predictors that determine the spread of invasive mosquitoes, and to estimate risk based on the predicted distribution in the case of Ae. albopictus.

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确定介导三种入侵蚊子传播的生态因素:公民科学预测
由于其在病原体传播中的潜在作用,入侵蚊子对人类和动物健康构成了相当大的威胁。一些研究已经确定了介导主要蚊子物种(如埃及伊蚊和白纹伊蚊)建立和传播的最重要的生态驱动因素,并对未来的分布进行了预测。我们通过使用基于公民科学观测的相同数据收集标准,评估了详尽的环境预测因素清单对匈牙利三种入侵物种(白纹伊蚊、日本伊蚊和韩国伊蚊)分布的影响。通过为期 5 年的调查生成了这些物种的当前分布图,然后与反映气候、栖息地类型、食物供应、交通和种间竞争的各种预测图进行了比较,并采用了增强回归树方法,最终得出了影响最大的变量子集。最佳预测集被用来预测全国重点物种的出现概率,这些基于公民科学的预测与最近独立的实地监测结果进行了对比评估。我们发现了特定物种的模式,并发现针对三个不同物种选择了不同的预测集,只有针对白纹伊蚊的预测可以通过直接诱捕数据进行验证。因此,公民科学信息分布图可用于确定决定入侵蚊子传播的生态预测因子,并根据预测的白纹伊蚊分布情况来估计风险。
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来源期刊
Journal of Pest Science
Journal of Pest Science 生物-昆虫学
CiteScore
10.40
自引率
8.30%
发文量
114
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Journal of Pest Science publishes high-quality papers on all aspects of pest science in agriculture, horticulture (including viticulture), forestry, urban pests, and stored products research, including health and safety issues. Journal of Pest Science reports on advances in control of pests and animal vectors of diseases, the biology, ethology and ecology of pests and their antagonists, and the use of other beneficial organisms in pest control. The journal covers all noxious or damaging groups of animals, including arthropods, nematodes, molluscs, and vertebrates. Journal of Pest Science devotes special attention to emerging and innovative pest control strategies, including the side effects of such approaches on non-target organisms, for example natural enemies and pollinators, and the implementation of these strategies in integrated pest management. Journal of Pest Science also publishes papers on the management of agro- and forest ecosystems where this is relevant to pest control. Papers on important methodological developments relevant for pest control will be considered as well.
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