Monitoring monthly mortality of maricultured Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in Scotland II. A hierarchical dynamic linear model

Abstract

The sustainability of the salmon farming industry is being challenged by increased mortality rates. Scotland’s open-source salmon production data provides the possibility of developing an industry-wide mortality monitoring model, valuable for identifying and addressing unexpected increases in mortality without needing data sharing agreements across different companies. This study aimed to utilize these data to develop a hierarchical dynamic linear model (DLM) for monitoring monthly mortality of maricultured Atlantic salmon in Scotland. We evaluated whether considering the hierarchical structure present in the data (country, region, and site) would improve mortality predictions when compared to the production cycle level DLMs developed in a previous study. Our findings demonstrated that the hierarchical DLM outperformed the production cycle level DLMs, confirming the value of this more complex modelling approach. Nevertheless, the hierarchical model, like the production cycle level DLMs, exhibited some uncertainty in the mortality predictions. When mortality is higher than expected, site level warnings are generated, which can encourage producers and inspectors to further investigate the cause. Between 2015 and 2020, approximately 25% of the production cycles and 50% of the sites encountered at least one warning, with most warnings happening in the summer and autumn months. Additionally, the hierarchical model enabled monitoring mortality at multiple levels. This information is useful for various stakeholders as part of a monitoring system, offering insights into mortality trends at national, regional, and sites levels that may benefit from strategic resource management. Recommendations for model improvements include utilizing shorter data aggregation periods, such as weekly, which are not currently available as open-source data.